MDC QUIETLY CULTIVATING DOMESTIC ALLIES

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 001009 SIPDIS AF/S FOR LAROIAN, MRAYNOR NSC FOR AFRICA DIRECTOR D. TEITELBAUM LONDON FOR C. GURNEY PARIS FOR C. NEARY NAIROBI FOR T. PFLAUMER E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/16/2009 TAGS: PGOV PHUM ZI MDC SUBJECT: MDC QUIETLY CULTIVATING DOMESTIC ALLIES REF: : A. HARARE 987 B. HARARE 958 C. HARARE 752 D. HARARE 487 Classified By: Political Officer Bianca Menendez under Section 1.5 d ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Discussions with MDC officials reveal continued hope within the party for the success of mass action and a broad alliance of civic groups. Discouraged by unsuccessful efforts in court and in recent elections, the party leadership plans to press the ruling party through mass action (still without a time table) and a petition for electoral reform. Party officials confirmed the MDC's recent absorption of a lesser party, said another was planned, and optimistically predicted the defection of some ruling party MPs and mid-level officials. END SUMMARY. Mass Action and Popular Petition -------------- ¶2. (C) Ghandi Mudzingwa, MDC Director of Presidential Affairs, on June 8 told poloffs that, as a result of party restructuring (ref C) the MDC was now organizationally and strategically focused on the 2005 elections -- though a final decision had not been made to participate or boycott those elections. Under the overarching "elections directorate" Mudzingwa confirmed that he was now also responsible for creating a "broad alliance" with civil society organizations and the party. As the MDC has not been able to organize freely, the main goal of the broad alliance would be to employ other autonomous like-minded organizations to mobilize their memberships to be more politically active. Key partners in the alliance are the Zimbabwe Congress of Trade Unions (ZCTU),the National Constitutional Assembly (NCA), and the Zimbabwe Liberators' Platform (ZLP). Other members include the Evangelical Fellowship of Zimbabwe (EFZ),the Zimbabwe Council of Churches (ZCC),the Catholic Commission for Justice and Peace (CCJP) and student groups. Mudzingwa said the alliance had agreed on a "charter for change" but that that agreement would not be announced publicly. Initial activities would include a petition on electoral reform, prayer meetings, and organizing neighborhood crime watches. Mass action was the ultimate goal, but Mudzingwa did not suggest when the alliance would be ready for that. ¶3. (C) Mudzingwa said MDC,s initial goal was to collect 500,000 signatures from throughout the country on the electoral reform petition but that the goal had risen to as many as 7 million. He said he thought 7 million was ambitious. MDC will be seeking signatures in rural as well as urban areas to show that the majority of the country supports MDC. Boycott, Defections? -------------- ¶4. (C) T. William Bango, Personal Assistant to the MDC President, told poloffs June 10 that the courts and elections were not proving effective (ref A),so the party would rely more on the broad alliance and mass action, which would press MDC,s agenda by shutting down the country. He said the public was losing faith in elections, which should prompt more participation in mass action. He said that the majority of the country was young people for whom ZANU-PF,s message of land reform did not resonate. Instead, he said, the younger generation was interested in the jobs and lifestyles consistent with an industrialized, urban economy. ¶5. (C) Bango said that, although the party had made no final decision, if the MDC was not successful in pressing for election reform, the party might stay away from the March 2005 parliamentary elections because participation in the elections would legitimize them and diminish the MDC,s credibility. ¶6. (C) Bango confirmed that, on June 3, Shakespeare Maya, President the National Alliance for Good Governance (NAGG, a tiny opposition party with no elected officials) dissolved his party and joined the MDC. Mudzingwa said that MP Wilson Kumbula of another small party, ZANU-Ndonga, which holds one seat in Parliament, had also committed his party to joining the MDC but would not make that announcement until after parliamentary elections had been formally called so as not to open his seat to a by-election. Bango also asserted that 22 mid-level members of ZANU-PF, including some MPs, would be crossing the floor to MDC. He said that discussions with these members began in January and that their crossover could be announced in July. He said that these members were dissatisfied with ZANU-PF,s direction. Comment: -------------- ¶7. (C) The impotence of its legal and election strategies fuels the opposition party,s continued toying with mass action notwithstanding the failure of last year,s effort. Our interlocutors, reports on mass action largely echo earlier reports (refs C, D),however, and suggest that purported action plans are no closer to achieving critical mass. The petition idea is new and, if it gathers momentum, may pose tactical challenges to the ruling party,s modest charm offensive (ref B). The reported absorption of NAGG and putative defection of ZANU-Ndonga would do little to affect the gross political imbalance of power here, and we are skeptical of Bango,s claim that any ZANU-PF members are prepared to cross the aisle. SULLIVAN