Campaign Snapshot: Despite LTTE rift, Tamil

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 COLOMBO 000422

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR SA, SA/INS, INR/NESA, DRL/CRA; NSC FOR E.
MILLARD

PLEASE ALSO PASS TOPEC

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03-09-14
TAGS: PGOV PINS PINR PTER PHUM CE
SUBJECT: Campaign Snapshot: Despite LTTE rift, Tamil
party busy on hustings; Election violence low, so far

Refs: Colombo 406, and previous

(U) Classified by James F. Entwistle, Deputy Chief of
Mission. Reasons 1.5 (b,d).


1. (C) In this message, Mission reviews the following
items related to Sri Lanka's April 2 parliamentary
election campaign:

-- Despite LTTE split, pro-Tiger party carries on
campaign;

-- Extremist Buddhist monks launch effort;

-- Incidents of campaign-related violence on low side,
so far;

-- President's brother declares his candidacy for
presidency (well ahead of 2005 or 2006 election);

-- In our "Flavor of the Campaign" section: Strict
rules enforced on use of election posters, banners, etc.

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Pro-Tiger party continues its campaign
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2. (SBU) Despite the recent split in the Liberation
Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) organization between
northern and eastern elements (see Reftels),the Tamil
National Alliance (TNA),a pro-LTTE political grouping,
continues to campaign actively. R. Sampathan, a senior
TNA MP, for example, kicked off the TNA campaign in
Trincomalee District on March 7, and canvassing is
continuing in Jaffna. In the eastern districts of
Batticaloa and Ampara, however, TNA candidates have
reportedly had to adjust their campaigning schedules due
to tensions arising in that region due to the LTTE
split. (There have been several rallies and a work
stoppage in the east in favor of rebel LTTE commander
Karuna in the past several days -- see Reftels.) The
TNA has denied press reports that it has suspended its
Batticaloa and Ampara campaigns due to tensions in those
areas.


3. (C) COMMENT: Before the split in the LTTE emerged
last week, observers predicted that the TNA could win up
to 20-22 seats (up from 15) and perhaps hold the balance
of power in the next Parliament. At this point, that
would still seem possible, but it would appear to depend
to some extent on whether or not the rift in the LTTE
continues. Tensions, for example, are high in
Batticaloa and, if there is violence between competing
LTTE factions, that could seriously impact the Tamil
vote. Moreover, there is also the possibility that the
TNA itself could be split between elements that are in
favor of the main LTTE organization versus those that
are in favor of the Karuna faction. Such a split would
almost certainly undermine LTTE influence in Parliament.
Already, there are indications that some TNA elements
are leaning toward Karuna. END COMMENT.

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Extremist Buddhist monks launch effort
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4. (SBU) The Sinhalese extremist Janatha Hela Urumaya
(JHU) party has begun its election campaign. (The JHU
is the new name for the Sihala Urumaya, SU, party. Last
month, the JHU announced that it was fielding an all-
monk slate of candidates -- see Reftels.) On March 2,
the over 200 monks-cum-candidates for JHU kicked off
their campaign with a rally near Colombo. At the rally,
the Venerable Omalpe Sobitha, a monk and one of the key
JHU leaders, was quoted as stating: "Unity is the first
priority, federalism is rejected. There can be no
division under any circumstances." The group's election
manifesto has also been released, and it advocates
programs for "protecting Buddhism" and ending
corruption. Along the lines of Ven. Sobitha's remarks,
the manifesto was also skeptical of negotiations with
the LTTE about power-sharing for the north/east and the
Norwegian government's peace facilitation effort.


5. (C) COMMENT: The running of an all-monk slate is
unprecedented in Sri Lankan history -- and has been
controversial. As flagged in Reftels, for example, the
JHU has faced a harsh backlash from many Buddhists who
do not believe that monks should engage in politics.
That said, for a small party, the JHU seems to have
picked up some political momentum, much of it from the
novelty factor of running monks. While it is very
early, some observers even believe the party may pick up
some seats in Parliament (the SU had none in the last
Parliament). This possibility is of concern to the
alliance between the President's Sri Lanka Freedom Party
(SLFP) and the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) party,
which believes that any JHU support comes at the expense
of the SLFP-JVP vote base. END COMMENT.

