LESS VIOLENCE - BUT ZANU-PF STILL AHEAD IN RUN-UP

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 000122 SIPDIS NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR J. FRAZER, D. TEITELBAUM LONDON FOR C. GURNEY PARIS FOR C. NEARY NAIROBI FOR T. PFLAUMER DS/OP/AF E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/31/2014 TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM PINR ASEC ZI SUBJECT: LESS VIOLENCE - BUT ZANU-PF STILL AHEAD IN RUN-UP TO IMPORTANT BY-ELECTION REF: A. HARARE 54 ¶B. 2003 HARARE 2359 ¶C. 2003 HARARE 1931 Classified By: Political Officer Audu Besmer for reasons 1.5 b/d ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: The MDC candidate in an upcoming by-election reported that the pre-election environment was less threatening than press reports describe. A Minister reiterated ZANU-PF's age-old theme that the West was responsible for Zimbabwe's problems at a rally for the ruling party candidate. If the ZANU-PF candidate won, questions remain as to whether he has the charisma to unify the party in the province. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (C) On January 20, with colleagues from the British, Swedish and Spanish Embassies, poloff visited Gutu-North, attended a ZANU-PF rally, and met with candidates for a February 7 - 8 by-election there. The parliamentary seat in Gutu-North was left vacant with the September 2003 death of Vice-President Simon Muzenda (Ref C). Intimidation Less than Newspapers Report -------------- ¶3. (C) Although The Standard, an independent weekly, reported that "marauding" ZANU-PF youths and war veterans had "laid siege" to Gutu-North, effectively making it impossible for the MDC to campaign, in a conversation with poloff the MDC candidate Casper Musoni denied that ZANU-PF had brought any noticeable number of extra people, war veterans, youth militia members, or illicit voters into the constituency. Musoni said that ruling party supporters had beaten three of his campaign staff, who subsequently needed medical attention, and he confirmed a Zimbabwe Independent report that one other businessman was beaten during the past week, allegedly for opposition political affiliation. Musoni also confirmed press reports that on January 16 ruling party supporters in three vehicles had attempted to detain him in his vehicle. Musoni evaded the vehicles that he said tried to block him from driving forward, returned to his restaurant, and called police who escorted him home. Musoni said that notorious war veteran Joseph Chinotimba had recently visited Musoni's restaurant and torn down campaign posters inside and threatened staff. Other than these incidents, he said he knew of no other reports of violence or intimidation. Musoni said that in general he did not feel threatened, and he did not think the pre-election environment was particularly threatening. MDC Candidate Not Optimistic -------------- ¶4. (C) Musoni reported that he had been engaged in daily door-to-door campaigning and had not attempted to hold any large meetings yet. The Standard reported that Musoni had not been able to hold a single rally in the constituency, but Musoni said that he only submitted a list of prospective rallies to police on January 19 and that they had not responded yet. Musoni said his first rally would be on January 22 or 23. Musoni said he had already received about Z$4.5 million (US$1,125) from the MDC national office, and he expected to receive another allotment of the same amount for campaign expenses. He said he had 1350 volunteers working on his campaign, and he was using the money to pay for bus fare and food for the volunteers to visit far-flung areas and encourage voters. Musoni said he hoped some in the MDC leadership would visit soon to give speeches and help his campaign. He complained that ZANU-PF had all of the government structures in the area - manpower, vehicles, and fuel - mobilized for the ruling party campaign, giving Tungamirai an unfair advantage. Horse Confirmed Dead at ZANU-PF Rally -------------- ¶5. (C) At the invitation of ZANU-PF candidate Retired Air Chief Marshal Josiah Tungamirai, poloff attended a ZANU-PF rally in Nerupiri (just outside Gutu-North). Minister of Youth, Gender and Employment Creation Elliott Manyika delivered the main campaign message that sanctions from the West were responsible for the economic difficulties the country was experiencing, and that only ZANU-PF could defend the country against imperialist forces bent on controlling the land. At one point Manyika pointed to poloff and the other diplomats in attendance and said in Shona, they are so interested in the land that they have followed us all the way here from Harare. Tungamirai passed out sample ballots and led an extensive clinic on how to mark a ballot for a ZANU-PF candidate that included a description of good X's (big bold ones) in the appropriate box, and bad X's (small, non-descript ones). The average age of the approximately 200 rural attendees appeared to be 65, and most sat on the ground under trees in the area designated for the rally. There were three uniformed police officers present, two of whom sat through the entire 3-hour event, while the third stood out on the road leading into the area. When the Going Gets Rough - Change the Subject -------------- - ¶6. (C) After the rally, poloff and the other diplomats met for an engaging round-table discussion with Tungamirai and Manyika back at a hotel in Gutu-North. Tungamirai came off as rather quiet, perhaps a little tired, and not as talkative as the jovial Manyika. During a discussion about whether food had ever been distributed at a political rally, Tungamirai denied that it ever had, and said that that would imply that without food there would be no reason to have campaign rallies. When asked to describe his campaign message, Tungamirai deferred to the Minister, who elaborated on the sanctions and land issues at length. Whenever the discussion ranged into territory that Manyika was uncomfortable with such as freedom of speech, GOZ food politicization, or GOZ economic policy, he would change the subject to Iraq, crime in America, or alleged politicization of donor food aid. ¶7. (C) Tungamirai had scheduled about 25 rallies in the final three weeks of the campaign. For most he expected ZANU-PF Ministers or deputy Ministers to visit and deliver keynote addresses. ¶8. (C) Tungamirai contested the ZANU-PF nomination for the seat in 2000 but lost to the late Vice President Simon Muzenda, and Musoni ran (unsuccessfully) against Muzenda in that year. Tungamirai recently resigned his non-constituency MP seat to run for the Gutu-North slot. In 2000 Musoni polled 8,179 votes to Muzenda's 14,867. In the 2002 Presidential race MDC candidate Morgan Tsvangirai polled 8,934 to President Mugabe's 22,524 votes. ¶9. (C) COMMENT: That the remaining independent newspapers in Zimbabwe exaggerated the level of pre-election violence in Gutu-North demonstrates the difficulty in getting a clear picture of this highly polarized political environment. ¶10. (C) Given the previous parliamentary and presidential election results from Gutu-North, we would expect ZANU-PF to retain the seat. Albeit, there are factors which favor the MDC: an environment of lower political tension than previous by-elections, the MDC national office contribution of more funds to the campaign than previously reported (Ref A),and the economy's continued slide. But factors favorable to ZANU-PF - the MDC waited until two weeks before the vote to hold its first rally, it is a rural constituency (traditionally ZANU-PF strongholds),the ruling party has an aggressive rally schedule and is demonstrating considerably more organizational energy and capacity - suggest an MDC win is unlikely. ¶11. (C) Quiet and politically inexperienced, Tungamirai did not impress poloff with any outward charisma, and he did not relate to the electorate assembled for the rally in as personable a manner as Manyika. But the task of uniting the divided Karanga factions in the Masvingo province (Ref B) might call for more back-room negotiating skills - something we will likely never observe directly - rather than political glad-handing. SULLIVAN