CONGRESS HALF WAY TO ELECTORAL REFORM

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 GUATEMALA 000874

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV KDEM GT
SUBJECT: CONGRESS HALF WAY TO ELECTORAL REFORM



1. (SBU) Summary: In a last-minute shift by the ruling GANA
coalition, the Congress approved the articles of a
long-pending electoral reform law on March 31 by a two-thirds
majority. Final approval was deferred until after Congress
returns from the Easter holiday break. GANA Congressional
leaders initially opposed the bill, but gave in to opposition
demands to pass it in the face of growing internal
dissension. President Berger has said he will sign the law
despite calls (including from the Supreme Electoral Tribunal)
for its veto. Political parties support the reforms in part
due to the public financing they hope to receive based on
results in the November 2003 election. To achieve consensus
on what everyone acknowledges as an imperfect reform, all
major parties agreed to address weaknesses in the election
bill through amendments within 90 days. End Summary.

Background
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2. (U) The reforms have a tortured legislative history.
They had their genesis in a Commission on Electoral Reform
established in 1997 in compliance with the Peace Accords.
The reforms were submitted to Congress in 1998, passed
Congress in 2002 and were sent to the Constitutional Court,
which mandated changes in 2003. Electoral reform is an
element of the National Shared Agenda agreed to by all major
parties prior to the 2003 election, and by extension part of
the Governability Pact negotiated at the outset of this
Government among the GANA, UNE and PAN. The reform contains
147 articles, which were voted on individually on March 31,
including, most significantly, public financing for political
parties and decentralization of voting booths, which are
currently limited to municipal centers.


3. (U) Prior to the vote, magistrates of the Supreme
Electoral Tribunal and others criticized several aspects of
the reforms, including:

-- unclear language on what institution would produce the new
national identity and voting document

-- weaknesses in oversight of campaign spending

-- a requirement to locate voting booths in any towns of 500
or more voters

-- removal of a requirement for minority representation in
party leadership

-- increased requirements for forming new parties that favor
current parties


4. (U) In response to these criticisms, party leaders (with
the exception of the ANN and some independents) agreed to
debate amendments to address these issues within the next 90
days. They also agreed to speed consideration of unrelated
items on the legislative agenda, including reform of the
Social Security Institute, authorization of a postal service
contract, and a measure to arbitrate national electricity
price increases.

GANA Flip-Flop
--------------


5. (SBU) GANA Congressional Whip Ricardo Saravia told
PolOffs on March 26 that the GANA opposed the measure as
imperfect and would vote to kill it. Later, the GANA agreed
to vote in favor of the bill after facing the threat of a
public split on the issue with the Patriotic Party, one of
the three members of the GANA coalition, and concerted
lobbying by the PAN and UNE, the GANA's Governability Pact
partners. Saravia added that GANA still needs the PAN and
UNE as it can count only on 12 of the 20 independent
votes--leaving it well short of a working majority. PAN
Congressional whip Mario Taracena told PolOff on April 2
that, although there was no quorum for the final vote on
April 1, he believed the inter-party accord would hold and
the measure would pass with the required 2/3 majority after
Congress returns from its Easter recess. The measure is
supported by all major parties except the tiny New Nation
Alliance. Taracena said the press portrayal of inter-party
negotiations on this issue as acrimonious was not true, and
said the electoral law's passage will signal a new atmosphere
of cooperation in Congress.

Comment
--------------


6. (SBU) The reforms are long overdue and generally
positive. While the primary incentive for passage by the
opposition is financial, the GANA has a large stake in future
inter-party cooperation on other national issues in a very
divided Congress. If passed, more tough negotiations can be
expected on the amendments to the reforms.
HAMILTON