REGIONAL ELECTION CONFERENCE CHALLENGES GOZ

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 HARARE 001335 SIPDIS NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR C. COURVELLE, D. TEITELBAUM LONDON FOR C. GURNEY PARIS FOR C. NEARY NAIROBI FOR T. PFLAUMER E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/04/2009 TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL ZI SUBJECT: REGIONAL ELECTION CONFERENCE CHALLENGES GOZ REF: (A) HARARE 1313 (B) HARARE 1250 (C) HARARE 1157 (D) HARARE 1067 Classified By: Political Officer Win Dayton under Section 1.5 b/d ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: At an NGO-sponsored conference on regional electoral reforms, senior ruling party officials sounded familiar election-related themes to a critical audience of domestic and regional parliamentarians, regional election commissioners and administrators, and NGO representatives. They reiterated GOZ plans for electoral reforms and urged the opposition, NGOs and media to play "appropriate" roles. Comments on the conference's margins offer further evidence of rifts in the ruling party over proposed electoral reforms, but hard-liners resistant to meaningful reforms so far appear to enjoy Mugabe's backing. Pressure from SADC member states appears to have been a key stimulus to the GOZ electoral reform initiative thus far and could be decisive in influencing how far reform efforts go. END SUMMARY. Plane Chat with the Speaker -------------- ¶2. (C) On the flight to Victoria Falls August 1, poloff was seated fortuitously next to the conference's keynote speaker, Speaker of the Parliament and ZANU-PF Secretary of Administration (and presidential aspirant) Emmerson Mnangagwa. Upon inquiry about progress on the party's proposed electoral reforms, the Speaker went into exhausting detail on well-reported technical aspects of the reforms (use of indelible marking ink, translucent boxes, one-day voting, etc.). He explained the contextual difference between the SADC-PF norms and standards and the principles expected to be adopted by SADC heads of state in Mauritius later this month. The states were consulting on technical distinctions in their various election laws; the principles to be adopted would be guidelines that reflected common denominators but would not necessarily require states to change their laws. Sovereignty would not be impinged upon and state constitutions and laws would prevail over any competing interpretations under the SADC principles. ¶3. (C) Mnangagwa acknowledged that a constitutional amendment to establish an independent electoral commission was desireable and would require discussions with the MDC. Discussions already underway were "amicable," although the issues were numerous and many were technically difficult. For example, the parties were vexed by election representation formulas: ZANU-PF favored having 100 seats awarded to parties on the basis of proportional representation and 100 based on constituency elections so that geographic constituencies would have advocates in the legislature; the MDC favored proportional representation for all seats. Mnangagwa asserted that the MDC had a history of agreeing on issues until "the 11th hour," when they would hold things up with additional demands. If they did that this time, he maintained, the ruling party would content itself with using its parliamentary majority to undertake as many reforms as possible through legislation rather than a constitutional amendment. ¶4. (C) Mnangagwa raised the Senate confirmation hearing remarks of Ambassador-designate Dell. He asserted that Dell's remarks would make it difficult for many to deal with him. On reading the text of the remarks provided by poloff, Mnangagwa said only that "he does not appear to have been misquoted." He did not suggest that the Ambassador-designate's credentials might not be accepted. (Note: In discussions with poloff at the conference, ZANU-PF parliamentary back-benchers appeared to assume the Ambassador-designate's credentials would be accepted. End note.) ZANU-PF at the Podium -------------- ¶5. (U) In opening the conference August 2, Mnanagwa emphasized the importance of free, fair, transparent, and peaceful elections for stability and legitimacy. He complimented the region on being at the forefront of the continent in its pursuit of democratization, which was an ongoing process. In a familiar refrain, he stressed that African and Western values differed, and noted that SADC, cooperative experiences and efforts were "subservient" to each nation's distinct history and culture. He maintained that SADC recognized the sovereignty and supremacy of national law and constitutions; SADC structures to support free and fair elections would be welcome but "must pay obeisance" to local history, culture and law. ¶6. (U) The Speaker urged NGOs and civil society to avoid partisan politics. Adding that the media should go beyond partisan messages, he appealed to the media to desist from inflammatory stories and to promote voter registration and voting. Regarding election observers, Mnangagwa