Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
04GUATEMALA58
2004-01-13 15:06:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Guatemala
Cable title:  

NEW GOVERNMENT AND MAJOR OPPOSITION PARTY AGREE ON

Tags:  PGOV PREL PINR EAID GT 
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131506Z Jan 04
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 GUATEMALA 000058 

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/13/2014
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR EAID GT
SUBJECT: NEW GOVERNMENT AND MAJOR OPPOSITION PARTY AGREE ON
GOVERNABILITY PACT


Classified By: PolCouns David Lindwall for reason 1.5 (d).

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 GUATEMALA 000058

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/13/2014
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR EAID GT
SUBJECT: NEW GOVERNMENT AND MAJOR OPPOSITION PARTY AGREE ON
GOVERNABILITY PACT


Classified By: PolCouns David Lindwall for reason 1.5 (d).


1. (C) Summary: The incoming GANA government reached
agreement on January 12 with the UNE and PAN delegations in
Congress to elect the congressional leadership board and to
support a progressive legislative agenda. The agreement
gives the center-left UNE party of Alvaro Colom the
Presidency of Congress and divides the major committees
evenly between GANA and UNE. After negotiations between GANA
and UNE broke down on January 11, and at the request of Vice
President-elect Eduardo Stein, the Ambassador met with UNE
leader Colom early on January 12 to encourage him to find a
compromise. The agreement that was reached excludes the FRG
from the Congressional leadership slate (though they will be
offered the chairmanship of some commissions) and makes it
possible for the Berger Government to begin its mandate
without a hostile legislature. End summary.


2. (U) Late in the evening of January 12, negotiators for
GANA reached agreement with the newly-elected Congressional
leaders for the center-left UNE party and center-right PAN to
form a loose legislative coalition for the purposes of
electing the new Congressional leadership slate and
supporting a legislative agenda that includes Peace Accord
implementation and fiscal reform. Between them, the three
parties have close to a hundred votes (out of 158),ensuring
that they can elect the leadership slate at the inaugural
session on January 14. Under the terms of the agreement, UNE
(which came in second in the December 28 presidential runoff
election) will get the positions of President, First Vice
President and First Secretary of Congress (the officer who
manages the Congressional budget -- and patronage),while
Gana will get the next tier of positions (Note: UNE will
share its positions with the PAN. End note). GANA will get
the chairmanship of the Budget Committee, and UNE/PAN will
get the Oversight Committee. GANA and UNE/PAN will evenly
split fourteen more committees, and the remaining committees
will be divided between the FRG and the small parties. In
principle, UNE/PAN are committed to support GANA for the
presidency of Congress in 2005. The agreement also commits
the parties to supporting a legislative agenda covering
social and economic policy.


3. (C) GANA and UNE had been negotiating the governability
pact long before the December 28 runoff elections, and had
reached basic agreement on the outlines. Ill will following
a bruising campaign, however, led Colom to renege on the
original commitment and insist on new concessions that would
have virtually emasculated GANA's legislative power. At the
request of Vice President-elect Eduardo Stein, the Ambassador
met on January 12 with UNE Secretary General Colom to hear
his views on the impasse and to urge Colom to not break off
the negotiations with GANA in the pursuit of an agreement
that would ensure governability. Colom acknowledged that UNE
would ultimately have to reach agreement with GANA, as he
would not contemplate the only alternative -- negotiating
with the FRG. Colom said that UNE's decision to vote with
the FRG in the closing legislative session (on an important
bill limiting the new government's budgetary flexibility) was
taken solely to show GANA that it had to negotiate seriously
with UNE, but that UNE did not want to form an unholy
alliance with the FRG.


4. (C) GANA leaders told us early on January 12 that Oscar
Berger had responded to Colom's threats to withdraw from the
governability pact by asking his negotiators to not break off
talks with UNE. He viewed an agreement with UNE (and the
PAN) as critical, despite their demands for new concessions.
GANA has no illusions that UNE will be a faithful partner in
the Congress over the long run, but the governability pact
will keep the opposition parties from banding together during
this first year to exclude GANA from the Congressional
leadership and the key Budget Committee. Meanwhile, GANA is
actively (if discreetly) trying to recruit defectors from all
the parties in Congress -- a time-honored, if unsavory,
tradition in Guatemala. GANA currently has 52 legislators
(out of 158),and there are reports that up to 22 UNE
legislators (out of 33 elected for UNE) want to join. UNE
leaders accuse GANA of buying off their congressmen with cash
payments. There are reports of expected defections from PAN,
the FRG and the Partido Unionista as well.


5. (C) Comment: The governability pact, while not a guarantee
of blanket legislative support for the Executive, was a major
coup for Berger. The alternative -- a pact between UNE and
the FRG -- would have given full control of Congress to
Berger's enemies. Berger's instinct to seek a compromise
(opposed to the preference of some of his advisors to
confront) was critical to securing this agreement. Berger
still has an uphill battle to build a legislative majority
loyal to him, but the prospects are better with the FRG
marginalized and several key legislative leadership positions
in GANA's hands.
HAMILTON

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