ARTICLE 98 RATIFICATION PLANS PROGRESSING

C O N F I D E N T I A L GUATEMALA 002163 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/25/2014 TAGS: PGOV PREL MOPS GT SUBJECT: ARTICLE 98 RATIFICATION PLANS PROGRESSING REF: GUATEMALA 01994 Classified By: Ambassador J.R. Hamilton for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Summary: The Foreign Minister is now persuaded that moving ahead quickly on Article 98 ratification makes better sense than leaving it to an end-of-legislative session rush. The Ambassador's consultations with the FRG and Patriotic Party appear to have lined up their support. If procedural tactics in opposition can be managed and if the government can deliver all the GANA coalition votes, majority support is attainable. End summary. ¶2. (C) Since reftel, the Ambassador has consulted on Article 98 ratification with FRG deputies Arenales and Rios Sosa (separately),with GANA caucus leader Saravia, and Patriotic Party leader Perez Molina. All have responded very favorably to the Ambassador's request for support, though each wanted to consult within party councils before making firm commitments. The Ambassador has a meeting scheduled for August 30 with FRG caucus chief Crespo, at which time he hopes to obtain a firm commitment. He will meet with UNE party chief Colom August 31 to explore the possibilities with that party and will follow up with Congress president Morales shortly thereafter. The conversation with Saravia was particularly positive in that he was of the view that the government would be better advised to send the agreement forward sooner rather than later; he undertook to convey that view to FM Briz. Rios Sosa was helpful in suggesting how to avoid having the agreement assigned to a committee where there is opposition embedded. ¶3. (C) The Ambassador's meeting with Foreign Minister Briz August 25 was similarly positive, in that Briz concluded (apparently not yet having heard from Saravia) that it would be better to push the agreement through in the near future, rather than wait. He and the Ambassador discussed further details, including his idea to have his staff draft a committee report from which a Congressional committee could, in the interest of time, crib. He agreed to consult further once he returns from trips to El Salvador and New York, in about ten days. The Ambassador will have carried out his further consultations with the Guatemalan Congress in the meantime. ¶4. (C) Comment: We are not there yet, but these recent conversations are encouraging. HAMILTON