GANA-FRG VOTE STIRS CONTROVERSY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 GUATEMALA 001241



SIPDIS



DEPARTMENT FOR WHA/CEN WHA/PPC AND DRL



E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/15/2014

TAGS: PGOV, PHUM, CVIS, GT

SUBJECT: GANA-FRG VOTE STIRS CONTROVERSY



REF: 03 GUATEMALA 1908



Classified By: Acting PolCouns Erik Hall, for reason 1.5 (b&d).



1. (C) Summary: Reaction by the opposition, civil society

and press has been fiercely negative to a perceived GANA-FRG

alliance which on May 15 gave the GANA control over the

Permanent Commission which controls Congress during the

summer recess. The GANA turned to the FRG after some of its

own members (in the Patriot Party) refused to support the

GANA's candidates for the commission. The break provoked

speculation (as yet unconfirmed) that the Patriot Party (PP)

would pull out of the GANA; that the Governability Pact

between the GANA and non-FRG opposition was over; and that a

fuller GANA-FRG alliance is in the offing. The skirmish over

the Permanent Commission could affect prospects for passage

of high-priority fiscal reforms during the Congressional

recess. It may also affect Congressional consideration of

other issues of USG interest. End Summary.



Permanent Commission Maneuvers

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2. (U) The regular Congressional session ended on May 15 and

will resume on August 1. To convoke an extraordinary session

to debate pending fiscal reforms, on May 14 Congress took up

the issue of appointing a Permanent Commission composed of

the President of Congress (Rolando Morales, of the UNE); two

of Congress' five current secretaries, drawn by lot; and two

other members, to be approved by a vote of the plenary. When

the GANA and FRG moved for a vote on the last two positions

(GANA deputies Jorge Mendez Herbruger and Hector Perez, both

of the "M-17" faction loyal to President Berger),Patriot

Party members walked out of the plenary. They accused GANA

leader Ricardo Saravia of reneging on a promise to submit PP

deputy Gudy Rivera Estrada for nomination with Herbruger. On

May 15, the Herbruger-Perez slate was elected by the plenary

with 83 votes in favor (including the FRG, GANA, minus the

PP, and some independent votes). President of Congress

Morales later announced that the two Permanent Commission

members drawn by lot were Otoniel Fernandez (UNE) and Jose <br />
Conrado Garcia (GANA).



Berger-Rios Montt Dialogue

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3. (U) President Berger met with GANA party leaders,

including Patriot Party leader Otto Perez Molina, on May 17.

The agenda reportedly included the congressional controversy

over his private dialogue with FRG leader Efrain Rios Montt,

which recently became public.



4. (SBU) Since March 8, Rios Montt has been under a court

order to remain in Guatemala pending the investigation of his

involvement in the organization of demonstrations July 24-25,

2003, popularly known as "Black Thursday" and "Friday in

Mourning." Nevertheless, as party leader, Rios Montt has

maintained a regular, private dialogue with President Berger

and has also met occasionally with other opposition party

leaders. These secret meetings have recently become public

and were confirmed by both Berger and Rios Montt. On May 12,

Rios Montt put in a rare appearance in Congress, and

commented publicly on the GOG's proposed fiscal reform

package, saying the FRG was "open to dialogue to achieve

agreements on this issue." The next day, the courts

tightened the house arrest order against Rios Montt,

restricting him and six other suspects from leaving their

homes without permission of the court.



5. (U) The reaction to the news of the May 15 vote was

strongly negative. PAN leader Lionel Lopez Rodas, accused of

accepting diverted public funds during the campaign, declared

that "now we know who is with the FRG." Human rights leader

Orlando Blanco speaking on behalf of the civil society group

"Collective of Social Organizations," denounced the Rios

Montt-Berger "negotiation of taxes in exchange for impunity"

and demanded that Berger rescind any agreement made. Press

editorials lamented GANA-FRG cooperation and accused the

Government of believing the end justifies the means.



Comment

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6. (C) It is unclear whether the GANA's tactics on the

Permanent Commission were calculated to rid the coalition of

the uncooperative Perez Molina, and whether they will

succeed. It is conceivable to us that Berger and his

loyalists now view Perez Molina as a political liability (due

to disappointing results against crime) or a political

threat. Always a controversial figure, Perez Molina has

embedded his own loyalists in positions of authority in the

institutions he oversees as GOG Security Commissioner

(Ministry of Government, Defense, National Civilian Police

and the Immigration Directorate). If Perez Molina does

withdraw the Patriot Party from the governing coalition, the

GANA will lose eight Congressional votes, making passage of

the fiscal reforms all the more difficult, and potentially

affecting other Congressional issues of USG interest,

including CICIACS and Article 98.



7. (C) Facing the challenge of a fractious coalition and

Congress, Berger chose to team with the FRG to advance

crucial fiscal reforms. That pragmatism came with some

political cost. The harsh reaction by the press and civil

society to news of the Berger-Rios Montt dialogue and May 15

vote reflects partisan (anti-FRG) sentiment in those sectors.

In weighing further cooperation with the FRG, the Berger

government will be sensitive to the risk of further damage to

its credibility with these sectors, and is therefore more

likely to court ad-hoc alliances than any exclusive

arrangement.

HAMILTON