Sri Lanka: Level of violence falls markedly

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 COLOMBO 000520

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR SA, SA/INS, DRL/CRA, INR/NESA

NSC FOR E. MILLARD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/24/14
TAGS: PGOV PINS PHUM PINR PTER CE
SUBJECT: Sri Lanka: Level of violence falls markedly
compared to past campaigns

Refs: (A) FBIS Reston Va DTG 231158Z Mar 04
- (B) Colombo 515, and previous

(U) Classified by Ambassador Jeffrey J. Lunstead.
Reasons 1.5 (b,d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: The level of campaign-related violence
in Sri Lanka has fallen markedly compared to that
recorded in the past. It is not clear why violence is
down, but the Elections Commission, the police, and
local and foreign monitors have worked hard to tamp down
the violence. That said, with just over one week to go
before the April 2 parliamentary election, violence
could still surge, and, based on past patterns, post-
election violence could be a problem, too. END SUMMARY.


2. (SBU) RELATIVELY CALM CAMPAIGN (SO FAR): The level
of campaign-related violence this election cycle has
fallen markedly compared to that recorded in the past.
(Sri Lanka holds parliamentary elections on April 2.)
Thus far, for example, there have been three killings
linked to the current campaign whereas at a similar
point in the 2001 parliamentary election campaign there
were roughly 20 killings. Of the three killings, two of
them have been linked to the Liberation Tigers of Tamil
Eelam (LTTE) and the other was apparently related to
violence between Muslim parties (see Reftels). All
three of the killings occurred in the Eastern Province.
At this point, unless there is a sudden spike in the
violence, it seems unlikely that the number of campaign-
related killings this time around will approach that of
previous campaigns. (There were over 50 killings during
the 2001 parliamentary election campaign, roughly 25 in
the 2000 parliamentary election campaign, and roughly 50
during the 1999 presidential election campaign.)


3. (SBU) Although the amount of killings has gone down
sharply, there have still been many violent incidents
related to the campaign. According to PAFFREL, a local
election monitoring group, there have been 156 incidents
of violence so far in the race. (PAFFREL stands for
"People's Alliance for Free and Fair Elections.") The
Center for Monitoring Election Violence (CMEV),another
NGO, reports that there have been over 800 cases of
violence. (CMEV uses a substantially more flexible
method of calculating violence compared with PAFFREL.
FYI: As they have in past campaigns, both CMEV and
PAFFREL are receiving funding assistance from the USG.)
Based on the PAFFREL and CMEV figures, the incidents
appear relatively evenly spread among all of the
parties, with each being accused of instigating a share
of the violence. Overall, the number of violent
incidents during this campaign is down compared to 2001,
too. In 2001, at an equivalent stage in the campaign,
for example, CMEV said there had been over 1,700 violent
incidents.


4. (C) REASONS FOR DROP-OFF UNCLEAR: The precise
reasons for the sharp drop-off in violence are unclear.
Going into the current campaign, most observers thought
it would be a very violent affair due to the deep
cohabitation tensions between President Kumaratunga and
Prime Minister Wickremesinghe, but that has not been the
case, thus far. The following reasons have been cited
to explain the situation:

-- As reviewed in Reftels, the Elections Commission (EC)
has taken an activist approach during this campaign.
The EC has required the police to enforce rules banning
election paraphernalia such as posters and banners, etc.
Most observers believe that the EC's actions have helped
lower the temperature of the campaign and thus helped
reduce violence.

-- The police have been out and about enforcing election
rules and arresting those accused of violence. In
addition, there were not many police "transfers" made
just before the campaign. (In past campaigns, police
who were favorable to the government in power were sent
to places seen as sensitive for the election. In these
positions, the transferred officers often favored the
governing party over the opposition in local disputes,
thus contributing to the general lawlessness.)

-- Local and international observers have been quite
active. PAFFREL and CMEV, for example, have wide
networks of informants and they actively report evidence
of violence to the police. In the meantime, the
European Union, the Commonwealth, and Japan, etc., have
sent in large teams of observers that are fanning out
across the country. The increased presence of local and
international observers seems to be having an impact on
the violence.

-- Another theory that has been advanced as to the
decline in the violence is that the main parties are
evenly balanced in terms of controlling levers of power
during this campaign cycle. In the campaigns of 1999,
2000, and 2001, for example, the then-People's Alliance
(PA) government was in total control. This time around,
with cohabitation between a PA president and a United
National Party prime minister, each side has influence
in the government, which prevents either side from
taking full advantage of the other.


5. (C) COMMENT: Sri Lanka is not out of the woods just
yet. There is over a week to go in the campaign and
violence could still surge in the next several days and
on election day itself. (As has been the case in the
past, the GSL is expected to enforce a curfew the night
of the election and perhaps on subsequent nights
depending on the situation.) This is especially true
because the race seems competitive among all of the
major parties at this stage. Moreover, based on past
patterns, post-election violence could be a problem as
thugs affiliated with the winning side attack the losing
side. All that said, as of this point, Sri Lanka
appears to have cleaned up its act to a large extent
compared to the all-out bloody nature of past campaigns.
END COMMENT.


6. (U) Minimize considered.

LUNSTEAD