PEACE PROCESS: IRELAND/UK TO SET NOVEMBER 24

C O N F I D E N T I A L DUBLIN 001686 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/12/2014 TAGS: PREL EI NIPP SUBJECT: PEACE PROCESS: IRELAND/UK TO SET NOVEMBER 24 DEADLINE Classified By: AMB JAMES KENNY FOR REASONS 1.4 B AND D Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) On November 14, Michael Collins, advisor to PM Ahern, told Amb Kenny that Ireland and the UK had just agreed a timetable for the Northern Ireland peace process. On Wednesday, November 17, the governments will present papers to the parties (the Irish will present to Sinn Fein and the British to DUP). The parties will then have until November 24 to respond. On November 26, the two prime ministers will hold a joint press conference in Belfast, either announcing a deal, if one has been reached, or describing to the public what the deal could have been. They hope the public then would pressure the parties to take the deal. Collins described the two governments as being perfectly in sync, and in agreement that what is on offer now from Sinn Fein should be taken. He said it was "surreal" that a deal has not yet been reached given the significance of Sinn Fein's offer and the fact that points of disagreement are very minor. The problem, he said, is DUP reluctance. The key is to bring the Rev. Ian Paisley on board. This, he said, would be easier to do if the IRA would agree to publish photos of materiel as part of the decommissioning process. He asked that the USG raise this matter with Sinn Fein. End Summary DUP named biggest obstacle to deal -------------- ¶2. (C) Collins said the main problem now is DUP's reluctance to agree to anything before elections. Both governments believe Paisley holds the key and that if he agrees, he can bring the rest of his party along. DUP, Collins said, already has agreed to all but one word of the IRA statement. The only outstanding issue in the IRA statement is whether IRA will agree to define itself as being in a "peaceful mode" following decommissioning. As for decommissioning, Collins said the parties have agreed that two independent witnesses would be allowed, but have not agreed on what the witnesses could say publicly. More significantly, the Irish believe the Rev Ian Paisley is unlikely to accept a deal unless IRA agrees to publish photographs of materiel. Sinn Fein has told the GOI that IRA twice has refused to publish photos. Collins said it would be very helpful if the U.S. would weigh in with Sinn Fein. (The proposal is for the IRA to take photos of the materiel, with witnesses present, before decommissioning, not of the decommissioning itself. They would only be made public after an Executive is formed.) Timeline if a deal is reached -------------- ¶3. (C) Collins said that if a deal is reached, four statements will follow: the IRA's statement on decommissioning; the UK's statement on demilitarization and "On the Runs"; a DUP statement accepting a timeline for devolution of policing and justice; and a Sinn Fein statement agreeing to joint policing. The governments would foresee full decommissioning by the end of December, a shadow assembly in January, the UK lifting suspension of the assembly in February, and an executive in place in March. If a deal is not reached, Collins said the governments have not fully fleshed out next steps, but will want to find a way to take the IRA's offer. Sinn Fein, he said, has not clarified what its "price" would be, but the GOI assumes it would require a greater role for Ireland in Northern Ireland. KENNY