SCENESETTER FOR THE PRESIDENT'S TRIP TO IRELAND

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 DUBLIN 000867

SIPDIS

NSC FOR MCKIBBENS AND VOLKER, DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/UBI

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/08/2014
TAGS: PREL PTER PHUM ETRD EAIR MASS MARR CASC CVIS EUN
SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR THE PRESIDENT'S TRIP TO IRELAND
JUNE 25-26: THE BILATERAL AGENDA

REF: DUBLIN 826

Classified By: CDA Jane B. Fort, reason 1.4 (d)


1. (C) Summary: Irish President Mary McAleese and Prime
Minister Bertie Ahern are looking forward to welcoming the
President to Dromoland Castle in the west of Ireland for the
U.S.-EU Summit June 26. Ahern can be justly proud of his
management of the EU Presidency to date, including his
leadership in helping to repair TransAtlantic ties. His
higher international profile is espeically useful as Ahern
continues to struggle domestically. His political party is
predicted to lose seats in June 11 local and European
Parliament elections, despite an economic upturn, as voters
take out their frustration over the slow pace of reforms in
basic services.


2. (C) Although militarily neutral Ireland did not support
the war in Iraq, and we expect a vocal (if harmless) turnout
of protestors (reftel),the state of U.S.-Irish relations
remains as strong as ever. Ireland continues to allow the
U.S. military to refuel at Shannon airport, to foster the
vibrant commercial ties between our nations, and to support
major peacekeeping operations such as ISAF and Liberia. U.S.
support for political progress in Northern Ireland is deeply
appreciated, and is a subject of particular passion for
President McAleese and her husband. We should push the Irish
Government to break the logjam in Parliament on new laws to
criminalize international terrorism. With a UN mandate,
Ireland could send troops to Iraq, although this would be
unpopular; we may wish to sound out Ahern on this. End
Summary.

The Domestic Scene
--------------


3. (SBU) On June 11, PM Ahern's coalition government faces
its first real test since general elections in 2002, as
voters elect local and city councillors, and Members of the
European Parliament (MEP). Voter unhappiness with perceived
backtracking on promises to improve basic services has
gradually diminished Ahern's approval ratings, currently in
the low 40s. Analysts expect that Ahern's coalition will
lose a significant number of local seats, and possibly an MEP
seat or two, with more left-leaning parties such as Sinn Fein
and Labour predicted to benefit. While a drubbing in these
elections will by no means signify the end of the Ahern
government, it could hasten a cabinet shake-up this summer.
Public irritation with the government centers on its
struggles to deliver adequate health care services,
education, public transportation and infrastructure and
policing.


Irish Interests in the EU Presidency
--------------


4. (C) On a happier note for Ahern, the PM has won kudos
throughout the EU for competent management of difficult
issues facing the Union, including repairing the
TransAtlantic relationship, the accession of ten new member
states, valiant attempts at a Cyprus settlement, responding
to the terror attacks in Madrid, and talks to negotiate a
European Constitution. The Irish government prides itself on
being the bridge between "Boston and Berlin", and Ahern will
reiterate that one of his top priorities is strengthening
U.S.-EU ties. The relationship is indeed in much better
shape than it was six months ago, and Ireland will continue
to push for reduced trade and investment barriers, and closer
U.S.-EU coordination on Iraq and the Arab-Israeli conflict.
However, the Irish are also strong multilateralists, and
Ahern will urge the fullest possible UN engagement in Iraq
and the Middle East. Ireland has a history of development
assistance to Africa, due to a long tradition of missionary
work, and Ahern will be particularly pleased to oversee a
joint statement on HIV-AIDS cooperation. Finally, Ahern is
likely to briefly raise ITER, following up on a promise to
French President Chirac during his recent visit to Dublin.

Trade and Investment
--------------


5. (SBU) Our bilateral commercial relationship is
impressive. U.S. investment in Ireland is approximately USD
42 billion, with over 550 companies employing close to
100,000 Irish workers. Information technology,
pharmaceuticals, biotechnology and financial services are the
big investors here, with most of the Fortune 500 firms
represented. A well-educated, English-speaking workforce
with an American-style work ethic and legal system are major
factors, in addition to the low corporate tax rate of 12
percent. Ireland is the ninth largest foreign investor in
the United States (USD 30 billion) and employs some 40,000
Americans.


6. (SBU) Ireland is anxious to maintain its favored
investment status with the U.S. in the newly-expanded EU, as
former Eastern European countries adopt the successful Irish
model. As a result, the Irish are aggressively working to
move up the value-added chain into higher-end R&D programs to
remain competitive.

Counterterrorism Measures
--------------


7. (SBU) Ireland has tough laws to counter domestic
terrorism, due to the legacy of paramilitary activity in the
Northern Ireland conflict. The Irish and British governments
have excellent cooperation in cracking down on dissident
republican paramilitary groups across the entire island. In
2003, the Irish -- with help from an FBI informant --
successfully prosecuted their first case of "leadership in a
terrorist organization", jailing the leader of the Real IRA.


