Tigers say they still support ceasefire accord,

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 COLOMBO 000069

SIPDIS


DEPARTMENT FOR SA, SA/INS, INR/NESA, S/CT;
NSC FOR E. MILLARD

PLEASE ALSO PASS TOPEC

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01-13-14
TAGS: PGOV PTER PINR PINS KPAO CE LTTE
SUBJECT: Tigers say they still support ceasefire accord,
but signal their impatience with impasse in Colombo

Refs: Colombo 54, and previous

(U) Classified by James F. Entwistle, Deputy Chief of
Mission. Reasons 1.5 (b,d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: In the wake of the recent controversy
over the PM's remarks about the ceasefire accord, Tiger
officials have publicly reaffirmed their support for the
ceasefire and the peace process. The Tigers and pro-
Tiger elements have expressed a significant degree of
impatience with the cohabitation impasse in Colombo,
however. In the meantime, the Tigers have been engaging
in some rough behavior on-the-ground. Through their
latest pronouncements, the Tigers are pretty clearly
veering away from their previous "charm offensive"-mode
in order to underline their exasperation with the south.
END SUMMARY.

LTTE Says It Still Supports Ceasefire
--------------

2. (C) High-level Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam
(LTTE) officials have recently underscored the group's
continued support for the ceasefire agreement that it
signed with the Sri Lankan government in February 2002.
The comments come in the wake of recent remarks by Prime
Minister Wickremesinghe to the effect that President
Kumaratunga should take over responsibility for the
ceasefire accord as long as she controls the Defense
Ministry (see Reftels). Recent comments by the Tigers
on this matter include:

-- On January 12, in an interview with Reuters, Tiger
political chief S.P. Thamilchelvam said the LTTE still
supported the ceasefire accord, adding that "there is a
resolute commitment by the Liberation Tigers
organization that the Liberation Tigers will not be the
ones to commence it (hostilities)." Adding that the
Tigers were ready to commence negotiations with either
the President or the Prime Minister, Thamilchelvam also
stated, "It does not matter if it is the executive
president or the legislative prime minister, it is only
the power that the person holds, the mandate the person
holds."

-- Echoing Thamilchelvam's comments regarding the LTTE's
support for the ceasefire agreement, Tiger spokesman
Daya Master was quoted on January 11 as stating that
"under no circumstances" would the Tigers violate the
ceasefire and go back to war.

Group Concerned re Situation in South, However
--------------

3. (C) While both Thamilchelvam and Daya Master
expressed their support for the ceasefire accord, they
also noted their concerns with the political situation
in the south. Thamilchelvam, for example, emphasized
that the Tamils are becoming impatient with the
political impasse in the south. In semi-threatening
tones, he went on to state: "It depends on the
government and the military machine of the government to
ensure that the Tamil people are not pushed towards such
a situation to take up arms ever again." For his part,
Daya Master noted that the Tigers were "closely
monitoring" the situation in the south.


4. (C) There have been other signals of dissonance
about the situation in the south emerging from Tiger and
pro-Tiger elements of late. These include:

-- On January 13, the LTTE's "Peace Secretariat" website
carried a report stating that the "people's
organizations in the Jaffna Peninsula" had passed a
resolution to observe February 4 (which is Sri Lanka's
national day) as a "black day and a day of mourning."
The LTTE has sponsored this type of anti-government
protest on Sri Lanka's independence day in the past.
-- On January 11, the pro-LTTE website "TamilNet"
carried coverage of a leaflet issued in Jaffna stating
that "war would be inevitable if Sri Lankan leaders
insidiously reject the LTTE's Interim Self Governing
Authority (ISGA) proposal and if they consider this
peace period as a time to cheat." The leaflet, issued
by an organization called the "Tamil National Awareness
Movement," went on to blame President Kumaratunga and
Prime Minister Wickremesinghe for the "current impasse
in the peace process." It is not known who is
responsible for the leaflet (the "Tamil National
Awareness Movement" is not a known group),but its
distribution was almost certainly approved by the LTTE
given the group's high degree of influence in Jaffna
District.

