SRI LANKA: OPPOSITION LAMENTS PRESIDENT'S

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 COLOMBO 001936 SIPDIS STATE FOR SA/INS E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/01/2014 TAGS: PGOV CE LTTE SUBJECT: SRI LANKA: OPPOSITION LAMENTS PRESIDENT'S "PARTISAN" TACK, JVP EFFORTS TO UNDERMINE THE PEACE PROCESS REF: A. STATE 25478 (NOTAL) ¶B. COLOMBO 1919 Classified By: DCM JAMES F. ENTWISTLE. REASON: 1.4 (B,D). -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) In a December 1 meeting with the DCM, Opposition Leader and former Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe denied making remarks attributed to him in the local press withdrawing support from President Chandrika Kumaratunga's efforts to resume negotiations with the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE). Averring that his United National Party (UNP) remains committed to reviving talks based on the principles outlined in the Oslo and Tokyo declarations, Wickremesinghe charged that the President's main priority is advancing her personal political career--rather than the peace process. Wickremesinghe advisor and UNP MP Milinda Moragoda expressed concern that the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP)--and the President, by not reining in her coalition partner--are "playing a dangerous game" by inciting unrest in the ethnically diverse East and animosity toward Norwegian facilitators and Nordic truce monitors in the Sinhalese south. Both Wickremesinghe and Moragoda asked that the U.S. urge President Kumaratunga to restrain the JVP and not to politicize the peace process. DCM noted that an as-yet unscheduled meeting between the co-chairs and either the President or the Foreign Minister could provide an opportunity to do so. He also told the UNP leaders that it is difficult for outsiders to understand why the two centrist Sinhalese parties cannot take a bipartisan approach to the peace process. It is a bit disingenuous for the Opposition Leader--one of whose closest advisors he lured from Chandrika's inner circle--to claim the moral high ground on non-partisan politics. At the same time, however, we agree that the JVP's Tiger-baiting and increasingly shrill Norwegian-bashing are unwelcome developments that invite dangerous implications. End summary. -------------- PRESIDENTIAL MP-POACHING: "PLAYING POLITICS WITH THE PEACE PROCESS" -------------- ¶2. (C) In a December 1 meeting with the DCM and poloff (notetaker),Opposition Leader and former Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe complained that partisan politics and preoccupation with her political future, rather than the peace process, have become President Chandrika Kumaratunga's priority. To abolish the executive presidency (in favor of an executive premiership which, presumably, she could occupy),the President "is going down the road to a constituent assembly," Wickremesinghe lamented--a potentially dangerous step that the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) could manipulate to win endorsement of its controversial proposal for an interim administration. (Note: A more detailed discussion of the various routes, constitutional and otherwise, that the President might use to extend her tenure as head of government follows septel. End note.) Referring to the November 18 defection of United National Party (UNP) MP Rohitha Bogollagama to the Government (just in time for the budget vote),Wickremesinghe charged that Kumaratunga continues to try to lure his party stalwarts to cross the aisle. Most objectionable, he continued, was the President's attempt to justify her blatant MP-poaching on the basis of the peace process. "She is playing politics with the peace process," the UNP leader charged. ¶3. (C) Wickremesinghe said that Kumaratunga's flagrant politicking makes him question whether she is genuinely interested in a bipartisan approach to the peace process. Denying comments attributed to him in the local press over the weekend withdrawing his support from Government efforts in the peace process, he reiterated that the UNP remains committed to negotiations based on the principles outlined in the Oslo and Tokyo declarations. Wickremesinghe said, however, that he wants an unequivocal statement from the President that she is truly interested in a bipartisan approach before he will make an unequivocal statement of support for her efforts in the peace process. The UNP has already communicated that request to her, he indicated, but she has yet to respond. The DCM replied that bipartisan support for the peace process is the best way to put pressure on the Tigers to resume talks and urged the Opposition Leader to follow that path, rather than seeking reasons to withdraw support from the President's efforts. It is difficult for outsiders to understand why the UNP and the President's Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP),largely similar in substance, cannot cooperate on peace, the DCM said. He told Wickremesinge and UNP MP Milinda Moragoda, who also participated in the meeting, that the co-chairs were trying to help find a way to revive the stalled peace process and warned that international interest in Sri Lanka may flag if the impasse continues. -------------- JVP HIJACKING PROCESS -------------- ¶4. (C) Wickremesinghe said that the President's dependence upon the Sinhalese nationalist Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP),her largest coalition partner, limits her ability to accept the Tiger demand that its proposed Interim Self-Governing Authority (ISGA) form the basis of resumed negotiations. "She needs the JVP to get the constituent assembly" and prolong her hold on power, he said, reiterating accusations that the President's concern for her political career trumps her interest in advancing the peace process. Moragoda predicted that the JVP will stay in the coalition "as long as they can rattle the (Tigers') cage" and pander to the Sinhalese south with bellicose, hardline statements about refusing to accept the ISGA. "If she goes for talks, the JVP will lose their base" in the Sinhalese south, Moragoda said. While issuing provocative statements, leading anti-Tiger demonstrations in the East and putting pressure on the Norwegian facilitators may help the JVP portray itself as the champions of Sinhalese interests, Moragoda observed, the former Marxist insurgents are "playing a dangerous game," with Tiger leader Prabhakaran as the most lethal wild card in the deck. "An insecure Prabhakaran is far more dangerous than a secure Prabhakaran," Moragoda noted; whether the JVP's Tiger-baiting is enough to tip the balance remains to be seen. ¶5. (C) The JVP is also trying to whip up sentiment against the peace process and Norwegian facilitators among the Jathika Hela Urumaya (JHU),whose representation in Parliament is composed entirely of Buddhist monks from the Sinhalese majority, Wickremesinghe warned. Mainstream parties (like the UNP and the SLFP) are finding it increasingly difficult to keep the JVP at bay, Moragoda observed, leaving extreme elements (like the JVP and the LTTE) free to muddy the playing field and advance their own agendas. Wickremesinghe urged the co-chairs to "encourage" the President to promote bipartisan support for the peace process and to restrain the JVP's provocative posturing. The President should be encouraged to recognize that her legacy will rest on her success in guiding the peace process, rather than in extending her term in power indefinitely, Moragoda said, and re-order her priorities accordingly. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶6. (C) It is more than a little disingenuous for Wickremesinghe to cry foul over Kumaratunga trying to pick off his MPs--especially since Wickremesinghe himself counts erstwhile SLFP MP and Kumaratunga ally G.L. Peiris among his closest confidants and most eloquent Kumaratunga critics. Nonetheless, the President's continued efforts to increase her tally of reliable votes in Parliament suggest that she is positioning herself to win a vote to abolish the term-limited executive presidency--a move that hypothetically could land her the post of prime minister and extend her tenure as head of government. Relegating the peace process to the back burner while plotting this strategy would obviously be an unwelcome development. Even more undesirable--and potentially more dangerous--is the President's apparent inclination to allow the JVP free rein to go toe-to-toe with the Tigers in the East and to bash the Norwegians in Colombo and the Sinhalese south. We will stress these concerns to the Government in the as-yet unscheduled co-chairs meeting and urge the President to reassure the Opposition of her commitment to a bipartisan approach to the peace process. At the same time, we will continue to tell the UNP leadership, which also clearly puts politics before the peace process, that the path of bipartisanship is the only way forward. LUNSTEAD