MALDIVES: ELECTION NEARS AS LEGAL PROCESS FROM

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 COLOMBO 001878

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR SA/INS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/19/2014
TAGS: PGOV PHUM MV
SUBJECT: MALDIVES: ELECTION NEARS AS LEGAL PROCESS FROM
AUGUST EVENTS DRAGS ON

REF: COLOMBO 1832 AND PREVIOUS

Classified By: James F. Entwistle, Deputy Chief of Mission. Reason 1.4
(b,d).


1. (C) Summary: The Maldivian government is slowly
returning to work following the Ramadan Eid-al-Fitr holiday.
Prison detainees are no longer on a hunger strike and
approximately 21 people remain detained or under house arrest
in connection with the August 12-13 civil unrest. Nine
people have been formally charged, but no substantive charges
have yet to be filed. The Government Spokesman contends more
charges will be filed in the "next few weeks." Not all MPs
detained or under house arrest, such as Ibrahim Zaki, were
able to file candidate papers to stand in the December 31
parliamentary elections. A readout follows of the
Commonwealth Secretariat October 26-27 visit to Maldives.
The slow government process regarding those under
investigation for the August events may begin to provoke
people as the Special Majlis commences substantive
discussions and the election period nears -- without those
MPs still barred from participating. End Summary.


2. (C) NO HUNGER STRIKE: With the end of the Ramadan
festival of Eid-al-Fitr and only two work days before the
Friday-Saturday "weekend," most Government of Maldives (GORM)
officials are still on holiday. Through speaking with
various interlocutors, there are differing accounts of the
status of detainees and those under house arrest. In a
November 19 conversation, Chief Government Spokesman Dr.
Ahmed Shaheed said that no detainees remained on a hunger
strike; of the 12 or so who had begun the protest on November
4, was still note eating by November 8. Supporting Shaheed's
comments, Human Rights Commission Chair Ahmed Mujuthaba had
told poloff that only one detainee remained on the hunger
strike during a November 9 visit by the Commission.


3. (C) CHARGES STILL PENDING: Shaheed did not have absolute
figures on the number of detainees, but estimated that
approximately 21 people were either detained or still under
house arrest and the investigative stage of the government's
case is almost complete. To date, he said, nine people
(including one MP) have been charged in connection with the
August 12-13 civil unrest. (Note: The formal charges
already filed are all on par with unlawful assembly and
disturbing the peace violations. None of the substantive
charges, which are expected, has yet to be presented and GORM
interlocutors continually anticipate them in the "next few
weeks" in every conversation with emboffs. End note.)
Shaheed noted that two of the MPs under investigation --
detained or under house arrest -- filed candidate nomination
papers by the November 15 deadline for the December 31 Majlis
(Parliament) elections. Mohamed Nasheed, from the opposition
Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP),told poloff on November 19,
however, that despite government assertions that those under
investigation could stand for the election, some of those
under house arrest were unable to submit their paperwork
before the deadline.


4. (C) UNDER HOUSE ARREST: In an example of the limbo that
some of those associated with the August 12-13 events are
still facing, Ibrahim Zaki, a Special Majlis MP and former
SAARC Secretary-General, remains under house arrest with no
charges filed. Zaki had been placed in solitary confinement
by GORM officials upon his arrest and was only released to
house arrest in mid-October. He has remained there and MDP
contacts state that he has been unable to attend sessions of
the Special Majlis and allege that he was prevented from
filing candidate papers for the December 31 parliamentary
elections.


5. (SBU) READOUT OF COMMONWEALTH SECRETARIAT VISIT: An
Australian High Commission official met with members of
Commonwealth Secretary General Don McKinnon's team that
traveled to Maldives for an October 26-27 visit and meeting
with President Gayoom. Following is the text provided to
poloff of the Australian emboff's readout of the visit.

Begin Text:

ComSec (Commonwealth Secretariat) has been seeking an
opportunity for some time to engage the Maldives, more
especially since the detentions of opposition figures in
August. The SG's visit (October 26-27) provided an
opportunity to do this. McKinnon had already approached
President Gayoom at the NAM Summit in Kuala Lumpur, and had
written to him subsequently, but had received no reply. The
chance to visit was therefore very welcome. McKinnon had met
with the President, the Foreign Minister (Hameed),the
Speaker of the House (Jameel),and the Chair of the Human
Rights Commission of the Maldives (Mujuthaba). (U.S. Embassy
note: the author has switched the names of the Foreign
Minister and Speaker of the Majlis. End note.) He had also
met with some of the political detainees. After McKinnon's
departure ComSec Special Adviser Syed Sharfuddin stayed on
for a week for further discussions, and Sharfuddin provided
us with the bulk of the debrief.

