Sri Lanka's election process

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 COLOMBO 000241

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR SA, SA/INS, INR/NESA, DRL

NSC FOR E. MILLARD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/11/14
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PINS PINR CE
SUBJECT: Sri Lanka's election process

Refs: Colombo 226, and previous

(U) Classified by Ambassador Jeffrey J. Lunstead.
Reasons 1.5 (b,d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: In light of President Kumaratunga's
calling of early parliamentary elections to take place
on April 2, Mission has put together the following
primer on Sri Lanka's election process. Flagging the
many idiosyncrasies of the process, the primer focuses
on four key areas: the nomination process; the
campaign itself; election day; and the post-election
timeframe. END SUMMARY.

======================
The Nomination Process
======================


2. (SBU) In light of President Chandrika Bandaranaike
Kumaratunga's calling of early parliamentary elections
to take place on April 2, Mission has put together the
following primer on Sri Lanka's election process. The
first key aspect of the process involves confirming
nominations for the ballot. The President has set
February 17-24 for nominations to be made. During this
timeframe, parties submit their official list of
nominees who will be running in the election to the
office of the Elections Commissioner and to the
requisite local government agent in each of Sri Lanka's
22 electoral districts.


3. (SBU) The tricky part of this process actually comes
before the actual nominations are submitted, however.
In this pre-nomination period, the parties work
furiously to confirm and solidify alliances, so that
they can run joint campaigns, and appear on the ballot
under one symbol and one coalition name. The governing
United National Party (UNP),for example, is negotiating
with the Sri Lanka Muslim Congress (SLMC) on whether the
SLMC remains willing to contest under the "United
National Front" (UNF) banner that was used during the
last elections which took place in December 2001. At
the same time, President Kumaratunga's Sri Lanka Freedom
Party (SLFP) is working with the radical Janatha
Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) to develop their joint
nomination lists. The SLFP and the JVP recently
concluded an electoral alliance called the "United
People's Freedom Alliance" (UPFA),and seem set to put
together a joint nomination plank shortly. They will
likely be joined by some small political parties,
particularly some of the anti-Liberation Tigers of Tamil
Eelam (LTTE) Tamil parties. (Note: The President's
long-standing coalition grouping, the People's Alliance,
will not be on the ballot this election, from what
Mission understands.)

============
The Campaign
============


4. (C) Sri Lankan election campaigns are an "anything
goes" type of affair usually involving much violence.
The Elections Commissioner's Office monitors the
campaign to ensure that it is free and fair. This
office, however, is not considered to be very effective
and in the past has been subject to political influence.
In a change, current Commissioner Dayanda Dissanayake is
relatively impartial, but -- sticking with the tradition
of his office -- he is not considered effective. He was
close to President Kumaratunga, but he reportedly became
upset at her when she played a role in a court-ordered
injunction preventing him from retiring until an
independent Elections Commission starts operating (i.e.,
Dissanayake is essentially being forced to remain in a
job he no longer wants to be part of!). (Note: FYI:
In a bid to improve governance, Parliament passed a bill
in 2001 establishing an independent Elections
Commission, among several other independent bodies. The
commission, however, has not yet been formed in large
part because the President has refused to confirm the
Constitutional Commission's choice to head the Election
Commission.) There are no campaign funding restrictions
in place in Sri Lanka and parties can spend as much as
they raise. If there are accusations of bribery, the
Elections Commissioner can step in.


5. (SBU) With respect to violence, over 50 people were
killed in the December 2001 parliamentary campaign, over
25 in the October 2000 parliamentary elections, and
almost 50 in the December 1999 presidential election
campaign. In general, Sri Lankan police are extremely
ineffective in stopping the violence and apprehending
those responsible. That said, there were some arrests
for violence committed during the last elections,
including that of Senior SLFP MP Anuruddha Ratwatte, a
relative of Kumaratunga's, who is currently on trial for
the killings of 10 Muslims on election day, December 5,

2001.


