C O N F I D E N T I A L DUBLIN 001713

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/23/2014
TAGS: PARM PREL PHUM EUN
SUBJECT: CHINA ARMS EMBARGO: IRELAND TO FOLLOW EU CONSENSUS

REF: A. SECSTATE 247288


B. DUBLIN 01700

Classified By: POLITICAL ECONOMIC COUNSELOR MARY DALY
FOR REASONS 1.4.(B) AND (D)


1. (C) On November 23, Emboff, drawing on reftel points,
spoke to Niall Brady, the DFA's Deputy Director for
Asia-Pacific Affairs. Brady stated that while Ireland
remains concerned about human rights and regional stability,
it would not block EU consensus, either on a decision to lift
the embargo or a decision to announce an intention to lift
the embargo at the EU-China summit. He said that the lifting
of the embargo is inevitable, and only a matter of modalities
and time. He predicted that the lift will be implemented
sometime during or after the British EU presidency. The
embargo, he said, is "anachronistic" and has failed to stop
human rights abuses or prevent China from exerting pressure
on neighboring countries. Ireland wants to see demonstrations
of improvements in China, he said, but the EU has not set
specific conditions and are not likely to, as the EU does not
want to alienate the Chinese Government by making outright
demands. He said the Chinese Government recognizes the
importance of economic relations with the EU as well as the
fact that it will have to meet some of the EU's concerns in
order for positive relations to continue. Brady added that
Ireland does not have an arms trade with China.


2. (C) In a later conversation with Embassy's POL/ECON chief,
Cliona Manahan, DFA Director for Asia-Pacific affairs, said
that the EU continues to grapple with the inconsistency of
calling China a strategic partner while still keeping the
embargo in place. She said that the Chinese Vice Premier
made that point strongly in his visit to Ireland, and that
that argument resonates with EU governments. She said that
there is a feeling among the EU that there should be a
natural progression in relations with China, a logical
extension of which would be lifting the embargo. The
question, she said, is how and when. She noted the
importance of strengthening the Code of Conduct. She also
noted continuing opposition from parliaments and publics to
lifting the embargo, and said that NGOs have told the GOI
there is more that China can be pushed to do on human rights.
At this point, she said, it is not yet clear how the EU will
handle the summit with China, or what further progress the EU
might require of China.


3. (C) Comment: The Irish "bottom line" has been consistent
since July, namely that they will follow EU consensus.
However, their emphasis has changed. In October, they
focused more on their concerns about lifting the embargo.
They said then that EU governments increasingly understood
and shared regional security concerns and also were affected
by parliamentary opposition, based on human rights concerns,
to lifting the embargo. This week, they have returned more to
the theme that lifting the embargo is inevitable and it is up
to others (largely the Dutch, as EU president) to help shape
the "how" and "when." We suspect that the Chinese Vice
Premier's visit this month affected the Irish, switching the
balance of the argument to what Manahan referred to as the
inconsistency of maintaining an embargo on a "strategic
partner". Both Manahan and Brady referred to the pressures
they have felt from China and "third parties," including the
U.S.
KENNY