ECONOMIC REPORT - MARCH THROUGH JUNE 2004

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 05 KINSHASA 001140 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: EAID EAIR ECON ECPS EFIN EINV ELTN EMIN EPET ETRD PGOV PREL CG SUBJECT: ECONOMIC REPORT - MARCH THROUGH JUNE 2004 ¶1. SUMMARY. Prices and the exchange rate remain stable even through political difficulties. The mining sector has been extremely active. Mining company America Mineral Fields (Amfi) wins approval and signature of its USD 300 million contract and then changes its name to Adastra Minerals. The UK government has exonerated De Beers of accusations of OECD violations made by the UN Panel on Resource Exploitation. The Central Bank is liquidating the Bank of Commerce and Development. The local market is demanding pay by the second telecommunications charges. Truckers protested the high level of insecurity on the Matadi Road. Commercial flights between the DRC and Uganda are scheduled to resume. Zimbabwean investors bought the Hotel Karavia in Lubumbashi END SUMMARY. MONETARY AND PRICE UPDATE ¶2. Prices have remained largely stable throughout the recent political crises. Only a slight increase was registered in the past two weeks. Inflation, year-to-date, is at zero (0) percent. Currently, food stocks are high, keeping prices stable. However, the amount of rainfall north of Mbandaka in Equateur province has been abnormally low - as evidenced by the extremely low level of the Congo River at present - and if this affects food supplies, food prices would be likely to increase. On the contrary, the dry weather helps firewood and charcoal supplies - the other major daily consumables in the local economy. ¶3. The Congolese Franc (FC) has not fluctuated greatly over the past 2-3 months. The informal market rate hovers at FC 385-395 to the USD. A slight increase (FC 5 band trending up) was noted in Goma and Bukavu over the past two weeks. This may be due to the relative lack of economic activity and access to cash resulting from the ongoing instability. (Note. The exchange rate tends to be slightly higher - approx FC 400 to USD 1 - in the Kivus and Kisangani. It had only converged with the Kinshasa, Lubumbashi and Mbuji Mayi rates three weeks before the hostilities began. End Note.) MINING AMFI WINS INTERMINISTERIAL APPROVAL, CHANGES NAME ¶4. On Mar 12, America Mineral Fields (Amfi) won inter- ministerial approval from the GDRC cabinet for its joint venture with Gecamines for the Kolwezi Tailings project. Formal signing ceremonies took place on March 23 in Kinshasa. Amfi representatives in Kinshasa stated that the final hurdle to gaining approval was to convince the Presidency that no bribes had been paid in the course of negotiating the contract. The hurdle as explained to post was that the Presidency was so exceptionally surprised that AMFI got past Gecamines and the Mining Ministry that it was thought that a bribe must have been paid. IFC and IDC financing was held out as evidence of the inability of Amfi to resort to under-the-table deals. (Comment. Amfi did end up conceding to USD 15 million in lump sum payments to Gecamines, which could have expedited the deal seeing as the current senior management of Gecamines is scheduled to be fired in the near future. Bceco, one of the executing agencies of the World Bank in the DRC, recently posted in "l'Intelligent" a public offer of employment for the soon to be vacant senior management positions in Gecamines. End Comment.) Amfi also recently changed its name to Adastra Mineral and hired Rothschild as the primary financial advisor for the Kolwezi Tailing project. SENGAMINES BATTLES WITH GDRC ¶5. During March, the National Assembly of the GDRC and the Minister of Mines called on Sengamines to come into full compliance with Congolese law, according to Minister of Mines Diomi Ndongala. The specific requests are for the delivery of a feasibility study of the entire project and the inclusion of a member of Miba on Sengamines' governing board. (Note. Miba is a 20 percent shareholder in Sengamines. End Note.) Sengamines is currently resisting the addition of a Miba member to its governing board and as of yet has not presented a feasibility study. AFRICAN GOLD PLC ENTERING DRC ¶6. African Gold, PLC plans to form a joint venture with Tangold, Sprl of the DRC. Greendale Universal Holdings Limited is a shareholder. The preliminary agreement signed between Greendale and African Gold holds that African Gold has 90 days to conduct due diligence on the Tangold and the license agreement. African Gold must also complete a preliminary exploration program of the concerned concession (Portion 3 of Concession 38) and must also make a lump sum payment of USD 250,000. CADASTRE MINIER CHANGES MANAGEMENT ¶7. Cadastre Minier (Cami) had shut its doors indefinitely in protest of a declaration by Minister of Mines Diomi halting the processing of any further new mining concession applications. This dispute ended in the suspension of Director General Ambroise Mbaka, who