C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DUBLIN 000826

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/UBI

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/01/2009
TAGS: PREL PGOV ASEC EUN
SUBJECT: ANTI-WAR ELEMENTS PRESSURING GOVERNMENT ON
PRESIDENT'S VISIT TO IRELAND


Classified By: DCM Jane B. Fort, reason 1.4 (d)


1. (C) Summary: Some Irish opposition politicians are
teaming up with anti-war organizations to protest President
Bush,s visit to Ireland June 25-26. Sinn Fein, the Greens,
and Labour have announced their support for mass
demonstrations, while various Parliamentary deputies have
called on the GOI to take action ranging from canceling the
visit to demarching the President on abuses at Abu Ghraib.
Dismay over Iraq, especially the lack of an international
mandate for military action, is key. Electioneering for June
11 local and MEP elections is in part responsible for this
grandstanding, reflecting negative public sentiment against
the President,s visit. However, we do not anticipate any
disruption to the Summit, which will highlight the strong
TransAtlantic ties valued by the majority of Irish. End
Summary.

Politicians Gauging Anti-War Sentiment
--------------


2. (SBU) The Irish Anti-War Movement is hoping for a
repeat of the February 2003 rally which saw 100,000 on the
streets of Dublin to protest the pending Iraq war and the
GOI,s granting of refuel and overflight rights to the U.S.
military. A fundraising concert in Dublin featuring
prominent Irish musician Christy Moore (among others), and
backed by the largest Irish trade union, is scheduled for
June 19. Proceeds will be used to organize nation-wide
demonstrations on June 25 and a march on June 26 from the
Summit site to Shannon airport. Opposition parties Sinn
Fein, the Greens, and Labour have lent their support to the
protests, along with several independent Deputies.


3. (C) In Parliament, the government has come under
pressure from all the opposition parties to take a stand
against U.S. action in Iraq. Some have called on PM Ahern to
close Shannon airport to the U.S. military, to make a
personal demarche to President Bush on the Abu Ghraib abuses,
and to relocate the Summit to Brussels. With local and
European Parliamentary elections scheduled for June 11, all

parties are playing to populist elements -- including the
government coalition. PM Ahern and FM Cowen have gone on
record to criticize USG prison abuses, while Mary Harney,
Deputy PM, leader of the coalition partner Progressive
Democrats, and -- in her own words -- "one of the most
pro-American politicians" in Ireland, has made clear that she
intends to raise the Abu Ghraib scandal during the
President's visit. She foresees public protests as well,
characterizing them as "no bad thing." Enda Kenny, leader of
the moderate opposition party Fine Gael, insisted to the
Ambassador that a statement attributed to him that the Summit
should move to Brussels was false.


4. (C) PM Ahern,s Fianna Fail party may be hoping that,
once past the June elections, there will be less impetus to
grandstand on Iraq. Barry Andrews, an up-and-coming,
well-connected Fianna Fail Deputy, told us he thought the
Irish public and politicians will have had their say on Iraq
by the time of the visit, and said he was not concerned about
high profile public statements or elaborate demonstrations
during the Summit.

Vocal, if Shallow, Opposition Centered on Iraq
-------------- -


5. (C) We are more cautious. An "Irish Examiner" poll
released May 29 found 67 percent opposed to the President,s
visit, with supporters only weighing in at 19 percent.
Opposition to the U.S. military,s use of Shannon remains
constant (though not universal), and a May 17-21 goodwill
visit of the Sixth Fleet command ship USS LaSalle was greeted
with deep suspicion by media and some members of Parliament.
Dublin City Council approved a measure to fly white peace
flags in lieu of the U.S. flag during the visit, and
protestors have even seized on relatively low-key events (HHS
Secretary Thompson,s participation in a health conference in

SIPDIS
Cork, a trip by the Ambassador to Galway) to demonstrate
against U.S. foreign policy. A group calling itself "U.S.
Citizens for Peace" plans weekly vigils at the embassy
throughout the month of June.


6. (C) Unforeseen events on the ground in Iraq, and the
impending transfer of sovereignty around the time of the
Summit could also create new excuses for protests.
Continued violence in the Arab-Israeli conflict, and the
perception of U.S. bias towards Israel and the Sharon
government, may further fuel protests.

Government Committed to TransAtlantic Ties
--------------

7. (C) Notwithstanding popular (and populist) pressure,
the GOI is committed to a smooth, secure, and productive
summit which showcases the mutual benefits of the U.S.-EU
relationship. The Irish are fully engaged in both the
substantive and logistical preparations for the visit, and
working with their EU counterparts to hammer out language on
a range of statements highlighting areas of cooperation.



8. (C) The Irish are also taking very seriously the
security arrangements for the visit. Thousands of uniformed
police and defense forces personnel will be drafted into the
Shannon area to provide extensive perimeter security at
Shannon airport and the Summit site. In an April meeting
with senior Irish police officials, the U.S. Secret Service
and RSO reached agreement on many key security issues.
USG-GOI cooperation and coordination continues, and we are
confident that protestors will not disrupt the Summit.
Comment
--------------


9. (C) Popular opposition to current U.S. foreign policy
notwithstanding, it would be a gross misstatement to
characterize the Irish mood as anti-American. Family,
travel, and business ties are as strong and healthy as ever,
and we believe the view of the United States from the man in
the street remains, on balance, positive. Much of the
"anti-Bush" sentiment expressed by protestors and opposition
politicians is, in fact, aimed at trying to elicit from the
Irish Government a clear statement opposing U.S. action in
Iraq. The GOI proved its mettle last year, weathering
anti-Shannon protests at the onset of the Iraq war and
maintaining a pragmatic position in support of both
multilateralism and TransAtlantic ties. We expect no less
from them this time around.
KENNY