REPUBLICAN PEOPLES' PARTY: IS THE YELLOW ROSE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ISTANBUL 001729 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/17/2014 TAGS: PGOV TU SUBJECT: REPUBLICAN PEOPLES' PARTY: IS THE YELLOW ROSE WILTING? REF: A. 03 ISTANBUL 1409 ¶B. ANKARA 3158 ¶C. ANKARA 2327 ¶D. ANKARA 1905 Classified By: Acting Consul General Stuart Smith for Reasons 1.5 (b&d) This cable was coordinated with Embassy Ankara. ¶1. (sbu) Summary: Open warfare between main opposition CHP leader Deniz Baykal and Mustafa Sarigul ("Yellow Rose" in Turkish),the popular CHP mayor of Istanbul's Sisli district, will probably lead to Sarigul's eviction from the party. Few observers doubt that the corruption allegations against Sarigul; it is equally obvious that Baykal is using the issue to try to eliminate an upstart rival who has spent months "campaigning" in front of staged rallies in Anatolia far from his district. From Istanbul it appears that Sarigul, who has made little effort to conceal his ambition to replace Baykal, foolishly overplayed his cards. From Ankara, we see the possibility that Sarigul, backed by retired left-nationalist military officers and disgraced former political heavyweights, may once again switch parties and try to take over the moribund center-right DYP. However, despite his image as a "common-touch" politician and his enduring popularity, Sarigul lacks the party organization to marry his overweening prime ministerial ambitions with facts on the ground. In any event, the Baykal-Sarigul clash is further degrading CHP's already heavily-damaged reputation. End Summary. ¶2. (sbu) Beleaguered main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP) has briefly raised its profile again on the back of stories detailing party infighting and corruption. On November 16, CHP Secretary General announced the findings of an internal party investigation into corruption allegations against Istanbul Sisli district mayor Mustafa Sarigul. The report claims that Sarigul took USD 300,000 in bribes several years ago to allow the construction of several illegal buildings in Sisli and, as a result, recommends that he be expelled from the party. Sarigul responded immediately, calling the accusations baseless, charging the CHP leadership with seeking to stifle the "people's will," and promising to open a defamation suit. ¶3. (c) Based on what we know about Sarigul personally and municipal politics in general, there is little doubt that the CHP charges have merit; Sarigul is also the subject of a simultaneous ongoing official corruption investigation. Both the Consulate and the Embassy (refs) have heard reports of Sarigul's corruption and unsavory business connections. Granting dubious building permits or looking the other way on illegal construction, moreover, is precisely how many local district mayors cash in on their positions. On the other hand, if USD 300,000 were the extent of Sarigul's corruption (and given that he is known as "Mister 15 percent," such a low figure is unlikely),that would probably make him one of the cleaner mayors in Istanbul. ¶4. (c) As such, it is clear that CHP's investigation and report were politically motivated. Even CHP party insider, and another would-be Baykal challenger, Hursit Gunes admitted to poloff that Baykal is simply eliminating a political (albeit corrupt) rival. A wide range of CHP contacts have told us for years that Sarigul enjoys little support within the party structure, but his emergence in recent months as an apparently viable challenger to Baykal had earned him the support of several dissident MPs. According to Gunes, however, this latest development may cost him even that meager support (although about a dozen CHP MPs have defied the party leadership's threats of punishment and promised to attend a November 20 Sarigul rally in the southern port city of Mersin). ¶5. (c) If he is eventually expelled from the party, as contacts in Istanbul now expect, Sarigul may seek to capitalize on his local popularity and name recognition by forming his own party. Without an organized and effective party base, however, it is unlikely that Sarigul would be more than a flash in the pan. (Indeed, political observers in Ankara point to the fact that Sarigul buses in supporters for his Anatolian rallies, another sign that his popular support outside Istanbul is no more than media hype). On the other hand, we have heard in Ankara that, backed by now-disgraced former ANAP PM Yilmaz and former DSP Deputy PM Ozkan, Sarigul may try to work out a deal with current center-right DYP leader Agar and, switching parties for the third time, take over DYP. ¶6. (sbu) The more immediate question is how much this latest leadership struggle in CHP will further damage CHP's already poor image as a lackluster opposition party. For better or worse, Sarigul is one of the CHP's most telegenic politicians, at least in Istanbul. He won reelection on March 28 with almost 70 percent of the vote in Sisli and he has used his public relation skills and establishment allies to stay in the press. Expulsion from CHP may benefit Baykal personally, but further heightens the Baykal-imposed bunker mentality in CHP. Gunes acknowledged, for example, that targeting Sarigul, while other more corrupt senior CHP officials sit untouched, is a further blow to CHP's credibility. ********************************************* *************** Visit Con-Gen Istanbul's Classified Website: http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/istanbul You can also access this site through the State Department's Classified SIPRNET website. ********************************************* *************** SMITH