MONUC EXPECTATIONS OF TASK/SIZE INCREASE

C O N F I D E N T I A L KINSHASA 001339 SIPDIS DEPT FOR IO - J.W. SWIGERT E.O. 12958: DECL: 1.6X6 TAGS: PGOV PREL KPKO CG UN SUBJECT: MONUC EXPECTATIONS OF TASK/SIZE INCREASE REF: A. A. STATE 150717 ¶B. B. E-MAIL SANDERSON-EASTHAM 7/8/04 ¶C. C. KINSHASA 1050 ¶D. D. KINSHASA 1109 Classified By: Poloff Edward Bestic for Reasons 1.5 B and D ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: SRSG William Swing says MONUC needs more troops, and that UNSYG Kofi Annan is likely to support such a request. According to a mid-level MONUC source, the organization plans to ask for an additional 25,000 troops, increasing the annual cost to an estimated $2.2bn. The source said UN authorities in New York oppose such a large increase and think MONUC should focus on its core tasks, but MONUC officials have something closer to "maximalist" views. Swing is a realist, therefore we think his likely goal is to reach 15-18,000 troops, enough to strengthen the Kivus and Ituri brigades, the Neutral Force in Kinshasa, and give MONUC a rapid-reaction force. END SUMMARY. Swing: "We Need More Troops" -------------- ¶2. (C) Emboffs met with MONUC SRSG William Swing on July 8, to deliver talking points reftel. According to Swing, although his mission's mandate has expanded during the past year, its resources have not. Recent fighting in the Kivus demonstrated that MONUC cannot handle two crises at once. UNSYG Kofi Annan is likely to support a MONUC request for additional troops and police trainers, he said, in order to "avoid having to lower Congolese and international expectations of MONUC." Swing did not give specifics on the additional forces MONUC might request. New York, MONUC Debate Size/Tasks -------------- ¶3. (C) A mid-level MONUC source told poloff July 16 that MONUC military staff drafted a "very unrealistic" plan that asks for 25,000 additional troops, raising the mission's annual cost to an estimated $2.2 billion. (Note: MONUC's current authorized troop strength is 10,800. End note.) New York opposes so large an increase, and thinks MONUC should focus on essential peacekeeping tasks only. MONUC senior leaders, however, want to take something closer to a "maximalist" approach; the 25,000 requested increase is sincere, it is not simply a bargaining position. Speculating on MONUC leaders' thinking, the source said that many in the mission had previously served in Kosovo, and "don't realize they're no longer in the Balkans." Another factor is simply bureaucratic inertia and the tendency for organizational empire-building. ¶4. (SBU) The source confirmed that a team from DPKO arrived in Kinshasa July 15, to help prepare the Secretary-General's report on MONUC to the Security Council. (Note: DATT met with the team on July 15, and will report septel. End note.) COMMENT -------------- ¶5. (C) Swing is a realist, therefore we find it unlikely he himself seriously expects to triple MONUC's strength. A more likely goal is to reach 15-18,000 troops, enough to strengthen the Kivus and Ituri brigades, the Neutral Force in Kinshasa, and give MONUC a rapid-reaction force. In our view, the additional troops are necessary, but it is even more important for MONUC leaders to address long-standing problems such as poor internal communications, weak management in key field offices, and widely-differing levels of ability and motivation among the various troop contingents (see ref's C and D). END COMMENT. SCOTT