ZIMBABWE,S SUGAR QUOTA

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 002082

SIPDIS

STATE FOR AF/S
USDOC FOR ROBERT TELCHIN
TREASURY FOR OREN WYCHE-SHAW
PASS USTR FLORIZELLE LISER
STATE PASS USAID FOR MARJORIE COPSON

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/13/2014
TAGS: PGOV EFIN ECON ETRD EINV ZI
SUBJECT: ZIMBABWE,S SUGAR QUOTA

Classified By: Classified by Charge d'Affaires Eric
Schultz under Section 1.5 b/d

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Summary
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1. (C) Zimbabwe has a small U.S. sugar quota that has been
fully filled in recent years. In 2003-04, the first year
that the GOZ,s land reform policies affected the sugar
sector, we estimate that 25 percent of the quota may have
come from resettled farms. However, this year overall
production has fallen dramatically, but especially on the
resettled farms, and Zimbabwean Sugar Sales Association (ZSS)
has developed a better system for separating the sugar by
source. The result is that sugar from resettled farms will
comprise only 3 percent of the quota this year. Moreover, in
order to preserve the quota, the ZSS has offered to ensure
that no sugar from resettled farms is included in the quota
in future years.

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Zimbabwean Sugar Production
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2. (SBU) Sugar cane is grown in Zimbabwe,s Chiredzi
district in the southeastern &Lowveld.8 In recent years,
the sugar sector produced 600,000-700,000 MT of sugar, of
which Zimbabwe Sugar Sales (ZSS) - the industry association
) exported about 250,000 MT. Prior to the beginning of
fast-track land reform in 2001, ZSS counted two large mills
and 56 large-scale growers as members. Although invasions of
white-owned farms began in 2001, sugar plantations remained
largely untouched until 2003. Since then, there have been
approximately 500 land reform beneficiaries (A2s) in the
sugar sector. However, many white farmers still control a
portion of their farms and many A2s have not yet taken up
their allotted plots.


3. (SBU) Currently the primary producers are three groups:
a) two South African multinational mills that also grow sugar
themselves ) Hippo Valley and Triangle Estates; b) the
remaining white farmers; and c) the black A2 farmers. In
terms of production, land reform has taken a heavy toll. ZSS
tells us that most A2s are absentee farmers who are
inexperienced in cane production. Through our conversations
with ZSS and a number of farmers, we estimate that production
this year will be 300,000-350,000 MT, about half the pre-land
reform yearly output. Of that total, the two multinational
mills will grow about forty percent, while white and
resettled black farmers will contribute approximately 35 and
25 percent, respectively.

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Zimbabwe,s Sugar Quota and Recent Trends
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4. (C) As part of the U.S. commitment at the WTO Doha
Development Round, the U.S. agreed to minimum sugar import
quotas, including Zimbabwe,s relatively small 13,000 MT
allotment. Given domestic price constraints, ZSS tries to
export as much sugar as it can and has routinely filled its
annual quota for both the U.S. and the EU. In 2003-04, we
estimate that sugar produced by A2 farmers comprised as much
as 25 percent of the U.S. quota. This was primarily because
the A2 farmers took over many white-owned farms after the
crop was already in the ground. They therefore produced a
higher percentage of the overall sugar crop that year than
will be the case this year, when the A2s lack of resources
and experience have taken a toll. ZSS estimates that
Triangle, which will be the sole source of sugar for the U.S.
quota this year, will receive less than three percent of its
sugar from A2 farms. ZSS General Manager Steve Frampton
recently told us that in order to guarantee continuation of
the quota, his association,s board of directors would be
willing to ensure in future years that none of the sugar it
exports to the U.S. comes from resettled farms.

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Comment
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5. (C) We recommend pursuing ZSS,s offer to export only
sugar from deeded farms to the U.S. in future years. This
approach would enable us to preserve and tighten our policy
of targeted sanctions and underscore the principle that land
reform should only take place in a lawful and transparent
manner. Alternatively, eliminating the quota would, in
addition to WTO ramifications, be counter-productive. It
would actually disadvantage the multi-nationals and the
remaining white farmers, as well as those black farmers who
acquired their land lawfully, who are already filling 97
percent of the quota and could supply 100 percent if we
pursue the ZSS offer.
SCHULTZ