suggested that observers of elections in SADC countries should be welcomed from SADC, the AU, and developing countries without preconditions. He urged resistance to observing, monitoring, and funding by Western countries, which tended to be biased and make unreasonable demands. He decried the "arrogant and patronizing manner" of Americans and British and "machinations" by outsiders to have Zimbabwe excluded from SADC activities. ¶7. (U) Mnangagwa then rehearsed a familiar sketch of the GOZ's proposed electoral reforms, which he cast as "far-reaching" and designed to move away from government administration of elections. Echoing the President's remarks at the opening of Parliament, he emphasized that the changes followed consultations with SADC. He asserted that the SADC-PF norms and standards, which had not been adopted by the SADC governments, would be integrated with the principles expected to be adopted in Mauritius. (Comment: Mnangagwa's rather respectful references to the SADC-PF norms and standards reflect his status as Speaker and Zimbabwe's signatory to the instrument and are at odds with the Jonathan Moyo-dominated state media's vilification of SADC-PF as a body of western puppets. End comment.) ¶8. (U) Princeton-educated ZANU-PF Secretary for Information Nathan Shamuyarira at the August 3 session further elaborated on elements of GOZ/ZANU-PF electoral reform proposals. A notable addition was that current plans would leave the Registrar-General's office with responsibility for registering voters but would transfer voter roll maintenance duties to the independent election commission. (Comment: Eliminating a meaningful role for the overtly partisan Registrar-General is a central objective of the opposition and civil society critics. The change cited by Shamuyarira appears not to satisfy the objective. End comment.) Shamuyarira recounted Zimbabwe's experience in five previous national parliamentary elections in positive terms, giving due credit to the MDC's genuine strength in the most recent one. He acknowledged the important role of an opposition in a democracy and urged Zimbabwe's opposition to behave constructively. Shamuyarira expressed disappointment that there was "so much outside interference" in Zimbabwe and blasted George Bush and Tony Blair for "blatantly supporting the opposition" and pushing regime change. He twice stressed the government's and his personal interest in receiving public comments and suggestions about GOZ electoral reform. In response to a question from the audience, he asserted that, as a former journalist, he "personally" did not support media restrictions -- as long as media remained balanced. ¶9. (C) In a brief exchange with poloff at the airport later, Shamuyarira was cordial and said he "learned a lot" at the conference. He cryptically singled out Justice Kriegler as a particularly insightful panelist. (Comment: Kriegler was notable in two respects -- he stressed the primacy of attitude and willingness to give a real voice to the people over the letter of law in producing a legitimizing election, and he brought the house down with a barely oblique equating of Africa's few remaining despots to the emperor who wore no clothes. End comment.) Panelists, Participants Critical -------------- ¶10. (SBU) Mnangagwa and Shamuyarira were playing before a skeptical crowd. Their more provocative comments about NGOs, the media, and the opposition elicited audible chortles, jeering, and derisive comments from the audience. NGO representatives, including those based outside Zimbabwe, attacked reported GOZ plans to implement a restrictive NGO bill. MDC MPs repeatedly underscored to the ZANU-PF speakers and other panelists the importance of addressing election environment issues, such as media access, freedom of assembly, and political violence. Other panelists, including Namibian Election Commissioner Shafimana F.I. Ueitele and former South African Constitutional Court Justice and Electoral Commission Chairperson Johann Kriegler, took thinly veiled swipes at Zimbabwe's election climate and GOZ posturing. MPs and election officials from the region generally avoided commenting directly on Zimbabwe. Mnangagwa sat dispassionately through the barrage of critical comments that followed his address through the remainder of the morning of the first day, while Shamuyarira busily took notes throughout the entire two days. Opposition's Scathing Critique -------------- ¶11. (U) Following Shamuyarira at the podium on the second day, MDC Secretary-General Welshman Ncube delivered a blistering and comprehensive attack on the GOZ's past election practices and questioned the ruling party's sincerity in its electoral reform proposals. Decrying Zimbabwe's long "culture of unilateralism", Ncube recounted a familiar litany of election abuses, centering principally on ruling party deployment of the full weight of state machinery, the inadequacy of law enforcement efforts and legal processes, a pervasive climate of intimidation, and abuses under restrictive laws such as POSA and AIPPA. He also stressed the importance