TSVANGIRAI VERDICT DATE SET - OCTOBER 15

C O N F I D E N T I A L HARARE 001571 SIPDIS NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR C. COURVILLE LONDON FOR C. GURNEY PARIS FOR C. NEARY NAIROBI FOR T. PFLAUMER E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/21/2014 TAGS: PGOV PHUM ZI MDC SUBJECT: TSVANGIRAI VERDICT DATE SET - OCTOBER 15 REF: A. HARARE 1224 ¶B. HARARE 334 ¶C. HARARE 268 Classified By: Ambassador Christopher W. Dell under Section 1.5 b/d. ¶1. (C) Opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai's lawyers informed the Embassy on September 17 that the High Court had told them it would render a verdict in the Tsvangirai treason trial on October 15. The case concluded in February 2004, more than a year after it started. ¶2. (C) Originally, the court was to render its verdict in August. However, the verdict was postponed, supposedlybecause the two assessors on the panel had requested full transcripts of the trial for further review. Tsvangirai's lawyers speculated at the time that the real SIPDIS reason for the postponement was that Judge Garwe had already decided on a guilty verdict, but that the two assessors did not agree. ¶3. (C) Tsvangirai's lawyers said that the continuing delay was the result of pressure from South African Development Council (SADC) pressure. According to their "sources" within the government, the GOZ had told SADC partners at the August 16-18 Summit in Mauritius that Tsvangirai would be found guilty, but this received widespread negative reaction, especially from South Africa. ¶3. (C) Comment: Conventional wisdom has long held that the government would find Tsvangari guilty, sentence him to death, and then pardon him. This would disqualify Tsvangari from running for president but avoid making him a martyr. However, there are increasing signals that the government, increasingly confident of its electoral position, may opt to avoid any negative publicity and find Tsvangari not guilty. Tsvangari himself told the Ambassador September 17 (septel) SIPDIS that he expected to be found guilty in August but would now not be surprised at a not-guilty verdict. End Comment Dell