CICIACS GOES TO COURT

UNCLAS GUATEMALA 000824

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PHUM PGOV GT
SUBJECT: CICIACS GOES TO COURT



1. (SBU) Summary: The GOG-UN agreement to create a
Commission to Investigate Clandestine Groups (CICIACS) is
slowly moving toward implementation, if fitfully. The
CICIACS agreement underwent Congressional review in February
and March and will shortly be sent to the Constitutional
Court for its legal opinion. President Berger publicly
expressed his Administration's commitment to implement the
CICIACS in a national address on February 25. The Court will
likely be swayed by President Berger's public support and a
favorable ruling would make Congressional ratification more
likely. End Summary.

Presidential Position Clear
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2. (SBU) President Berger on February 25 declared his
government's strong support for CICIACS in a high-profile
ceremony "re-launching" the Peace Accords. Berger told the
Ambassador during a March 24 meeting with USAID A/A Franco
that he remains committed to CICIACS implementation. Vice
President Stein has the lead within the Executive on CICIACS,
supported by Frank LaRue, President of the Presidential
Commission on Human Rights (COPREDH). Stein plans to
reaffirm the GOG's commitment during a visit to UN
headquarters in New York later this month. At the same time,
he will explore UN willingness to adjust the agreement,
should the Constitutional Court find any of its aspects
unconstitutional.

Court Ruling Could Resolve Congressional Qualms
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3. (SBU) A 60-day deadline for Congressional consideration
of CICIACS began February 6, when the GOG-UN agreement was
sent to the Congressional Government and Human Rights
Commissions for review. In a March 29 meeting with HROff,
Nineth Montenegro Human Rights Commission President said the
Human Rights Commission would recommend that Congress request
an opinion from the Constitutional Court on the legality of
the agreement. The Government Commission will reportedly
advise against ratification. Public debate over CICIACS has
centered on constitutional and sovereignty concerns. FRG,
UNE, and GANA coalition Congressional leaders we have
consulted all agree a positive ruling by the Court would
counter those doubts and make a favorable ruling from
Congress likely.

Donor Reaction Positive
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4. (SBU) MINUGUA Human Rights Chief Patrick Gavigan now
estimates the CICIACS budget at $8-10 million/year for three
years. The UN recently held a donor meeting in New York and
anticipates positive reception from donors like the World
Bank/IDB if the UN-GOG CICIACS agreement is ratified by
Congress. There is donor consensus that the GOG should
contribute a portion of the CICIACS budget in order to
demonstrate its commitment to the process. In a February 26
meeting with the Ambassador, Helen Mack said the "Coalition
for the Establishment of CICIACS," of which she is a member,
would suggest the Public Ministry, Interior Ministry, and
National Civil Police contribute to CICIACS from their
respective budgets. Frank LaRue has told us he believes the
GOG would contribute funds as a symbolic gesture of GOG
dedication to project, but would not be able to offer
significant amounts.

Comment
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5. (SBU) The highly politicized behavior of the
Constitutional Court may actually work in favor of the
implementation of CICIACS. Our analysis of the
constitutional issues involved in CICIACS is that there is
enough gray area to permit Court rulings in favor (or
against) on the merits. Some prominent CICIACS supporters,
including Helen Mack and other human rights activists, have
long believed a Court ruling will be necessary. Although
this is the same court that ruled in favor of Gen. (ret.)
Rios Montt's quixotic presidential candidacy last year, the
Court has more recently ruled favorably on several Executive
initiatives (including the replacement of the former Attorney
General and the lifting of former President Portillo's
parliamentary immunity) and seems highly attuned to changes
in the political environment that accompanied the change in
government. Berger has made his support for CICIACS clear
and we are hopeful the Court will follow his lead. A
favorable Court ruling would make Congressional passage more
likely.
HAMILTON