C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 COLOMBO 000870

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR D, SA, SA/INS, EUR/NB, EUR/ERA, EAP/J
NSC FOR E. MILLARD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/25/14
TAGS: PREL PTER EAID PGOV CE JA NO EU IN LTTE
SUBJECT: Sri Lanka: Upcoming meeting of the Co-Chairs
of the Tokyo Process in Brussels

Refs: Colombo 827, and previous

(U) Classified by Ambassador Jeffrey J. Lunstead.
Reasons 1.5 (b, d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: On June 1, the four Co-Chairs (Norway,
Japan, the U.S., and EU) of the Tokyo Process are
scheduled to meet in Brussels. The meeting is an
important one and will build on recent visits to Sri
Lanka by the Norwegian facilitators, GoJ Special Envoy
Akashi, and SA A/S Rocca. Recent news regarding the
peace process has been largely positive, with the GSL
and the LTTE underscoring their interest in resuming
talks later this year. That said, the situation is
fragile due to political instability in the south and
the difficulty of dealing with the LTTE given its
continuing track record of aggressive behavior. In the
meantime, on the assistance side activities in the North
and East slowed down in the lead up to elections and
period of conflict between the LTTE and the Karuna
faction. These activities have now resumed. However,
to make an impact in the near to medium term, the number
of humanitarian assistance and rehabilitation activities
need to increase, speed up and be better coordinated to
demonstrate wider impact. This will require additional
donor mechanisms such as a NERF-like funding scheme.


2. (C) SUMMARY (Continued): We believe that the June 1
meeting should send a strong signal of international
support for the peace process, especially for the
parties' declared commitment to resuming talks.
Participants should also call for strict adherence to
the ceasefire. At the same time, the LTTE should be
urged to act responsibly and to respect human rights
fully. In light of both sides' public commitment to
resume talks, Co-Chairs should call for an acceleration
of relief and rehabilitation assistance delivery to the
north and east while noting that full-s

cale
reconstruction awaits progress in the peace talks.
Overall, we think a strong message of international
backing for the positive trends tentatively emerging in
Sri Lanka can play a key role in convincing the parties
to return to the negotiating table and make substantive
progress there. END SUMMARY.

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Review of Current Situation
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3. (C) The four Co-Chairs of the Tokyo Process are
scheduled to meet in Brussels on June 1. The meeting is
an important one, and it will build on recent visits to
Sri Lanka by Norwegian FM Petersen and deputy FM
Helgesen, Japanese Special Envoy Akashi, and A/S Rocca
(see Reftels). The news regarding the peace process is
largely positive, based on the results of those visits.
Sri Lankan government interlocutors, including President
Kumaratunga, for example, reiterated their interest in
resuming talks later this year. (Talks have been on
hold since April 2003.) In meetings with the Norwegians
and the Japanese, the Tigers also said they were on
board for eventual talks. The Norwegians have made
clear that arranging negotiations will take at least
several months. While the exact agenda of possible
talks has not yet been set, the GSL appears to have
agreed to LTTE demands to confine initial discussions to
the issue of how to come to an interim agreement on
power-sharing in the north and east, as well as how to
accelerate assistance to those in need. Discussion of a
possible final settlement would take place further down
the line.


4. (C) Despite the generally good news on the peace
front, there are still many potential obstacles to real
progress. The political situation in the south is
confusing and volatile, for example. Based on the
results of the recent election, parties that are
skeptical of the peace process, such as the radical JVP
and the JHU (led by Buddhist monks), have entered
Parliament in large numbers. At the same time, the pro-
LTTE Tamil National Alliance (TNA), the other extreme,
is also represented in Parliament in unprecedented
numbers. Moreover, it remains unclear whether the
United National Party (UNP), the main opposition party,
will play ball with the government. Although the UNP
launched the peace process in 2001, it may be so
resentful of its recent defeat in the parliamentary
election that it will seek to undermine the government
any chance it gets. Finally, the government, which
remains in minority status in Parliament, continues to
give off hints that it may try to change the
Constitution to get rid of the executive presidency in
favor of a full-fledged Westminster-type system.
(President Kumaratunga faces term-limits in 2005-2006
and wants to remain in control as prime minister.) If
the GSL moves forward with this idea, it will create a
flashpoint of controversy, which will probably work to
put the peace process on the back burner for some time.


