OAS AND CARTER CENTER PUT PRESSURE ON GOV

C O N F I D E N T I A L CARACAS 000749

SIPDIS


NSC FOR TSHANNON AND CBARTON
USCINSO ALSO FOR POLAD
STATE PASS USAID FOR DCHA/OTI

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/05/2014
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM VE
SUBJECT: OAS AND CARTER CENTER PUT PRESSURE ON GOV


CLASSIFIED BY: DCM STEPHEN G. MCFARLAND FOR REASON 1.4(D)

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SUMMARY:
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1. (C) CARTER CENTER REPRESENTATIVE MATTHEW HODES TOLD THE
AMBASSADOR MARCH 4 THAT FORMER PRESIDENT JIMMY CARTER AND OAS
SYG CESAR GAVIRIA WOULD PULL THEIR MISSIONS OUT OF VENEZUELA
IF THE GOV INSISTS ON UNWORKABLE RULES FOR THE PROPOSED
APPEALS PROCESS (REPARO). CNE DIRECTOR JORGE RODRIGUEZ WANTS
TO FIND AN AGREEMENT, BUT IT IS UNCLEAR WHAT INSTRUCTIONS HE
RECEIVED FROM CHAVEZ. MIRANDA STATE GOVERNOR MENDOZA AND
FELIPPE MUJICA (PREMERO JUSTICIA) ARE NEGOTIATING ON BEHALF
OF THE OPPOSITION, BUT THEY ALSO MUST NEGOTIATE WITH THE
OPPOSITION TO SELL WHATEVER DEAL THEY STRIKE. THE PARTIES
ARE SCHEDULED TO MEET AGAIN MARCH 5. END SUMMARY.

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CARTER AND GAVIRIA READY TO WALK
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2. (C) DURING DINNER WITH THE AMBASSADOR MARCH 4, CARTER
CENTER REPRESENTATIVE MATTHEW HODES SAID THAT BOTH FORMER
PRESIDENT JIMMY CARTER AND OAS SYG CESAR GAVIRIA WOULD PULL
THEIR MISSIONS OUT OF VENEZUELA IF THE GOV INSISTS ON
UNWORKABLE RULES FOR THE PROPOSED PRESIDENTIAL REFERENDUM
SIGNATURES APPEALS PROCESS (REPARO). HODES UNDERSTANDS THE
INHERENT CONFLICT BETWEEN THE ROLE OF THE OAS/CARTER CENTER
AS FACILITATORS OF NEGOTIATIONS AND THEIR ROLE AS OBSERVERS.
AS FACILITATORS, HODES SAID ONE NEVER WANTS TO WALK AWAY FROM
A NEGOTIATION SO LONG AS THE PARTIES ARE WILLING TO CONTINUE.
AS OBSERVERS, THEY WILL HAVE TO ISSUE A REPORT ON THEIR
FINDINGS. HE SAID CARTER AND GAVIRIA BOTH BELIEVE THAT THE
OBSERVER ROLE TRUMPS THE NATURAL INCLINATION TO KEEP DIALOGUE
GOING.

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NEGOTIATIONS: CNE AND OPPOSITION IN TOUGH POSITIONS
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3. (C) HODES TOLD THE AMBASSADOR THAT NATIONAL ELECTORAL
COUNCIL (CNE) DIRECTOR JORGE RODRIGUEZ SEEMS PERSONALLY
INTERESTED IN FINDING RULES FOR THE APPEALS PROCESS THAT WILL
BE MUTUALLY AGREEABLE. HOWEVER, HODES SAID, RODRIGUEZ IS
OBVIOUSLY TAKING INSTRUCTIONS FROM MINISTER OF INFRASTRUCTURE
DIOSDADO CABELLO AND PRESIDENT HUGO CHAVEZ AND IT IS UNCLEAR
WHAT INSTRUCTIONS RODRIGUEZ HAS. HODES NOTED THAT WHILE
MIRANDA STATE GOVERNOR ENRIQUE MENDOZA AND FELIPE MUJICA
(MOVEMENT TO SOCIALISM) SAY THEY ARE NEGOTIATING ON BEHALF OF
THE OPPOSITION, IN REALITY THEY HAVE TO FIRST NEGOTIATE WITH
RODRIGUEZ, THEN NEGOTIATE WITH THE OPPOSITION TO SELL
WHATEVER DEAL THEY STRIKE.


4. (C) THE PARTIES ARE SCHEDULED TO MEET AGAIN MARCH 5 TO
DISCUSS DETAILS FOR THE PROCESS AND WILL ALSO EXCHANGE DATA.
THE CNE WAS TO GIVE THE OPPOSITION THE OFFICIAL CNE RESULTS
AND DATA ON MARCH 4. THE OPPOSITION BELIEVES IT WILL TAKE AT
LEAST TWO FULL DAYS TO ANALYZE THAT INFORMATION AND COMPARE
IT TO DATA MAINTAINED BY SUMATE.

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CARTER TELLS GOV TO RESPECT THE WILL OF THE PEOPLE
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5. (C) HODES SAID THAT DURING A MEETING WITH FORMER PRESIDENT
JIMMY CARTER IN ATLANTA FEBRUARY 25, CARTER TOLD CABELLO THAT
IT WAS ABSOLUTELY UNACCEPTABLE THAT FIFTY PERCENT OF THE
SIGNATURES WERE ELIMINATED ON A TECHNICALITY, AND AN EX POST
FACTO TECHNICALITY AT THAT, AND THAT THE WILL OF THE
CITIZENRY SHOULD PREVAIL. CARTER SUGGESTED THAT IF CHAVEZ
WOULD WIN A RECALL, THEN THE GOV SHOULD ALLOW ONE TO TAKE
PLACE. CABELLO WOULD NOT BUDGE FROM HIS POSITION.


SHAPIRO

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2004CARACA00749 - CONFIDENTIAL