argued that the Minister neither had the authority to halt its work nor had given sufficient justification for the action. Diomi has technical oversight of Cami and cited an unfavorable World Bank report on Cami for stopping the reception of new concession applications. Cami has not been accused of any improprieties and has been cited by several mining companies as being the most professional of all the services associated with the mining sector. Nevertheless, Mbaka is out, and the deputy director, Joseph Ngoma di Nzau is now interim director and has pledged to improve Cami's performance. METOREX TAKES SCANDAL PLAGUED MINE DE L'ETOILE ¶8. In May, South African mining junior Metorex recently signed a deal with the GDRC for the development of Mine de l'Etoile and Ruashi. Etoile was originally sold the Chemaf Sprl under suspicious circumstances. The contract - signed by Chemaf with Gecamines and the Mining Ministry - was annulled by Vice President Bemba. Metorex estimates that the mine could produce 42,500 tons of copper and 3,500 tons of cobalt per year with a life of 30 years. It holds a 52 percent stake while the GDRC reserves 20 percent and Sentinelle (a local firm) takes the remaining 28 percent. Estimated investment is approximately USD 200 million with a first tranche of USD 18-20 million to come in June. Metorex plans to raise the second and final tranche of USD 150-180 million in the next 18 months. KGHM PLANNING TO RETURN TO DRC ¶9. KGHM Polska Miedz is considering returning to the DRC to develop a copper/cobalt processing plant near Kimpe. The total cost of the project is approximately USD 10 million. Equipment is scheduled to be purchased from a Canadian supplier. MINING - DE BEERS EXONERATED BY UK AGENCY ¶10. In May, the UK Department of Trade and Industry determined that the allegations raised against De Beers by the UN Panel on Exploitation of Natural Resources in the DRC were unsubstantiated. The 2002 Panel report accused De Beers of violating OECD guidelines for multinational companies. MINING - GEOLOGICAL SURVEY OF KABINDA REGION PLANNED ¶11. Belgian mining consultants Bugeco is undertaking a USD 3 million geological/mineralogical survey of the Kabinda region of the DRC (East of Mbuji Mayi - Kasai Oriental). Bugeco also advises the GDRC on mining policy. MINING - 21 MINERS DIE NEAR TSHIKAPA ¶12. In early May, 21 artisanal diamond miners died near Tshikapa, Kasai Occidental, when a mudslide caused the walls SIPDIS of the pit in which they were digging to collapse. (Comment. This is not an infrequent occurrence. Pits are often dug too close together on unstable ground and are rarely reinforced rendering them vulnerable to collapse. End Comment.) BANKING - FORCED LIQUIDATION OF BCD ¶13. The Congolese Central Bank (BCC) recently began the forced liquidation of the Bank of Commerce and Development (BCD). This was a small national bank with offices in Kinshasa, Lubumbashi and the Kivus. The BCC estimates that the total cost to liquidate the bank and pay the severance packages of the workers should not total more than USD 5 million (less than USD 100,000 will be dedicated to severance pay). Priority for account reimbursement is focused on small account holders (e.g. less than USD 20,000 or FC 500,000). Only accounts and employees in Kinshasa and Lubumbashi will benefit from the liquidation. The GDRC has made the decision that since the BCC did not have control of the bank branches in the Kivus either during the war or currently, the account holders and employees in those branches will be left outside of the package. USD 2.5 million will be disbursed in June with the remaining USD 2.5 million being disbursed from July to December. TELECOMMUNICATIONS - FEE STRUCTURE ISSUES ¶14. The Union of Telecommunication Services Consumers (UCST) has filed a formal protest to the Ministry of Post, Telephones and Telegraph against the current fee structure utilized by cellular telecommunications providers in the DRC. Almost all providers have a pay by the minute system, rather than pay by the second. This increases costs to the consumer. (Comment. It is interesting that the market does not seem to have the power to influence the telecommunications providers through choice as in the US market where pay by the second fee structures have won through plan choice. End Comment.) INFRASTRUCTURE - NEW WATER SYSTEM FOR MUDUSA ¶15. The ICRC opened a new water provision system in Mudusa, South Kivu province on Mar 16. The system was developed in concert with the local NGO Initiatives et Actions pour le Developpement Local and will service the villages of Lwanvuhye, Cirhagabwa, Cirhundu and Lugusha - a population totaling approx 6,000 people. The project took four months to complete and involved the use of two springs in Musheweshwe, the rehabilitation of one reservoir and construction of another, and the installation of 18 water taps supplied by 6.5 km of piping. HEALTH - SLEEPING SICKNESS OUTBREAK IN WEST KASAI ¶16. In the Katende health zone of Kasai Occidental