UN CONSIDERING ZIMBABWE'S REQUEST FOR ELECTION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 000084 SIPDIS FOR AF, DRL, AND IO, PASS TO USAID AND NSC E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/14/2014 TAGS: PREL PGOV ZI SUBJECT: UN CONSIDERING ZIMBABWE'S REQUEST FOR ELECTION ASSISTANCE REF: A. (A) HARARE 41 ¶B. (B) HARARE 47 Classified By: Joseph G. Sullivan for reasons 1.5B and D GOZ request for UN Election Assistance -------------- ¶1. (C) UN Resrep Victor Angelo told us over lunch Jan 14 that in response to a written, formal GOZ request for UN assistance in organizing the 2005 parliamentary elections, the UN Mission in Zimbabwe has engaged in a series of consultations with GOZ officials and the opposition MDC. Angelo said the UN made clear that it would only consider providing election assistance if the election process were organized in a free and fair manner and if environmental impediments to a free election such as the Public Order and Security Act and the misnamed Access to Information and Privacy Act were repealed. Angelo said that key GOZ officials such as Justice Minister Chinamasa and the MDC were united in calling for UN supervision of the election process. He said that only election registrar Mudede had argued that the GOZ should run elections in the usual way (biased and under his control) with only financial assistance from the UN. Angelo said noone had yet suggested that the UN should actually conduct the elections, but there was virtual consensus among the major parties for a major UN supervisory role in elections. The MDC had earlier favored elections in 2004, but now has come to accept a March 2005 election date as most practical. The UN would also be consulting with South Africa because of its role in brokering dialogue among the political parties. The UN was not certain whether elections should be held after or before implementation of constitutional reforms discussed in private talks between ZANU and MDC. The Ambassador pointed out that elections held under the existing constitution would continue to give the executive all the power to rule arbitrarily before and after elections. Angelo maintained a skeptical attitude toward the Mugabe regime's willingness to hold a free and fair election, but believed the UN should deepen its engagement with the GOZ, the MDC and civil society to help define the steps that must be taken in what timeframe in order to have an election in which the UN would assist and the international community would regard as free and fair. Angelo believed that most GOZ interlocutors, including Chinamasa, recognized that only a profoundly different type of election would pass international muster. He added that Chinamasa was convinced that ZANU-PF would win such an election easily. ¶2. (C) Angelo was requesting that the UNDPA Election Unit send out a small team in early February to engage more specifically with the GOZ, the MDC and civil society, lay down markers of what steps would be necessary and then return to NY without making a commitment to monitor or assist in elections pending further clear commitment by the GOZ to conduct free and fair elections and repeal repressive legislation to create an enabling environment for elections. Angelo said there was some reluctance in UNDPA to send the mission out of concern that the GOZ was not serious about holding free elections and might only be seeking to manipulate the UN. Angelo asked for US support with UNDPA for the election sounding mission to be undertaken with all appropriate caveats that the UN's eventual willingness to assist would depend on a firm conviction that the GOZ was willing to cooperate in holding a free election. Other Political Developments -------------- ¶3. (C) Angelo said he had been visited this week by the Namibian Ambassador who said that his President had recently decided to engage in pressing his longtime ally Mugabe to resolve the political crisis. Perhaps concerned by Zimbabwe's withdrawal from the Commonwealth, President Nujoma had asked his Ambassador to report personally to him this week on where the South Africans and the UN were so that Nujoma could weigh in appropriately with Mugabe in favor of a rapid resolution of Zimbabwe's political crisis. The Namibians would reportedly press for immediate commencement of formal ZANU-MDC dialogue in order to reach agreement in the critical six months ahead. (We know from our own contacts with the Namibians and the MDC that Namibia has in recent months been pressing the MDC to visit Namibia in order to brief GON officials.) ¶4. (C) Angelo said that recent UN meetings with Tanzanian authorities, including a SYG meeting with President Mkapa, had been far less encouraging with the Tanzanians merely repeating GOZ talking points about Western sanctions and opposition to land reform being responsible for all Zimbabwe's problems. ¶5. (C) Angelo also passed along a "credible" report that President Mugabe had in recent days sent President Mbeki a message at wide variance with what he told President Mbeki in December(ref a); i.e. that Mugabe upon reflection had decided it would be better for him to stay on as a non-executive president rather than to leave in 2005. Angelo had no information on how the South Africans would react to such a message. ¶6. (C) Angelo also said that following the Reserve Bank Governor Gideon Gono's inaugural address advocating GOZ reengagement with the international community, including the Bretton Woods Institutions, Information Minister Jonathan Moyo told Angelo that this policy of reengagement had been approved by the entire Cabinet. Angelo said he replied that reengagement depended on concrete GOZ actions. ¶7. (C) Comment and Recommendation: While we are as skeptical as anyone of Mugabe's intent to permit free and fair elections, we do believe it useful for the UN elections team to visit in the near term to help lay out the steps necessary to create appropriate election conditions. We note that, as reported ref B, the MDC favors early UN engagement on defining the conditions and steps necessary for free and fair elections . Such a UN visit would help build pressure for creating a level playing field and improving the environment for elections sooner rather than later. We urge that USUN be instructed to convey our support for an exploratory UN election mission to UNDPA. SULLIVAN