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Violence on Low Side, so far
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6. (U) A report by the Center for Monitoring Election
Violence (CMEV) issued on March 8 reports 321 total
incidents of campaign-related violence since
February 17, the date when nominations for the April 2
election began. The incidents range from murder, (the
political killings of two Tamils in the East -- see
Reftels),attempted murder, to threats and intimidation.
The CMEV report notes that the percentage of what it
terms "major incidents" of violence is lower than at a
similar stage in the 2001 parliamentary election, but
terms these incidents of violence "a disturbing trend as
the campaign gains momentum." The Police Elections
Secretariat, in a separate tabulation, has also recorded

SIPDIS
approximately 300 incidents of violence in the run-up to
the election.


7. (SBU) COMMENT: Heading into this campaign there was
considerable anxiety that cohabitation tensions between
the President and the Prime Minister heralded a very
violent campaign. While the CMEV's report does indicate
that the campaign has had many instances of violence,
the report is accurate when it states that the situation
appears a bit calmer than recent Sri Lankan national
elections at this point in the campaign cycle. It is
not clear why this might be the case, although the
Election Commissioner does appear to be holding tighter
reins on the situation than in the past (see below). As
CMEV also notes, however, it is still early in the
campaign cycle, and the situation could easily flare up
in the next several weeks. END COMMENT.

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President's Brother Throws Hat into Ring
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8. (SBU) Late March 2, Anura Bandaranaike, a senior
SLFP MP and brother of President Kumaratunga, announced
that he wants to be the next SLFP presidential
candidate. Bandaranaike's announcement was an early
one: Sri Lanka's next presidential election will take
place in either late 2005 or late 2006. (The exact
timing of the election depends on how a complicated
dispute concerning the length of President Kumaratunga's
term is settled -- see Reftels.) In a lengthy interview
with the English-language DAILY MIRROR newspaper
published on March 3, Bandaranaike also stated that he
would be "the last of the Bandaranaikes to be in
politics and the dynasty will end with me." He also
characterized himself "a ruthlessly honest politician."


9. (C) COMMENT: Bandaranaike, 55, would seem to be a
leading contender for the SLFP nomination. First, he is
the brother of the President, and both his parents were
SLFP prime ministers, which counts for a lot in the SLFP
(his father founded the party). He has huge political
problems, however. While affable, he is not considered
a serious thinker and some even consider him a bit of a
buffoon. It is also not clear whether he has the
support of his sister, who is thought to distrust him
for defecting from the SLFP years ago (he returned to
the party fold in 2001). In throwing his hat into the
ring, Bandaranaike also has a major rival: senior SLFP
MP and former Opposition Leader Mahinda Rajapakse is
thought to maintain considerable grassroots support in
the SLFP. END COMMENT.

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Campaign Posters and Banners: Banned
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10. (U) In our "Flavor of the Campaign" section: The
Election Commissioner's Office has issued an order
banning campaign posters, banners, cutouts and other
public displays related to the election, as well as the
use of motorcades and other processions without prior
permission. The Commissioner's office also ordered the
police to enforce the ban in a strict manner (the police
have received a special allocation of Rs. 8.2 million --
about USD 82,000 -- to do this). By all accounts, the
ban has been quite successful: Although there are
posters and banners up in some spots in the country,
there is much less than in previous campaigns. Colombo,
for example, has much less election-related
paraphernalia in evidence than during the December 2001
parliamentary election campaign. A poster featuring a
picture of Prime Minister Wickremesinghe and President
Bush was put up near a prominent Colombo roundabout and
removed two days later, for example.


11. (SBU) COMMENT: In issuing the order, the Election
Commissioner's office was enforcing a long-standing law
banning campaign posters, banners, etc. The law was
meant to forestall lavish expenditures by candidates and
parties, and, in general, reduce the clutter and
resulting litter. While admirable in its intent, the
relatively strict enforcement of the law has taken some
of the flavor (and fun) out of the campaign. In most of
Colombo, for example, it is hard to know that a campaign
is going on at all. One decided positive, however, is
that enforcement of the law may be helping lower
temperatures and thus reduce campaign violence. END
COMMENT.


12. (U) Minimize considered.

LUNSTEAD