SRI LANKA: OPPOSITION LAMENTS PRESIDENT'S

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 COLOMBO 001936

SIPDIS

STATE FOR SA/INS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/01/2014
TAGS: PGOV CE LTTE
SUBJECT: SRI LANKA: OPPOSITION LAMENTS PRESIDENT'S
"PARTISAN" TACK, JVP EFFORTS TO UNDERMINE THE PEACE PROCESS

REF: A. STATE 25478 (NOTAL)


B. COLOMBO 1919

Classified By: DCM JAMES F. ENTWISTLE. REASON: 1.4 (B,D).

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SUMMARY
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1. (C) In a December 1 meeting with the DCM, Opposition
Leader and former Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe denied
making remarks attributed to him in the local press
withdrawing support from President Chandrika Kumaratunga's
efforts to resume negotiations with the Liberation Tigers of
Tamil Eelam (LTTE). Averring that his United National Party
(UNP) remains committed to reviving talks based on the
principles outlined in the Oslo and Tokyo declarations,
Wickremesinghe charged that the President's main priority is
advancing her personal political career--rather than the
peace process. Wickremesinghe advisor and UNP MP Milinda
Moragoda expressed concern that the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna
(JVP)--and the President, by not reining in her coalition
partner--are "playing a dangerous game" by inciting unrest in
the ethnically diverse East and animosity toward Norwegian
facilitators and Nordic truce monitors in the Sinhalese
south. Both Wickremesinghe and Moragoda asked that the U.S.
urge President Kumaratunga to restrain the JVP and not to
politicize the peace process. DCM noted that an as-yet
unscheduled meeting between the co-chairs and either the
President or the Foreign Minister could provide an
opportunity to do so. He also told the UNP leaders that it
is difficult for outsiders to understand why the two centrist
Sinhalese parties cannot take a bipartisan approach to the
peace process. It is a bit disingenuous for the Opposition
Leader--one of whose closest advisors he lured from
Chandrika's inner circle--to claim the moral high ground on
non-partisan politics. At the same time, however, we agree
that the JVP's Tiger-baiting and increasingly shrill
Norwegian-bashing are unwelcome developments that invite
dangerous implications. End summary.

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PRESIDENTIAL MP-POACHING:
"PLAYING POLITICS WITH THE PEACE PROCESS"
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2. (C) In a December 1 meeting with the DCM and poloff
(notetaker),Opposition Leader and former Prime Minister
Ranil Wickremesinghe complained that partisan politics and
preoccupation with her political future, rather than the
peace process, have become President Chandrika Kumaratunga's
priority. To abolish the executive presidency (in favor of
an executive premiership which, presumably, she could
occupy),the President "is going down the road to a
constituent assembly," Wickremesinghe lamented--a potentially
dangerous step that the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam
(LTTE) could manipulate to win endorsement of its
controversial proposal for an interim administration. (Note:
A more detailed discussion of the various routes,
constitutional and otherwise, that the President might use to
extend her tenure as head of government follows septel. End
note.) Referring to the November 18 defection of United
National Party (UNP) MP Rohitha Bogollagama to the Government
(just in time for the budget vote),Wickremesinghe charged
that Kumaratunga continues to try to lure his party stalwarts
to cross the aisle. Most objectionable, he continued, was
the President's attempt to justify her blatant MP-poaching on
the basis of the peace process. "She is playing politics
with the peace process," the UNP leader charged.