6. (U) Sri Lanka allows local organizations to
"monitor" election campaigns and ballot counting.
Foreign organizations are also allowed to "observe" the
elections. The Commonwealth and the European Union sent
large teams to observe the December 2001 elections.

============
Election Day
============


7. (SBU) Parliamentary elections will be held from 7 AM
to 4 PM on Friday, April 2. On each ballot, the voter
must first select the party of his or her choice, then
indicate a "preference" for three individual candidates.
There are three ways a candidate can win a seat in
Parliament:

-- Under Sri Lanka's complex, almost byzantine
proportional representation (PR) system, each party is
allocated a certain number of seats based on the total
number of votes it receives in an electoral district.
Based on the voters' "preferences," candidates are then
rank ordered by the parties and, if they meet the cut of
how many seats that party has won in the district, they
win a seat in Parliament.

-- In addition to the PR seats, in each of Sri Lanka's
22 electoral districts, the party that receives the most
votes is allotted at least one bonus seat. Combined,
the PR seats and the bonus seats fill 196 seats in the
225-member Parliament.

-- The remaining 29 seats are filled from the "National
List," which is determined, proportionally, by the
national percentage of votes that each party wins. For
example, if the UNP wins 60 percent of the votes
nationally, it will be allocated 17 seats -- 60 percent
of 29 National List seats. Each party contesting
elections must submit a 29-candidate National List to
the Election Commissioner during the February 17-24
nomination period. The exact allotment of National List
seats per party is finalized in the days immediately
following the elections.


8. (SBU) Aside from the high-level of violence that
afflicts the country on election day, another serious
problem almost always crops up. This concerns voters
(invariably Tamils) from areas controlled by the LTTE,
who must travel, sometimes long distances, to vote at
polling sites in government-controlled areas. In the
past, it has often been difficult for these voters to
cast their ballots. During the December 2001
parliamentary elections, for example, the Sri Lankan
military, on the orders of President Kumaratunga's then-
government, prevented thousands of Tamil voters from
entering government-controlled regions on suspicion that
the LTTE was planning a terrorist attack. The Sri
Lankan Supreme Court in 2003 ruled the GSL's actions a
violation of the fundamental rights of those affected,
and fined the government and cited several officials.
Elections Commissioner Dissanayake, one of those cited
by the Supreme Court, has promised that there will not
be a repetition of what happened in December 2001 during
this election.

9. (U) Turnout usually is quite high in Sri Lankan
elections, hovering at about 70 percent. Given that the
April 2004 elections will be the fourth national
election in less than five years (and the fact that the
calling of elections at this time may well not be a
popular decision),turnout could possibly be lower this
time around. (Note: There are an estimated 13.8
million voters in Sri Lanka, including over 400,000
additional voters on the rolls this time around.)

===========================
The Post-Election Timeframe
===========================


10. (SBU) Due to the hand counting of ballots, spread
over hundreds of village-level precincts, the tallies
from the April 2 election -- based on past experience --
will slowly trickle in. Results, which will only be
clear a day or two following election day, are then
certified by the Elections Commissioner. If a party or
coalition of parties has a clear majority, a government
could quickly be formed, and a list of ministers --
including a Prime Minister -- sworn in by the President.


11. (C) There are several existing coalitions that
could emerge with a clear majority after April 2. If
the SLFP-JVP alliance wins the majority vote, then -- as
noted above -- the process of swearing-in ministers
should be fairly easy as the President will immediately
accept the alliance's government. If the UNP and its
coalition, however, again wins the majority as it did in
December 2001, the process could be more tricky. After
the December 2001 parliamentary elections, for example,
President Kumaratunga reserved the right to reject the
UNF's slate of ministers in toto, or at least some of
them. She did not reject any in the end. If the UNP
wins on April 2, there is a very real chance that the
President may reject some of its ministerial choices
this time around given cohabitation tensions. In any
case, Parliament is scheduled to convene on April 23.
If there is a "hung" Parliament with no party forming
the majority, the impasse could continue for weeks as
parties try to come to terms with each other in order to
form a sustainable government.


12. (U) Minimize considered.

LUNSTEAD