SRI LANKA: HILL TAMIL PARTY GIVES GOVERNMENT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 COLOMBO 001482

SIPDIS

STATE FOR SA/INS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/06/2014
TAGS: PGOV CE
SUBJECT: SRI LANKA: HILL TAMIL PARTY GIVES GOVERNMENT
RAZOR-THIN MAJORITY


Classified By: CDA JAMES F. ENTWISTLE. REASON: 1.4 (B,D).



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CEYLON WORKERS NOW WORKING FOR THE GOVERNMENT
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1. (U) Sealing a long-anticipated move, on September 5
Arumugan Thondaman, head of the Ceylon Workers' Congress
(CWC),announced that his party's eight MPs will support the
United People's Freedom Alliance (UPFA) government of
President Chandrika Kumaratunga. The CWC switch means that
Kumaratunga's fragile coalition government can count on 114
votes in the 225-seat Parliament as it heads toward a vote on
the budget and other controversial measures, securing the
President the crucial--if razor-thin--majority that has
eluded her since her patchwork alliance won elections in
April. The CWC has, with only rare exception, traditionally
supported the opposition United National Party (UNP),
including during the last government.

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NATIONAL INTEREST OR POLITICAL GAMESMANSHIP?
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2. (SBU) When asked what prompted the CWC decision at this
particular moment, party stalwarts offered two differing
analyses. Faizer Mustapha, an MP from Kandy who is close to
the party leader, cited such politically disinterested
motives as the party's desire for a stable government to
advance the peace process and much-needed economic programs.
Mustapha denied that the CWC had been promised any
ministerial slots in exchange.


3. (C) CWC MP Vadivel Putrasigamini, on the other hand,
identified more parochial concerns, such as inroads made by
other parties into the CWC's traditional constituencies, as
the primary impetus. In particular, Putrasigamini
highlighted growing concern at "the JVP (Janatha Vimukti
Peramuna, a member of the government alliance) infiltrating
into the plantations" that constitute the CWC's traditional
stronghold. In addition, the CWC hopes to garner political
credit for the economic development programs the government
has committed to conducting. Sitting in the Opposition makes
that hard to do, Putrasigamini observed candidly. Finally,
supporting the government will help the CWC more effectively
oppose a controversial hydropower project proposal, which, if
implemented, could involve the resettlement of key portions
of the CWC electorate, he concluded. When asked if the CWC
move were also intended to support government efforts to
advance the peace process, he responded, "That, too." In
exchange, he suggested, the CWC will gain one ministerial
portfolio--possibly Estate Infrastructure--as well as two
slots for deputy ministers.
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COMMENT
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4. (C) A decade ago, the CWC, with its solid voter base of
Indian "hill" Tamils on tea estates in Nuwara Eliya and
Badulla, was the third largest party and thus the uncontested
"kingmaker" in a political landscape dominated by the two
national giants, the Sri Lankan Freedom Party (SLFP) and the
UNP. Since then, however, in the reconfiguration of
political alliances and the proliferation of new parties, the
CWC's ranking in the current Parliament has slipped to an
unimpressive seventh place--trailing behind the
rabble-rousing JVP, the jingoist Jathika Hela Urumaya and
even the badly splintered Sri Lanka Muslim Congress. To
preserve its endangered political prestige, the CWC needs to
demonstrate to its constituents that it can still deliver the
goods. As Putrasigamini observed, aligning itself with the
Government seems the most practical way to do so.


5. (C) Comment (continued): The Government has been
uncharacteristically quiet about the CWC cross-over. Perhaps
this atypical reserve signals that the President, whose
narrow one-seat majority still hinges on the volatile,
unpredictable JVP, realizes that she is not out of the woods
yet. That test will come during the current session of
Parliament, which opened September 7, when she must call on
the support of her motley alliance to pass the first
legislation of her administration.
ENTWISTLE