TURKISH-ARMENIAN RAPPROCHEMENT: NO LIGHT AT THE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ISTANBUL 000798

SIPDIS


E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/17/2014
TAGS: PREL PGOV ARMENIA'>AM TU
SUBJECT: TURKISH-ARMENIAN RAPPROCHEMENT: NO LIGHT AT THE
END OF THE TUNNEL


REF: A. ANKARA 317

B. ANKARA 2522


Classified By: Consul General David Arnett for Reasons 1.5 (b&d)



1. (c) Summary: Until now Istanbul-based initiatives have had
an important role to play in track-two moves to improve
Turco-ARMENIAn relations. However, the Turkish ARMENIAn
Reconciliation Commission (TARC),much-derided by the
ARMENIAn diaspora and largely ignored by Turks, has
discontinued its active work and appears to be reinventing
itself as a more passive bilateral forum. Separately, a
Vienna-based initiative to bring together Turkish and
ARMENIAn historians has attracted little attention in
Istanbul and will have trouble finding common ground between
its participants. Citing an unfavorable political climate
and bilateral tensions, the ARMENIAn Patriarch has asked the
ARMENIAn Catholicos to delay a planned visit to Turkey until

2006. End Summary.


The TARC is Dead, Long Live the TARC
--------------

2. (c) At an April Moscow meeting, the TARC decided to
declare victory and "discontinue" its work. Former Turkish
Foreign Minister Ilter Turkmen and former Bilgi University
Rector Ilter Turan, two of the Turkish participants, both
told Istanbul poloff that the TARC had largely succeeded in
its limited objectives, namely, to develop a rapport and an
atmosphere of mutual trust and confidence between key
unofficial Turks and ARMENIAns. In Moscow, they endorsed the
recommendations of coordinators David Philips and Joe
Montville to take the logical next step and use this core
group of individuals in a reconstituted Consultative Group to
support and promote worthwhile track-two initiatives. The
new group will meet less frequently (perhaps annually),but
will include a wider range of businessmen, academics, and NGO
figures.



3. (c) At the same time, the TARC members undertook to
approach their respective governments to offer advice on how
to advance reconciliation efforts. Both Turkmen and Turan
said that the recommendations would include an opening of the
Turkish-ARMENIAn border. Both noted, however, that ARMENIA
would also need to explicitly reject any territorial claims
on Turkey. (Comment: However, the Turkish MFA has told us
in Ankara, ARMENIAn recognition of the border is not
sufficient for Turkey to open the border or restore
diplomatic relations; concessions on the occupied territories
would have to be part of any package that would do the trick.
End Comment). Turan opined that this could be accomplished
by measures short of rewriting the ARMENIAn Declaration of
Independence and Constitution, perhaps even "a simple
parliamentary resolution" would do. Turkmen averred
separately that he thought a statement that explicitly refers
to the appropriate articles in the 1921 Moscow and Kars
Agreements would be sufficient. According to Turkmen, the
ARMENIAn members of TARC also agreed on the need for such a
statement. Turan added, however, that some kind of
"face-saving" measures might also need to be taken to give
Azerbaijan the cover it would need to accede to such a
development.


Viennese ARMENIAn-Turkish Platform
--------------

4. (u) A separate initiative, the Viennese ARMENIAn-Turkish
Platform (sometimes referred to as the Turkish-ARMENIAn
Historical Commission) is also making an effort to tackle the
"genocide" issue directly. Academics from both ARMENIA and
Turkey, presumably with permission from their governments,
have already exchanged historical information and documents
and are due to meet in Vienna on July 25. This initial
meeting is ostensibly to prepare for a more formal meeting to
take place next spring. Judging by recent anti-ARMENIAn
statements of Yusuf Halacoglu, President of the Turkish
History Institution and the senior Turkish participant, the
commission will be hard-pressed to find much middle ground
between the two sides. Halacoglu also co-authored a new book
that debunks ARMENIAn "genocide" claims, including a
"mathematical" refutation of the much-cited assertion that
1.5 million ARMENIAns perished in that period.


Visit of Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev
--------------

5. (c) ARMENIA-bashing was the dominant theme of Azeri
President Aliyev,s April 13-15 visit to Turkey. Azerbaijani
Ambassador Mehmed Nevruzoglu Aliyev, Azerbaijani Consul
General Ibrahim Nebioglu Yagubov and DCM Abdullahyev have all
told us that the primary agenda item for the visit was "to
put an end" to any plans to relax the current Turkish border
restrictions with ARMENIA. Ambassador Aliyev claims that
while there may have been some support for a border opening
at the "mid-levels of the Turkish bureaucracy" (Comment: A
misperception: see reftels and previous. End Comment.),
senior Turkish officials disavowed any plans for such
measures in their meetings with President Aliyev.


Visit of Catholicos Karekin II
--------------

6. (c) Catholicos Karekin II of Echmiadzin has been planning
a visit to Turkey (the last such visit was made several years
ago by his predecessor). Kaan Soyak, Co-Chairman of the
Turkish-ARMENIAn Business Development Council, told poloff
that he had been passing messages between Yerevan and Ankara
and thought that such a visit might take place as soon as
this year. However, ARMENIAn Patriarch Mesrob II, who has
been consulting with Ecumenical Patriarch Batholomew (who
would likely invite the Catholicos for an ecumenical visit)
told poloff that he had recommended that the visit be
postponed to 2006. Mesrob argued that he was unprepared for
a visit this year and that with 2005 being the 90th
anniversary of the "genocide," tensions would be too high for
such a visit before Spring 2006. Even then, Mesrob added, he
would not "allow" the Catholicos to visit any sensitive sites
in eastern Turkey for fear that this would simply exacerbate
tensions. (Comment: Inter-church politics and unresolved
tension between Mesrob and Karekin (which Mesrob attributes
to Karekin's "overly politicized" nature) may have influenced
Mesrob's desire to postpone the visit. Embassy Ankara and
ConGen Istanbul would be interested in Embassy Yerevan's
views on the subject of a possible visit by Karekin).
ARNETT