3. (C) Wickremesinghe said that Kumaratunga's flagrant
politicking makes him question whether she is genuinely
interested in a bipartisan approach to the peace process.
Denying comments attributed to him in the local press over
the weekend withdrawing his support from Government efforts
in the peace process, he reiterated that the UNP remains
committed to negotiations based on the principles outlined
in the Oslo and Tokyo declarations. Wickremesinghe said,
however, that he wants an unequivocal statement from the
President that she is truly interested in a bipartisan
approach before he will make an unequivocal statement of
support for her efforts in the peace process. The UNP has
already communicated that request to her, he indicated, but
she has yet to respond. The DCM replied that bipartisan
support for the peace process is the best way to put pressure
on the Tigers to resume talks and urged the Opposition Leader
to follow that path, rather than seeking reasons to withdraw
support from the President's efforts. It is difficult for
outsiders to understand why the UNP and the President's Sri
Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP),largely similar in substance,
cannot cooperate on peace, the DCM said. He told
Wickremesinge and UNP MP Milinda Moragoda, who also
participated in the meeting, that the co-chairs were trying
to help find a way to revive the stalled peace process and
warned that international interest in Sri Lanka may flag if
the impasse continues.

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JVP HIJACKING PROCESS
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4. (C) Wickremesinghe said that the President's dependence
upon the Sinhalese nationalist Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna
(JVP),her largest coalition partner, limits her ability to
accept the Tiger demand that its proposed Interim
Self-Governing Authority (ISGA) form the basis of resumed
negotiations. "She needs the JVP to get the constituent
assembly" and prolong her hold on power, he said, reiterating
accusations that the President's concern for her political
career trumps her interest in advancing the peace process.
Moragoda predicted that the JVP will stay in the coalition
"as long as they can rattle the (Tigers') cage" and pander to
the Sinhalese south with bellicose, hardline statements about
refusing to accept the ISGA. "If she goes for talks, the JVP
will lose their base" in the Sinhalese south, Moragoda said.
While issuing provocative statements, leading anti-Tiger
demonstrations in the East and putting pressure on the
Norwegian facilitators may help the JVP portray itself as the
champions of Sinhalese interests, Moragoda observed, the
former Marxist insurgents are "playing a dangerous game,"
with Tiger leader Prabhakaran as the most lethal wild card in
the deck. "An insecure Prabhakaran is far more dangerous
than a secure Prabhakaran," Moragoda noted; whether the JVP's
Tiger-baiting is enough to tip the balance remains to be seen.


5. (C) The JVP is also trying to whip up sentiment against
the peace process and Norwegian facilitators among the
Jathika Hela Urumaya (JHU),whose representation in
Parliament is composed entirely of Buddhist monks from the
Sinhalese majority, Wickremesinghe warned. Mainstream
parties (like the UNP and the SLFP) are finding it
increasingly difficult to keep the JVP at bay, Moragoda
observed, leaving extreme elements (like the JVP and the
LTTE) free to muddy the playing field and advance their own
agendas. Wickremesinghe urged the co-chairs to "encourage"
the President to promote bipartisan support for the peace
process and to restrain the JVP's provocative posturing. The
President should be encouraged to recognize that her legacy
will rest on her success in guiding the peace process, rather
than in extending her term in power indefinitely, Moragoda
said, and re-order her priorities accordingly.

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COMMENT
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6. (C) It is more than a little disingenuous for
Wickremesinghe to cry foul over Kumaratunga trying to pick
off his MPs--especially since Wickremesinghe himself counts
erstwhile SLFP MP and Kumaratunga ally G.L. Peiris among his
closest confidants and most eloquent Kumaratunga critics.
Nonetheless, the President's continued efforts to increase
her tally of reliable votes in Parliament suggest that she is
positioning herself to win a vote to abolish the term-limited
executive presidency--a move that hypothetically could land
her the post of prime minister and extend her tenure as head
of government. Relegating the peace process to the back
burner while plotting this strategy would obviously be an
unwelcome development. Even more undesirable--and
potentially more dangerous--is the President's apparent
inclination to allow the JVP free rein to go toe-to-toe with
the Tigers in the East and to bash the Norwegians in Colombo
and the Sinhalese south. We will stress these concerns to
the Government in the as-yet unscheduled co-chairs meeting
and urge the President to reassure the Opposition of her
commitment to a bipartisan approach to the peace process. At
the same time, we will continue to tell the UNP leadership,
which also clearly puts politics before the peace process,
that the path of bipartisanship is the only way forward.

LUNSTEAD