8. (C) Unfortunately, legislation to criminalize
international terrorism has been hung up in the Irish
Parliament for over two years. Ireland is party to five of
the twelve UN Conventions Against Terorrism, but human rights
concerns have stalled movement on legislation to allow
Ireland to become party to the remaining seven. The GOI
hopes to push the legislation through the Parliament by the
time of the Summit, but this appears unlikely. Negotiations
on a protocol to harmonize the U.S.-Irish Mutual Legal
Assistance Treaty (MLAT) with the U.S.-EU MLAT appear poised
for completion by the end of June.

Peacekeeping
--------------


9. (C) Irish Defense Forces are currently deployed to
Kosovo, Afghanistan, Lebanon, and Liberia, where Ireland is
the largest non-African contingency. The Irish Government
recently took the decision to extend the ISAF and UNIFIL
missions, for which Ahern should be congratulated. There are
no Irish forces in Iraq; under Irish law, troops cannot be
deployed without a UN-authorized mission. You should probe
Ahern on his willingness to send Irish peacekeepers to Iraq
under a UN mandate. There would be strong resistance from
the Parliament and the public, but this is an opportunity for
Ireland to reaffirm its belief in the primacy of the United
Nations by contributing to a multinational force.

Northern Ireland
--------------


10. (SBU) Elections in November 2003 to the suspended
Northern Ireland Assembly put the Democratic Unionist Party
(DUP) and Sinn Fein as the largest parties, but did not bring
the restoration of devolved government. The DUP refuses to
enter into government with Sinn Fein until the Irish
Republican Army (IRA) ends all paramilitary activity.
Despite tremendous demands on British PM Blair and Irish PM
Ahern, the two leaders have dedicated enormous personal time
and effort to try to put together a deal to restart the
political process. Under discussion is further
decommissioning of IRA weapons, a political decision by
republicans to end IRA paramilitary activity, Sinn Fein
agreement to support the reformed Police Service of Northern
Ireland, HMG delivery on demilitarization and devolution of
security and justice functions, and DUP agreement to enter
into negotations with Sinn Fein.


11. (SBU) A non-violent summer of sectarian marches will
be critical to the success of this effort, as will a second
report this fall from the International Monitoring Commission
-- a four member body of officials from Ireland, Northern
Ireland, Britain, and the United States. (Former CIA Deputy
Director Richard Kerr is the U.S. member.) The Commission,
charged by the governments with monitoring and reporting on
abuses of the Good Friday Agreement, issued its first report
in April, in which it criticized republican and loyalist
paramilitary groups for illegal activities.


12. (SBU) Embassies Dublin and London, Consulate General
Belfast, and your Special Envoy Mitchell Reiss have continued
to facilitate dialogue among political leaders in Dublin,
London, and Belfast. We also continue to contribute to the
International Fund for Ireland, a British-Irish project to
generate employment and training in the neglected border
areas and sectarian neighborhoods in Belfast, Derry and other
cities, and to provide alternatives to joining illegal
paramilitary groups.

Shannon Airport
--------------


13. (SBU) Shannon airport, in the west of Ireland, is an
important gateway for U.S. commercial and military travel.
We have a long-standing arrangement with the GOI whereby U.S.
military aircraft land and refuel at Shannon, en route to the
Gulf, Afghanistan, etc. This policy was, and remains, the
focal point of anti-war protestors who view this as a
violation of Irish neutrality. We appreciate the GOI's
continued support, and steps it has taken to ensure the
security of the nearly 126,000 U.S. forces who passed through
Shannon in 2003.


14. (C) The commercial use of Shannon by U.S. carriers is
also a sensitive issue, as we negotiate a U.S.-EU Open Skies
agreement which will see the phase-out of the "Shannon
stopover", which currently forces half of U.S. flights to
land at Shannon prior to traveling on to Dublin. The Shannon
airport authority and Shannon-area tourism industries insist
the elimination of this requirement will be disastrous for
the region's development and the airport's viability;
TransAtlantic passenger and cargo traffic currently account
for 40 percent of the airport's total annual revenues. We
believe these concerns can be addressed through smart
marketing of products and services, and Open Skies talks will
benefit both U.S. and Irish carriers by adding new routes in
Ireland and the U.S., respectively.

Travel and Security
--------------


15. (SBU) Approximately 900,000 Americans travel to
Ireland each year for business and tourism, and over 300,00
Irish visit the United States. The implementation of the
US-VISIT program at pre-clearance immigration facilities at
Shannon and Dublin airports has been extremely smooth, in
part because Ireland is on the Visa Waiver Program and most
Irish travelers do not yet have to be fingerprinted. Ireland
is one of the few EU countries on track to meet the October
24, 2004 deadline for introducing passports with biometric
identifiers, an effort worth acknowledging.
FORT