province an outbreak of sleeping sickness has occurred according to the director of the Congolese national program to fight trypanosomiasis, Dr. Victor Kande. More than a dozen cases have been reported. However, a greater number of people could easily be affected without GDRC knowledge due to the remoteness of many villages and the lack of adequate understanding of the disease by the local population. TRANSPORTATION - TRUCKER STRIKE ON MATADI ROAD ¶17. In March, truckers initiated a strike to protest the high level of insecurity on the Matadi Road (National Route No.1). Truckers attempted to increase security on their own by traveling in convoys. However, the loading delays at the Port of Matadi while waiting for enough trucks to form a convoy was not cost-effective for the shipping companies. Truckers asked for increased protection from the government. The Minister of Interior has increased military patrols on the road and a curfew of 18:00L for travel to improve security. Traffic is flowing more normally on the Matadi Road at present. CIVIL AVIATION - FLIGHTS FROM DRC TO UGANDA TO RESUME ¶18. The GDRC has reopened its airspace to commercial flights from Uganda. A memorandum of understanding between their respective civil aviation authorities provides the groundwork for the decision. However, a bilateral air agreement is still under review. HIV/AIDS AGREEMENT BETWEEN GDRC AND UNC ¶19. UN OCHA press reported that the GDRC has authorized the University of North Carolina to establish an office at the Kinshasa Referral Hospital to help improve the fight against HIV/AIDS. UNC will also train health personnel. INTERNET AND INFOTECH ¶20. Three companies, two of which are German (Keysystems and Nic.cd),are in a legal battle to gain control of the ".cd" top level domain registry for the DRC. The Ministry of Post, Telephone and Telegraph may have given control over the registry to the third company, Congo Internet Management. AID - WORLD BANK GRANT FOR DDR ¶21. In late May the World Bank approved a USD 100 million grant earmarked for the GDRC's Emergency DDR Plan. The program will support reinsertion of 150,000 demobilized troops and permit reallocation of government spending from the military to social and economic sectors. REAL ESTATE/TOURISM - PURCHASE OF HOTEL KARAVIA ¶22. Zimbabwean press reports that the Rainbow Tourism Group (RTG) has purchased the Hotel Karavia (250 rooms) in Lubumbashi. RTG intends to remodel and rename the hotel the Caribbean; it is the largest in Lubumbashi. The total cost is estimated at USD 1.8 million. (Note. RTG also manages the Sheraton Harare and either owns or manages the Rainbow Mercure Hotels, Touch the Wild Lodges and Safaris, and Tourism Services Zimbabwe. End Note.) ¶23. INFLATION BY CATEGORY (IN PERCENT) WEEK ENDING 03/12 03/19 03/26 04/02 FOOD -1 -2 -1 2 BEVERAGES 0 0 0 0 NON-FOOD -10 0 1 -2 CLOTHING 0 0 0 0 RENT 0 0 0 1 TRANSPORTATION 0 0 0 0 SCHOOL COSTS 0 0 0 0 UTILITIES 0 0 0 0 COMBINED FIGURES WEEKLY -8.0 -0.8 -0.3 0.8 MONTH TO DATE -0.5 -1.3 -1.6 -0.8 WEEK ENDING 04/09 04/16 04/23 04/30 FOOD -1 1 0 0 BEVERAGES 0 0 0 0 NON-FOOD 0 0 0 0 CLOTHING 0 0 0 0 RENT 0 0 0 0 TRANSPORTATION 0 0 0 0 SCHOOL COSTS 0 0 0 0 UTILITIES 0 0 0 0 COMBINED FIGURES WEEKLY -0.3 0.4 -0.2 -0.1 MONTH TO DATE -0.3 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 WEEK ENDING 05/07 05/14 05/21 05/28 FOOD 0 0 0 0 BEVERAGES 0 0 0 0 NON-FOOD 4 0 -4 0 CLOTHING 0 0 0 0 RENT 0 0 0 0 TRANSPORTATION 0 0 0 0 SCHOOL COSTS 0 0 0 0 UTILITIES 0 0 0 0 COMBINED FIGURES WEEKLY 0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.1 MONTH TO DATE 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 February 2004 inflation: 0.0 percent March 2004 inflation: -1.4 percent April 2004 inflation: -0.2 percent May 2004 inflation: 0.2 percent Year to date: 0 percent Last 12 months inflation: -0.2 percent 2002 Inflation: 22 percent 2003 Inflation: 7 percent EXCHANGE RATE DEVELOPMENTS ¶25. Exchange rates in Congolese francs per US dollar 03/12 03/19 03/26 04/02 CENTRAL BANK RATE 380.4057 381.9240 382.8745 383.7484 PARALLEL MARKET -KINSHASA 380-385 380-385 385-390 380-385 -LUBUMBASHI 380-390 380-390 380-390 380-390 -MBUJI MAYI 375-380 380-385 380-385 375-380 -KISANGANI 390-400 390-400 400-410 400-410 -GOMA 400-420 400-420 400-410 400-410 -BUKAVU 400-420 400-420 400-410 400-410 04/09 04/16 04/23 04/30 CENTRAL BANK RATE 382.7635 384.3099 385.1090 385.2552 PARALLEL MARKET -KINSHASA 380-385 380-385 380-385 385-390 -LUBUMBASHI 377-385 377-385 377-385 380-390 -MBUJI MAYI 375-380 375-380 375-380 380-385 -KISANGANI 400-410 390-400 390-400 390-400 -GOMA 400-410 400-410 400-410 395-405 -BUKAVU 400-410 400-410 400-410 395-405 05/07 05/14 05/21 05/28 CENTRAL BANK RATE 385.6318 386.8274 385.8868 385.8236 PARALLEL MARKET -KINSHASA 380-385 385-390 385-390 380-385 -LUBUMBASHI 380-390 380-390 380-390 380-385 -MBUJI MAYI 380-385 380-385 380-385 375-380 -KISANGANI 385-395 385-395 385-395 380-390 -GOMA 385-395 385-395 385-395 395-405 -BUKAVU 385-395 385-395 385-395 395-405 HOOKS