5. (C) The LTTE remains a serious obstacle for the
peace process. As mentioned, the group has made the
right soundings about wanting to get back to talks.
That said, its behavior on the ground continues to be
poor. Killings of Tiger opponents continue and
harassment is endemic, and child recruitment has begun
again. Emblematic of the LTTE's recent behavior was its
brazen and successful effort to fix the election of TNA
candidates in the recent election. Given this track
record, it is difficult to say with a high degree of
certainty how serious the Tigers are about moving
forward on peace negotiations. Nonetheless, the group
seems to feel that it is getting what it wants from the
peace process at this time and there are no reports that
it wants to break out of the current situation.


6. (C) On the assistance side, the election clearly
indicated that the Sri Lankan people wanted a greater
demonstration of the tangible benefits of peace. In
order for this impact to be realized, greater planning
and coordination among donors and between donors and the
GSL, at the national, provincial and district levels is
needed to assure that the most appropriate assistance is
targeted to the areas in greatest need in the most
timely manner. Both the Government and the LTTE need to
be encouraged to make progress on key indicators laid
out in the Tokyo declaration to ensure that the funds
pledged to meet the development needs of Sri Lanka are
released.

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Calibrating the Message in Brussels
--------------


7. (C) As was done during their February 17 meeting in
Washington, we believe that the Co-Chairs should use the
June 1 meeting to send a strong signal of international
support for the peace process, as well as call for
strict adherence to the ceasefire. Parties should be
urged to resume talks in a structured, rational way, and
in a timely manner. While it was positive that the
April parliamentary elections were the most peaceful in
years, it is also important that the parties in the
south try to bridge differences and work together in the
national interest. Both sides need to avoid
inflammatory rhetoric and appeals based on ethnic and
religious intolerance, so as not to undermine the gains
made by the peace process over the past two and a half
years.


8. (C) Regarding the LTTE, the group should be urged to
act responsibly and to stop the killings, abductions,
harassment, child recruitment, etc. In addition, it is
imperative that international and local implementing
partners are able to function independently and without
fear or intimidation in providing assistance. The LTTE
must understand that its pattern of behavior has been
the single most important reason that donors have been
unable to provide increased developmental assistance to
the north and east. Nonetheless, given recent positive
signals about a possible resumption of talks, the Co-
Chairs should underscore that they believe that the
delivery of relief and rehabilitation (humanitarian)
assistance should be accelerated to all needy areas of
Sri Lanka, especially the north and east, while noting
that full-scale assistance will require further progress
in the peace talks, as laid out in the Tokyo
Declaration. The Co-Chairs should also call on the GSL
to organize itself effectively so that assistance
delivery can be provided expeditiously and equitably to
those in need.

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COMMENT
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9. (C) Overall, we think a strong message of
international backing for the positive trends emerging
in Sri Lanka can play a key role in convincing the
parties to return to the negotiating table and make
progress there. Coming after the recent visits by
Petersen, Akashi, and A/S Rocca and this week's Solheim
visit, which closely followed the April election, the
June 1 meeting is well-timed to deliver this signal of
international resolve.


10. (C) COMMENT (Continued): At the same time, the
June 1 meeting comes at an important time in South Asia
given the recent Indian elections. Although there is no
indication that the new government in New Delhi plans
any shift way from its support for Sri Lanka's peace
process, the abrupt change in power has been somewhat
disconcerting to many in Sri Lanka. Many observers, for
example, feel that the Congress Party takes a more hard-
line view on how to deal with the LTTE (given the 1991
assassination of Rajiv Gandhi by the LTTE). By again
publicly underscoring their support for the peace
process, the Co-Chairs will assure Sri Lankans that the
international community continues to back the process.
By doing so, the Co-Chairs will also be sending a
gentle, indirect message to India that it should remain
on board with its own support. END COMMENT.


11. (U) Minimize considered.

LUNSTEAD