-- Also on January 11, the local English-medium SUNDAY
LEADER newspaper carried an interview with Joseph
Pararajasingham, MP for the eastern town of Batticaloa
and senior vice-president of the pro-LTTE Tamil United
Liberation Front (TULF). Queried as to his position on
the impasse between the President and the PM,
Pararajasingham said "the country in general will suffer
immensely" if the crisis was not resolved.
Pararajasingham added that he did not see signs that
hostilities would resume "in the immediate future."
He noted, however, that the LTTE was committed "to
counter(ing) any military attack" and that there was
" a limit for tolerance, even on the part of the LTTE."

-- On January 5, senior Tiger official V. Balakumaran
(he is an adviser to V. Prabhakaran, the LTTE leader),
speaking at an event in Jaffna, said "our expectations
of resuming peace talks with the government of Sri Lanka
under a united leadership with clear authority to
command Sri Lanka's security forces are fast receding."
Turning to the political situation in the south,
Balakumaran averred that "although the majority of
Sinhala people want their politicians to unite to
resolve the debilitating political crisis, the extremist
Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) and Sihala Urumaya (SU)
will continue to impede progress towards reconciliation
among Sinhala leaders."

-- On January 4, the pro-Tiger All Ceylon Tamil Congress
(ACTC) declared at its annual convention held in the
northern city of Jaffna that "the Tamil people will have
to exercise their right to self determination and secede
if the political impasse in Colombo were to continue,"
according to a posting on the "TamilNet" website.

Some Rough Behavior by the Tigers
--------------

5. (C) Although the Tigers have basically been
restrained in their actions since the cohabitation
impasse began in November 2003, the group has been
engaging in some rough behavior on-the-ground of late.
Recent Tiger actions have included:

-- On January 6, near the eastern port city of
Trincomalee, two monitors from the Sri Lanka Monitoring
Mission (SLMM) were detained by armed LTTE cadres for
approximately four hours. The SLMM has lodged a protest
with the Tigers over the incident. SLMM spokeswoman
Agnes Bragadottir told poloff on January 12 that her
organization considered the LTTE's action "a truce
violation." She added, however, that the SLMM had not
yet issued a final ruling on the matter. On January 13,
the Tigers, via a report on TamilNet, said there was "no
truth" to the SLMM's charge that the monitors had been
detained, and that the Tigers were "shocked and
dismayed" at a SLMM statement to the media concerning
the matter. In response to the Tigers' sharp statement,
the SLMM has told us that it plans to continue to
investigate the incident.

-- Bragadottir also told poloff that the SLMM was
examining allegations that the LTTE had threatened the
life of the new Sri Lanka Army commander of Jaffna,
Major General Susil Chandrapala. If the charges are
true, Bragadottir said, the SLMM might hold that the
LTTE has violated the ceasefire.

-- On January 5, the Sri Lanka Army lodged a formal
complaint with the SLMM, charging that the Tigers had
erected a monument to fallen cadre within a government-
controlled area located in the Jaffna Peninsula. As of
January 13, the SLMM had not yet ruled on the matter and
the LTTE monument remained in place.

COMMENT
--------------

6. (C) Through their latest pronouncements, the Tigers
are pretty clearly veering away from the "charm
offensive"-mode they have been in since the latest round
of cohabitation jousting began in November 2003. They
now clearly want to underline their exasperation with
the south. At the same time, in what is clearly a
balancing act, they want to stress that they remain on
board with the peace process. (As we reported
yesterday, the LTTE has invited donors to a meeting in
Kilinochchi, a city in the Tiger-controlled Vanni region
in the north, next week -- we have declined.) Given the
Tigers' growing impatience with the cohabitation
situation, our guess is that the risks for the peace
process -- while small now -- will continue to rise the
longer the situation in Colombo remains unhinged. END
COMMENT.


7. (U) Minimize considered.

LUNSTEAD