NEPAL: DEUBA DUBBED PRIME MINISTER; CONGRESS'

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 KATHMANDU 001024 SIPDIS STATE FOR SA/INS LONDON FOR POL - GURNEY NSC FOR MILLARD E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/01/2014 TAGS: PGOV NP SUBJECT: NEPAL: DEUBA DUBBED PRIME MINISTER; CONGRESS' KOIRALA OUT IN THE COLD REF: A. KATHMANDU 1012 ¶B. KATHMANDU 751 (NOTAL) ¶C. KATHMANDU 819 Classified By: CDA JANET BOGUE. REASON: 1.5 (B,D). -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) At about 11:00 a.m. local time on June 2, King Gyanendra appointed two-time Prime Minister and President of the Nepali Congress (Democratic) Sher Bahadur Deuba as Prime Minister. He is expected to be sworn in on June 3. According to Palace sources, Deuba's nomination has the critical support of Communist Party of Nepal - United Marxist Leninist (UML),the country's largest party, as well as that of two other Parliamentary parties, although whether the UML will join Deuba's government remains unclear. The UML's support to Deuba has shattered the five-party alliance, leaving Nepali Congress President and adamant prime ministerial aspirant Girija Prasad Koirala out in the cold. In the absence of an all-party consensus candidate for Prime Minister (Ref A),Deuba, the last democratically elected Prime Minister before the King dismissed him for "incompetence" in October 2002, seems a good compromise choice. Moreover, his middle-of-the-road politics, his party's comparatively restrained profile over the past several months of street protests, and his ostensibly easy-going manner make him well positioned to attract other parties--with the notable likely exception of long-time rival Koirala's Congress--into his new government. Friendly to the U.S. and supportive of the global war on terror, Deuba can be expected to press for sustained, if not increased, U.S. assistance to counter the Maoist insurgency. Biographic data on Deuba follows in Paras 7-8 below. Suggested press guidance follows in Para 9 below. End summary. -------------- KING TAPS DEUBA AS NEW PM -------------- ¶2. (U) At about 11:00 a.m. local time on June 2 the state-owned media announced that King Gyanendra had appointed Nepali Congress (Democratic) President and former Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba as Prime Minister. The King reportedly charged the new PM with forming a multi-party government and holding national elections by April 2005. Deuba is expected to be sworn in June 3. The appointment followed a flurry of meetings late June 1, most notably between Communist Party of Nepal - United Marxist Leninist General Secretary Madhav Nepal and Indian Ambassador Shyam Saran, followed by a subsequent meeting between Nepal and Deuba. The post of Prime Minister has remained vacant since the May 7 resignation of former PM Surya Bahadur Thapa. ¶3. (C) The formal announcement was preceded by a private telephone call from Shekhar Dhungana, Joint Secretary at the Royal Palace, to Charge informing her of the impending appointment. The early-morning call from the Palace was rapidly followed up by another to Charge from Prabhakar Rana, King Gyanendra's confidant and business partner, providing additional information. According to Rana, Deuba's nomination has the support of the pro-royalist National Democratic Party (also known by the Nepali acronym RPP) and the pro-royalist faction of the Nepal Sadbhavana Party. (Note: Like Deuba's Nepali Congress (Democratic),neither the RPP nor this faction of the Sadbhavana Party is part of the five-party alliance that has been protesting against the King's "royal regression." End note.) More important, however, the Communist Party of Nepal - United Marxist-Leninist (UML),the largest party in the country and a leader of the alliance, had agreed to support Deuba, Rana asserted. Initially, the UML will support the new government "from outside," Rana said, but could join the government later. In the meantime, the UML has reportedly agreed to withdraw from the ongoing five-party protests against the Palace. Rana attributed the UML's apparent ambivalence to the party's own "internal problems," as well as the constraints it faces in extricating itself gracefully from the five-party alliance. He added that he understands there is a written agreement between UML leader Madhav Nepal and Deuba on the distribution of portfolios in the new Cabinet but acknowledged that he has not actually seen such a document. Some Cabinet positions may also be assigned to non-party "technocrats," he advised. The full Cabinet will likely be named within the "next day or two." In response to Charge's query whether the new Cabinet would be formed in time for the June 4 visit of Indian Foreign Minister Natwar Singh, Rana replied, "I certainly hope so." ¶4. (C) The King's decision to choose Deuba has left Nepali Congress President and former Prime Minister Girija Prasad Koirala "frantic," Rana chuckled. According to Rana, Koirala, who has served as Prime Minister in five previous governments and had been blatantly angling for a sixth, has telephoned him repeatedly since the previous evening, pledging his support to "anyone but Deuba," his long-time rival, as PM. Among others, Koirala suggested he would reconsider former Speaker of Parliament Taranath Ranabath and UML General Secretary Madhav Nepal--both of whose bids Koirala had rejected resoundingly just a few days earlier (Ref A)--as well as Surya Bahadur Thapa, the royal appointee whose resignation had been a central goal, hypothetically at least, of the five-party protests. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶5. (C) Comment: Deuba's name has been floated as a possible contender ever since the King began contemplating a replacement for then-PM Thapa (Ref B). We had also heard that the UML had indicated possible support for Deuba (Ref C). In many ways, Deuba's moderate politics; his status as head of the third largest party in the most recent Parliament; his credentials as a leader in the pro-democracy movement of 1990; the low profile of his party during the vitriolic protests against the Palace by the five-party alliance; and his position as the last democratically elected Prime Minister before the King dismissed him and assumed executive power in October 2002 all suggest his suitability as a compromise candidate. By appointing Deuba, the King may attempt a face-saving claim to be reverting to the situation that existed before he ventured into constitutionally uncharted territory by dismissing Deuba's government and appointing his own. Moreover, Deuba's affable, non-confrontational demeanor makes him well positioned to attract support from other political leaders--with the notable exception of his long-time nemesis and former party colleague Koirala. Should Deuba succeed in gaining the support of the UML's Nepal, the RPP, and the pro-royalist faction of the Nepal Sadbhavana Party, he could lay claim to a majority of the seats held in the most recent Parliament. (Note: Of a total of 205 seats, the Nepali Congress (Democratic) accounts for 30; the UML 69; the RPP 11; and the Mandal faction of the Sadbhavana 4 for a total of 114. End note.) ¶6. (C) Comment (Continued): Koirala's characteristic implacability and self-absorption, reflected most recently in his refusal to give party colleague Taranath Ranabhat or alliance partner Madhav Nepal a chance at the PM's chair (Ref A)--have cost him dearly. His intransigence--to say nothing of his lack of political pragmatism--seem to have left him in the political wilderness, with only the ideologically awkward allies of the far-left People's Front Nepal (with a combined total of 6 MPs in the last Parliament) and the Peasants' and Workers' Party (1 MP),and the tattered remains of the rest of the Nepal Sadbhavana Party (1 MP). As the largest party, the UML's abandonment of the "decisive agitation" renders the ongoing campaign of protests significantly less "decisive." Most important, UML support for a Deuba government appointed by the King would inhibit the Maoists' (heretofore successful) strategy of manipulating the democratic parties and the Palace against each other. -------------- BIOGRAPHIC INFORMATION ON SHER BAHADUR DEUBA -------------- ¶7. (SBU) Sher Bahadur Deuba has served as Nepal's Prime Minister twice: from September 1995-March 1997 and again from July 2001-October 2002. Deuba's first stint as PM proved generally unproductive, due in part to his indecisive management style and the lack of support he received from his personal and political rival, Nepali Congress power broker G.P. Koirala. In an effort to keep the peace in his coalition government, he allocated nearly 50 Cabinet positions across the parties, at great expense to the national budget and at considerable detriment to his own effectiveness. Consequently, his ambitious plans, including the privatization of major state-owned enterprises, languished. During his second term as PM, Deuba presided over the first ceasefire and negotiations with Maoist insurgents (July-November 2001); the first-ever deployment of the Royal Nepal Army against the Maoists and the imposition of a state of national emergency, which temporarily suspended most civil rights, from November 2001-August 2002; and the visit of Secretary Powell to Kathmandu in January 2002. On May 22, 2002, Deuba, fearing a vote of no confidence (most likely spearheaded by Koirala),requested King Gyanendra to dissolve Parliament. Enraged at Deuba's move, Koirala expelled him from the Nepali Congress Party on May 26, 2002, whereupon Deuba formed the rival splinter Nepali Congress (Democratic). Atlhough deteriorating security conditions made elections unfeasible, in July 2002 Deuba, rather than extending the tenure of the UML-dominated local bodies, allowed their terms to lapse, thereby creating a vacuum in representative government at both the national and local elections. Deuba's subsequent inability to hold elections as scheduled prompted the King to dismiss him, citing his "incompetence" as a leader, on October 4, 2002. Several former ministers in Deuba's second Cabinet subsequently faced corruption charges brought by the Commission for the Investigation into the Abuse of Authority (CIAA),the constitutional body charged with controlling and prosecuting corruption. Following Deuba's dismissal, the King assumed executive authority and appointed two successive Prime Ministers and Cabinets. Other party leaders, particularly Koirala, blamed Deuba for facilitating the royal "regression" and the King's extra-constitutional activities, pointing to Deuba's insistence on dissolving Parliament as the initial "trigger" for the King's subsequently more active and direct involvement in governing. ¶8. (SBU) Born in the far-western district of Dadeldhura in 1946, Deuba began working in politics, initially in student organizations affiliated with the pro-democracy movement, in ¶1965. In 1971 he became president of the Nepal Students Union, the student wing of the then-banned Nepali Congress. In all, Deuba spent a total of nine years in prison for his pro-democracy activities. He earned his bachelor of law and masters of arts in political science from Tribhuvan University in Kathmandu. In 1988 the Socialist International sponsored his continued studies at the University of London, where he earned a diploma in international law and relations in 1990. In 1994 he married Dr. Arzu Rana, a women's activist who is the granddaughter of one of the last Prime Ministers of the autocratic Rana regime, which ended in 1951. The couple has one son who attends the British School in Kathmandu. Friendly to the U.S., Deuba was a vocal supporter of the global war on terror. His government may be expected to press for continued, if not increased, U.S. assistance to address the Maoist insurgency. He staunchly supports a western approach to the economy and favors U.S. investment in Nepal. Deuba briefly met with President Bush during a visit to Washington in May 2002. Despite his proficiency in English, an apparent speech impediment makes Deuba difficult to understand in any language. -------------- SUGGESTED PRESS GUIDANCE -------------- ¶9. (SBU) Suggested press guidance follows below: --We welcome the appointment of Sher Bahadur Deuba, an experienced democratic leader, as a significant step toward the restoration of representative democracy in Nepal. --This appointment marks an important opportunity for all pro-democratic and constitutional forces in Nepal to work together to address the many urgent challenges, including a terrorist insurgency, now confronting the nation. --We urge all supporters of multi-party democracy and constitutional monarchy to cooperate, in the national interest, in giving their fullest support to this endeavor. BOGUE