ARTICLE 98 RATIFICATION PLANS PROGRESSING

C O N F I D E N T I A L GUATEMALA 002163

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/25/2014
TAGS: PGOV PREL MOPS GT
SUBJECT: ARTICLE 98 RATIFICATION PLANS PROGRESSING

REF: GUATEMALA 01994

Classified By: Ambassador J.R. Hamilton for reasons 1.4 (b)
and (d).


1. (C) Summary: The Foreign Minister is now persuaded that
moving ahead quickly on Article 98 ratification makes better
sense than leaving it to an end-of-legislative session rush.
The Ambassador's consultations with the FRG and Patriotic
Party appear to have lined up their support. If procedural
tactics in opposition can be managed and if the government
can deliver all the GANA coalition votes, majority support is
attainable. End summary.


2. (C) Since reftel, the Ambassador has consulted on Article
98 ratification with FRG deputies Arenales and Rios Sosa
(separately),with GANA caucus leader Saravia, and Patriotic
Party leader Perez Molina. All have responded very favorably
to the Ambassador's request for support, though each wanted
to consult within party councils before making firm
commitments. The Ambassador has a meeting scheduled for
August 30 with FRG caucus chief Crespo, at which time he
hopes to obtain a firm commitment. He will meet with UNE
party chief Colom August 31 to explore the possibilities with
that party and will follow up with Congress president Morales
shortly thereafter. The conversation with Saravia was
particularly positive in that he was of the view that the
government would be better advised to send the agreement
forward sooner rather than later; he undertook to convey that
view to FM Briz. Rios Sosa was helpful in suggesting how to
avoid having the agreement assigned to a committee where
there is opposition embedded.


3. (C) The Ambassador's meeting with Foreign Minister Briz
August 25 was similarly positive, in that Briz concluded
(apparently not yet having heard from Saravia) that it would
be better to push the agreement through in the near future,
rather than wait. He and the Ambassador discussed further
details, including his idea to have his staff draft a
committee report from which a Congressional committee could,
in the interest of time, crib. He agreed to consult further
once he returns from trips to El Salvador and New York, in
about ten days. The Ambassador will have carried out his
further consultations with the Guatemalan Congress in the
meantime.


4. (C) Comment: We are not there yet, but these recent
conversations are encouraging.
HAMILTON