NEPAL: DAS PATTERSON MEETS WITH FINANCE MINISTER

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 KATHMANDU 000484 SIPDIS DEPT FOR SA/INS, LONDON FOR POL/GURNEY, NSC FOR MILLARD E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/17/2014 TAGS: PGOV EFIN PTER PREL NP SUBJECT: NEPAL: DAS PATTERSON MEETS WITH FINANCE MINISTER REF: A. KATHMANDU 437 ¶B. KATHMANDU 470 Classified By: Ambassador Michael E. Malinowski for reasons 1.5 (b,d). ¶1. (C) Summary. On March 17, DAS Torkel Patterson and Ambassador called upon Finance Minister Prakash Chandra Lohani. The three discussed the Government of Nepal's financial situation, U.S. military assistance, the Maoist insurgency and current political impasse between the King and political parties. Lohani reported that the country's finances are in good shape, but subject to deterioration of the security situation. He believed it would be difficult, due to Nepal's agreements with the IMF and World Bank, to justify further increases in military spending, even though helicopters would provide significant help in fighting the Maoists. Lohani criticized the political parties for failing to develop a sincere and positive working relationship with the King. He suggested that donor governments should be patient with the current political situation, believing that all sides will unite eventually. Lohani also stressed that withdrawal of bilateral aid programs would only help and encourage the Maoists. End Summary. -------------- Financial Situation -------------- ¶2. (SBU) On March 17, DAS Torkel Patterson and Ambassador met with Finance Minister Prakash Chandra Lohani. When asked how the insurgency has affected the government's financial situation, Lohani replied "not much thus far." Lohani explained that the GON's revenue has grown more than expected with actual growth of 13 percent (vice 10.5 percent expected). Similarly, he noted that the government had projected that expenditures would grow by 10 percent this year when in fact they have increased by only 6 percent. Lohani attributed the higher revenue and lower spending to his ministry's focus on revenue collection programs. He asserted that Nepal's real growth rate this calendar year (the Nepali calendar runs from July to July) should reach 4 percent, although he believes it could have reached 6.5 percent if not for the insurgency. The government's foreign exchange reserves have also risen to NRs 125 billion due to a stronger Indian Rupee vis-a-vis the US Dollar, Lohani said. He added that inflation currently rests at between 4 and 4.5 percent. Lohani concluded that Nepal's financial situation will remain stable as long as the insurgency does not worsen. -------------- Maoist Blockade -------------- ¶3. (C) Lohani explained that he had just returned from a short visit to Nepalgunj, Bhairahawa, Birgunj and Pokhara to investigate the impact of the ongoing Maoist blockade in many of Nepal's western and mid-western districts (Ref A). He stated that although Maoist military capability has declined, the insurgents' ability to terrorize the public has increased. Lohani regretted that Nepal's rural areas have suffered the most due to the consolidation of police posts to urban areas. The Maoists, he said, have filled the vaccuum created by the government's absence and are using terror to control the population. During his visit to the mid-west, Lohani met with business leaders, and particularly transport companies, to discuss ways of overcoming the blockade. He said that the government has agreed to provide commercial vehicles with security escorts between Birgunj, Bharatpur and Kathmandu. Suggesting that the GON had not met past commitments, Lohani said that he would fulfill a promise to reimburse transporters for damages lost during a strike or Maoist closure within seven days after submission of a claim. -------------- U.S. Military Assistance -------------- ¶4. (C) The Ambassador asked whether the government's current fiscal position would allow it to purchase helicopters in order to increase the military's mobility to fight the insurgents. Lohani replied that "it would be difficult." He recalled a recent meeting he had with General Rookmangud Khatwal, Commander of the ROYAL Nepal Army's (RNA) Western Division, who recommended acquisition of two Russian M-17 helicopters and one light attack helicopter for his command, which would allow the RNA "to control the Maoists in his area completely within six months." He noted that Khatwal's ideal scenario would be acquisition of six helicopters -- two in each of the three main combat regions. Lohani concurred that increased air mobility would be an asset to fight the insurgency, but said he could not give Khatwal concrete assurances. ¶5. (C) Lohani explained that the RNA's budget has increased dramatically over the past two years while the donor community, particularly the International Financial Insitutions (IFIs),have increasingly scrutinized these allocations. The GON relies significantly, he said, on support from the IFIs and intimated that this support might not be forthcoming for a large military purchase. Lohani also recollected his meeting with Asssistant Secretary of State Christina Rocca, in which he appealed for U.S. assistance in acquiring helicopters. The Ambassador explained that a U.S. team of helicopter experts would soon visit Nepal to evaluate whether equipment in the U.S. inventory might be appropriate for Nepal. Lohani noted that the issue of military expenditures might be raised by some donors during the Nepal Development Forum in May. He felt this would be inappropirate, especially since the percentage of GDP that Nepal spends on defense is much lower than those of other South Asian countries. -------------- Maoist Insurgency and Domestic Politics -------------- ¶6. (C) Lohani noted he had heard from DAS Patterson's meeting with the Prime Minister that Patterson believes a peaceful, negotiated settlement to the insurgency is essential and that the GON must use a "fist to fight extremists and a hand to help" (ref B). Lohani agreed, adding that if the Maoists feel that the "fist is weak, they will refuse to accept the hand." Patterson noted that this was yet another reason for the King to reconcile with the political parties. A unified front would strengthen the government's political power vis-a-vis the Maoists, he said. Patterson cautioned that without security in the country, elections would be meaningless. Lohani replied that the problem lies in the inconsistent approach taken by political party leaders. For example, he said, CPN-UML Chairman Madhav Nepal recently stated publicly that the time has come for his party to ally with the Maoists. Lohani complained that these types of statements encourage the Maoists and provoke the King. ¶7. (C) Lohani recognized that the Maoists are the common enemy, noting the ideological differences between Nepal's democratic forces and the Maoists, who support a single-party state. He asserted, however, that the government is willing to include the insurgents in the democratic process. The problem with the political parties, Lohani averred, is that they claim the current government is unconstitutional, which he believed was just a ruse to thrust themselves to power. Lohani believed the failure of the political parties to develop a sincere and trusting relationship with the King was also a problem. He recalled the Ambassador's earlier public remark that while "Nepal's house is on fire, the parties are arguing about who gets to sleep in the master bedroom" -- "a very appropriate comment," Lohani said. ¶8. (C) Believing that Nepal's future prognosis could be bright, Patterson asked how the USG could assist with the current political impasse. Lohani replied that Nepal's political forces will unite eventually and requested donor governments to be patient. Likewise, donors should support whatever government is in power; any withdrawal of bilateral assistance would be a victory for the Maoists, he said. Patterson replied that this has been and will continue to be the USG's approach in Nepal. ¶9. (U) Lohani mentioned in the meeting that he might travel to the U.S. in May for the Non-Resident Nepali (NRN) Conference to be held in Texas. He commented that it would give him an opportunity to visit his daughter, who is studying computer engineering in Plano, Texas. ¶10. (U) This cable was drafted after DAS Patterson's departure. MALINOWSKI