of international observers and an impartial constituency delimitation exercise. Ncube emphasized the MDC's desire for genuine dialogue but asserted that the ZANU-PF Central Committee had "tied the Justice Minister's hands" from engaging in meangingful negotiation. ZANU-PF Rift on Election Strategy -------------- ¶12. (C) On the flight back to Harare August 3, Ncube told poloff that his principal ZANU-PF interlocutor Justice Minister Patrick Chinamasa had confided that he was losing confidence in the ZANU-PF intra-party debate. Chinamasa confirmed to Ncube that Mugabe was opposed to any compromise on election reforms but implied that factions were energetically debating the issue. Factions were shifting curiously; Chinamasa reported that figures he thought were with him on reforms (e.g. Minister for Security Goche and elder statesman Solomon Mujuru) appeared opposed during the last politburo meeting while others traditionally opposed (e.g. Local Government Minister Chombo) were supportive. He identified Mnangagwa, Shamuyarira, and business/young turks like Savior Kasukuwere as being generally supportive of reforms. In any event, Chinamasa personally was feeling more exposed and anxious that he would be the fall guy if the situation went awry. ¶13. (C) Namibian Ambassador Kamati reported to the Ambassador August 4 that the ruling party remained very much undecided about whether to reform elections and, if so, how deeply. He said that the hard-liners wanted only those reforms agreed by the ZANU-PF politburo and were prepared to pass the minimum without MDC cooperation. In that case, the ZANU-PF Congress scheduled for December would be a non-event. He said that others, including Mnangagwa, wanted far-reaching reforms, including constitutional changes, that would create a position of Prime Minister, involve simultaneous election of the President and Parliament, and delay elections three months or more in order to enact such changes. (Note: Like the independent election commission, a delay of more than three months in the conduct of the parliamentary election would require a constitutional amendment.) Kamati said also that hard-line Information Minister Jonathan Moyo and several others were close to being punished severely for their land abuses. Tidbits on the Margin -------------- ¶14. (C) NGO representatives told poloff on the conference margins that Mnangagwa had told them that the President's office had added the more provocative references to NGOs and the West to his speech. They also reported that Jonathan Moyo had tried hard but unsuccessfully to forestall any official GOZ/ZANU-PF representation at the event. One indicated further that the SADC election principles instrument under consideration for adoption in Mauritius now included an annex that offered specific prescriptions for effecting free and fair elections beyond the general principles laid out in the earlier draft (ref A). We are seeking a copy. Comment: -------------- ¶15. (C) The likely impact of intense audience reaction, including from regional interlocutors, on the two ZANU-PF principals is difficult to assess. Official media coverage of the conference was uncharacteristically straightforward, albeit omitting key details and downplaying criticism. The ferocity of reaction may play into the hands of party hard-liners, but we suspect that the posture of SADC member states will remain a key variable in the ruling party's calculations. ¶16. (C) Although the NGOs and opposition parliamentarians present were heartened by supportive comments from regional participants, it is significant that participants from SADC countries included only NGOs, MPs, and election officials, and not senior members of the executive branch who could speak for their governments. In meetings on the conference's margins, MPs and election officials from South Africa, Namibia, and Lesotho promised to express their concerns strongly about Zimbabwe's electoral environment to senior officials in their government. We will have to see if their views carry any significant weight. ¶17. (C) In that vein and as follow-up to prior instructions from the Department, we urge engagement in Washington and SADC capitals to stimulate regional pressure on the GOZ with respect to electoral reforms and NGO regulation. We would note that the USG's repeatedly expressed posture on Zimbabwean elections is entirely consistent with regional instruments (i.e. African Union Guidelines Governing Democratic Elections in Africa; SADC-PF Norms and Standards for Elections in the SADC Region; and the Electoral Commissions Forum/Electoral Institute of Southern Africa Principles for Election Management, Monitoring and Observation in the SADC Region (PEMMO)). Specifically, we have called for the GOZ (1) to establish an independent election commission that has meaningful authority; (2) not to restrict freedom of assembly/association unreasonably; (3) to lift unreasonable media restrictions; (4) to suppress political violence; and (5) to permit political campaigning by all parties without unreasonable obstruction. SULLIVAN