MDC PLANNING TO SUPPORT NON-MDC MASS ACTION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 000054 SIPDIS NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR J. FRAZER, D. TEITELBAUM LONDON FOR C. GURNEY PARIS FOR C. NEARY NAIROBI FOR T. PFLAUMER DS/OP/AF E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/31/2013 TAGS: PGOV PHUM PINR ASEC ZI MDC SUBJECT: MDC PLANNING TO SUPPORT NON-MDC MASS ACTION REF: A. HARARE 47 ¶B. 2003 HARARE 2455 ¶C. 2003 HARARE 2443 ¶D. 2003 HARARE 2412 ¶E. 2003 HARARE 2313 Classified By: Political Officer Audu Besmer for reasons 1.5 b/d ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: An MDC official described plans for a prayer vigil on January 11 as the first in what the MDC hopes will be a series of similar (mass) actions in the coming weeks or months. The events would be held under the auspices of the church rather than the MDC. The official recounted MDC efforts to build its structures in rural areas, and also revealed that some in the MDC leadership would be content if the ruling party candidate won the upcoming parliamentary by-election in Gutu-North. END SUMMARY. Prayer Vigils in Lieu of Mass Action -------------- ¶2. (C) In a conversation with poloff on January 8, Dennis Murira, MDC mass action coordinator, and personal assistant to MDC Party Chairman Isaac Matongo, said that plans were underway to hold a prayer vigil on January 11 in Kambuzuma, a high-density suburb of Harare. Murira and Gandi Mudzingwa, MDC Special Assistant for Presidential Affairs, have in recent months both described MDC plans to begin holding prayer vigils early in the new year with the hope that the GOZ would be reluctant to crack down on church-goers (Ref D). The events would appear to be church-sponsored, but MDC structures would be used to generate attendance that Murira suggested could be 2-500 people for the January 11 event. Murira said MDC leaders hoped to demonstrate that the MDC was still a relevant political force and to generate confidence among the party faithful ahead of the 2005 parliamentary elections. Murira said stickers already had been printed which said "faith demands action". Building Rural Support in Key Constituencies -------------- ¶3. (C) Echoing other MDC officials, Murira reiterated that the party was focused on building its support base in rural areas. The party would concentrate door-to-door membership campaigns in 30 pilot constituencies that they had only lost narrowly in the 2000 and 2002 elections. Murira said the party had sold thousands of membership cards (signing up thousands of new members) in the selected areas. He said the upcoming challenge would be to get old and new members to register to vote as soon as the GOZ opened the voter's rolls for the 2005 elections. MDC Support for ZANU-PF Candidate ? -------------- ¶4. (C) Murira, who is from the Masvingo area, admitted that much of the MDC leadership would quietly be happy if ZANU-PF candidate for the February 2-3 parliamentary by-election in Gutu North (near Masvingo) Josiah Tungamirai won. He said that this message was of course not being communicated publicly, but that the MDC had communicated in the past with retired Air Chief Marshal Tungamirai in an effort to bolster its ties and confidence with the military. Murira said MDC leaders were comfortable with Tungamirai. (Note: MDC public support for Tungamirai would likely have led to serious problems for the candidate from within ZANU-PF. End Note.) Murira said that the MDC was short on cash and, acknowledging that they were likely to lose anyway, might only send Z$3 million (US$460) to its candidate Crispa Musoni for the campaign in Gutu North, a traditionally ZANU-PF bastion. Comment: -------------- ¶5. (C) Murira's description of MDC plans for mass action, or more clearly plans not to undertake mass action in its own name but rather coordinate discreetly with other civic or religious organizations, is consistent with the direction laid out during last month's party conference (Ref B),and recent conversations with MDC President Morgan Tsvangirai and other MDC officials (Refs A, D). From the MDC's perspective, the vigils area designed more to build confidence within the party faithful rather than to send a message to the GOZ or to motivate political change from the regime. They will be an important test of the MDC's organizational capabilities, which the party has quietly been developing since last June's failed mass action. The party probably will suffer little downside should the vigils fail to gather momentum. If they succeed, the vigils may pose a dilemma for the GOZ, which is keen not to let the opposition gain credibility but wants to project an air of growing political calm. Should the GOZ arrest organizers or take some other overt action against the vigils or organizers, the challenge will fall back to the MDC on how to exploit the situation. SULLIVAN