McKinnon had gone with several messages for the Government:
that it was important for dialogue to continue on
constitutional change, and that the process should be
transparent and inclusive - i.e. that the voice of the
detainees and other political opponents of the government
should be heard, and that they should be able to stand in the
forthcoming elections. Detainees need to be brought before
the courts quickly, and the charges against them made known.
While McKinnon recognized that a number had been released,
and others had moved from detention to house arrest, there
were still several important figures unable to participate in
the political process, notably Ibrahim Zaki (a former Foreign
Minister),Dr. Mohamed Munavvar (former Attorney-General) and
Qasim Ibrahim (a businessman),all of whom have been accused
of providing contacts or financial support to the opposition
MDP.

Sharfuddin noted that the Government argued that much of the
reason for the disaffection of the detainees was sour grapes
- that as former members of the elite they had seen no reason
to change the system, and that it was only now that they were
out of favour that they had begun to agitate for change.
Sharfuddin believed that there was an element of truth to
this, and had also observed a broad divide between family and
in-laws of the President, but in reality that was beside the
point - the issue for the Commonwealth is not the sources of
political opposition, but that opposition is handled
properly. Sharfuddin noted that the Government was worried
about the effect that instability would have on the tourism
industry, and, although this had not been raised with him or
McKinnon directly this trip, also worried about radical
Islamic linkages with the opposition.

ComSec's judgment, however, is that the MDP remains a middle
class part of opposition, highly unlikely to be linked to
Islamic radicals. The real danger for the Maldives lies in
the underclasses who do not have a voice, and who are
beginning to coalesce around other opposition figures, such
as Sheikh Fareed (although there is no evidence to suggest
that he has any links with Islamic terrorism).

Sharfuddin was told by the Attorney-General that detainees
would be allowed to stand in the December elections. The
closing date for nominations was November 15, and even if
detainees were subsequently convicted they would still be
eligible to stand. Dr. Munavvar argued, however, that being
technically allowed to nominate was one thing, but being
prevented from leaving his house to do so made it practically
impossible. Sharfuddin made this point to the
Attorney-General, who undertook to make it possible for
detainees to use lawyers to act on their behalf. Sharfuddin
also noted that the Speaker of the Parliament had made it
possible for some detainees to attend parliamentary sessions,
but that he had no authority over the sessions of the Special
Majlis, which remained closed to them.

The main outcome from ComSec's new engagement with the
Maldives was an invitation from the Government for the
Commonwealth to send an observer mission to the December
elections. The Secretariat is also currently conducting a
needs based assessment of the Maldives, including judicial
reform of the Attorney General's office, election and
administrative reform. In order to avoid any overlap with
other agencies (as it seems that the Maldivians have accepted
numerous offers of assistance for development and reform
following the political incidents of August),the Secretariat
is looking at placing a Coordinator in the Maldivian
infrastructure, working in much the same way as a
Commonwealth Special Envoy would, to create the institutions
to support a multi-party state, a neutral civil service and a
reformed criminal justice system. McKinnon believes that
such a coordinator, an eminent Commonwealth citizen who could
report to both the SG and the President, would be able to
pull the threads of reform together. This plan has yet to be
approved by President Gayoom, however. Neuhaus informed us
that the Secretariat has approached the Australian Electoral
Commission to participate in the Commonwealth observer group
for the December elections, and - despite the date (December
31) - had received an initially favourable response.

End Text.


6. (C) COMMENT: The slow government process regarding those
under investigation for the August events may begin to
provoke people as the Special Majlis commences substantive
discussions and the election period nears -- without those
MPs still barred from participating. The comments from the
Commonwealth Secretariat largely track with our
interpretation of the situation in Maldives. The GORM has a
looming challenge to carry out a fair election that includes
all those who want to participate, without using the legal
process associated with the August events as an excuse to
avoid a real contest for power in the government. End
Comment.

LUNSTEAD