SRI LANKA: OPPOSITION IN NO RUSH TO JOIN PROPOSED COUNCIL ON PEACE TALKS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 COLOMBO 001521



SIPDIS



STATE FOR SA/INS



E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/13/2014

TAGS: PGOV, CE, LTTE - Peace Process, Political Parties

SUBJECT: SRI LANKA: OPPOSITION IN NO RUSH TO JOIN PROPOSED

COUNCIL ON PEACE TALKS





Classified By: AMB. JEFFREY J. LUNSTEAD. REASON: 1.4 (B,D).



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SUMMARY

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1. (C) In a September 14 meeting with the Ambassador,

Opposition Leader Ranil Wickremesinghe indicated that his

United National Party (UNP) is in no hurry to accept

President Kumaratunga's invitation to join a multi-partisan

advisory council on possible peace talks with the Liberation

Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE). The President realizes she

cannot "rein in" the radical chauvinist Janatha Vimukti

Peramuna (JVP) and has no fallback strategy to restart talks,

he charged. While the UNP will support any proposal that

will advance prospects for peace, Wickremesinghe suggested,

his party will insist that the President first get

tendentious members of her own house--especially the JVP--in

order before asking the Opposition to do the heavy lifting on

the peace process. End summary.



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UNP BIDING TIME ON PROPOSED ADVISORY COUNCIL

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2. (C) In a September 14 meeting with the Ambassador,

Opposition Leader (and former Prime Minister) Ranil

Wickremesinghe confirmed that President Chandrika Kumaratunga

had invited his United National Party (UNP) to participate in

a proposed multi-partisan council to advise the Government of

Sri Lanka (GSL) on the peace process. Wickremesinghe said

that he told the President that UNP participation would

depend on how the council is structured. Wickremesinghe sees

it as a forum where the parties would simply present their

views, not debate them or seek consensus. If instead the

council functions as a public debating forum or an all-party

conference, it could end up hindering, instead of helping,

the peace process, he suggested. Moreover, members should

have the option of communicating views to the GSL in private.

The President reportedly told the Opposition Leader that the

GSL would forward a formal proposal for the council for UNP

review.



3. (C) Formation of an advisory council should follow,

rather than precede, the first round of resumed talks,

Wickremesinghe said. He suggested that the effort expended

by the President to form an advisory council on as-yet

unscheduled talks would be better directed at actually

getting consensus to restart negotiations. To do so,

however, the President knows that she will have to get the

agreement of left-wing nationalist coalition partner Janatha

Vimukti Peramuna (JVP),which, in Wickremesinghe's

estimation, she cannot do. With her efforts to "rein in" the

JVP unsuccessful so far, she is attempting, through the

proposed Advisory Council, to get other parties to take

public positions on controversial topics like an interim

administration for the north and east, he charged. While the

UNP will support any interim arrangement that meets the

criteria of the Tokyo Declaration, the party is unwilling to

make public that support unless the JVP, which continues to

criticize the UNP for being "soft" on the Tigers, also gets

on board. "The President can't have her cake and eat it

too," he concluded.



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UNP COUNTER-CAMPAIGN

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4. (C) Given current unfavorable political dynamics, the

visit of Norwegian Special Envoy Solheim is likely to do

little to advance the peace process, he predicted. (Note:

Solheim arrives in Colombo September 14. End note.)

Wickremesinghe believes Kumaratunga did not bargain on being

saddled with contentious coalition partners like the JVP--she

was banking on either gaining a solid majority or remaining

in the Opposition--and has thus not developed a fallback

strategy on how to restart negotiations under these

precarious conditions. "I couldn't carry forward the peace

process with a coalition," he observed. Lacking the votes to

carry her constituent assembly proposal forward and with the

economy turning sour, Kumaratunga's government will likely

"muddle along for some time." Current UNP strategy is

focusing on a campaign to put pressure on the the President

to resume talks, he said, adding that the full-court press

will likely begin around December or January when the full

effects of expected price increases will kick in and the

government will be most vulnerable.



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COMMENT

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5. (C) A multipartisan council to advise the GSL on the

peace process is a good idea in principle. As long as the

President remains unable to count on the JVP, her largest

coalition partner, however, it is a bit unrealistic to expect

the Opposition to support it. Wickremesinghe's UNP clearly

expects to profit politically from the President's

predicament. By advancing the proposal, the GSL may have

been hoping to create the illusion of progress toward

negotiations. If so, that plan may backfire, with the lack

of multipartisan support the proposal has attracted so far

instead highlighting the lack of movement and consensus on

the peace process.

LUNSTEAD