WHERE THE OPPOSITION STANDS ON CNE TALKS

C O N F I D E N T I A L CARACAS 000740

SIPDIS


NSC FOR CBARTON
USCINCSO ALSO FOR POLAD
STATE PASS USAID FOR DCHA/OTI

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/10/2014
TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM VE
SUBJECT: WHERE THE OPPOSITION STANDS ON CNE TALKS

REF: A. CARACAS 730 (NOTAL)

B. CARACAS 728

CLASSIFIED BY: ABELARDO A. ARIAS, POLITICAL COUNSELOR,
FOR REASONS 1.4 (D).

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SUMMARY
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1. (C) OPPOSITION LEADERS BEGAN DISCUSSIONS WITH NATIONAL
ELECTORAL COUNCIL (CNE) JORGE RODRIGUEZ ON MARCH 3 TO WORK
OUT A FORMULA FOR THE REFERENDUM SIGNATURES APPEALS PROCESS.
IN ADDITION TO NEGOTIATING WITH THE CNE, THE OPPOSITION
LEADERS FACE FUNDAMENTAL INTERNAL DIVISIONS AS TO WHETHER TO
PURSUE THE APPEALS PROCESS AT ALL. WE HAVE EMPHASIZED TO
THEM THE IMPORTANCE OF PURSUING THE REFERENDUM PROCESS TO THE
END, INCLUDING NEGOTIATING A VIABLE APPEALS PROCESS.
GENERALLY, TRADITIONAL PARTIES FAVOR NEGOTIATIONS WITH THE
CNE WHILE NEWER PARTIES AND NGOS BELIEVE THAT NEGOTIATIONS
VALIDATE THE UNFAIR, ILLEGAL CNE DECISION KNOCKING OUT MORE
THAN HALF OF THE SIGNATURES OF THE OPPOSITION SUBMITTED IN
DECEMBER 2003 IN SUPPORT OF A RECALL OF PRESIDENT HUGO
CHAVEZ. THIS MESSAGE PROVIDES OUR ASSESSMENT, BASED ON
DIRECT CONVERSATIONS AND OTHER IMPRESSIONS, OF WHERE
OPPOSITION LEADERS STAND REGARDING THE APPEALS PROCESS. END
SUMMARY.

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ENRIQUE MENDOZA: NEGOTIATING THE "REPARO" PROCESS
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2. (C) AIDES TO DEMOCRATIC COORDINATING COMMITTEE (DCC) CHIEF
ENRIQUE MENDOZA SAY HE IS FULLY DEDICATED TO NEGOTIATING WITH
THE NATIONAL ELECTORAL COUNCIL (CNE) TO DESIGN A WORKABLE
APPEALS PROCESS FOR THE PRESIDENTIAL REFERENDUM SIGNATURES.
MENDOZA, THE DCC CHIEF NEGOTIATOR IN THE TALKS WITH THE CNE,
IS PUSHING AGREEMENT WITHIN THE DCC TO GO TO THE APPEALS
PROCESS, HIS AIDES SAY, THOUGH MUCH DEPENDS ON HIS ABILITY TO
GARNER CONCESSIONS FROM THE CNE (REF).

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MAS ON BOARD: MUJICA NEGOTIATING
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3. (C) MOVEMENT TO SOCIALISM (MAS) PRESIDENT FELIPE MUJICA
TOLD POLOFF MARCH 4 THAT HE IS NEGOTIATING ALONG WITH MENDOZA
AT THE CNE. HE IS OPTIMISTIC THAT A WORKABLE SOLUTION WILL
BE REACHED. HE ASKED US FOR HELP IN CONVINCING OPPOSITION
HOLDOUTS THAT THE APPEALS PROCESS IS THE ONLY VIABLE
ALTERNATIVE.

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CTV: NEGOTIATIONS WITH OAS GUARANTEES, STREET ACTION
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4. (C) CONFEDERATION OF WORKERS (CTV) OF VENEZUELA SECRETARY
GENERAL MANUEL COVA SAID HIS ORGANIZATION SUPPORTS THE
NEGOTIATIONS, THOUGH HE DOUBTS THE APPEALS PROCESS WILL BE
HANDLED FAIRLY. HE SAID THEY HOPE THE OAS WILL ACT AS
GUARANTORS OF THE APPEALS PROCESS. COVA COMMENTED THAT THIS
WOULD BE THE LAST TIME THE OPPOSITION CAN BE EXPECTED TO GO
BACK TO THE REFERENDUM PROCESS. HE SAID THE CTV IS CALLING
FOR PEACEFUL PROTESTS AND UNION MEETINGS TO DISCUSS THE
POLITICAL SITUATION.

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AD: TEETERING TOWARD NEGOTIATIONS
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5. (C) ACCION DEMOCRATICA (AD) REPORTEDLY HAS BEEN LESS
WILLING TO NEGOTIATE, PREFERRING TO LET THE DCC NEGOTIATE.
DCC REPRESENTATIVES HAVE TOLD US THAT AD SECRETARY GENERAL
HENRY RAMOS TOLD THEM THAT AD WOULD SUPPORT A "FEASIBLE"
APPEALS PROCESS. THE KILLING AN AD PARTY MEMBER DURING A
PROTEST IN ZULIA ON MARCH 4 MAY EFFECT AD'S POSITION.

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PRIMERO JUSTICIA: GOV HAS CROSSED THE LINE

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6. (C) PRIMERO JUSTICIA (JUSTICE FIRST, PJ) SECRETARY GENERAL
JOSE LUIS MEJIAS TOLD POLOFF MARCH 4 THAT HIS PARTY BELIEVES
THE CNE DECISION ESSENTIALLY STOLE THE REFERENDUM AND THAT
THE OAS MUST ACT UNDER THE INTER-AMERICAN CHARTER. MEJIAS
OPINED THAT THE TRADITIONAL PARTIES THAT ARE NEGOTIATING WITH
THE CNE ARE SEEKING TO PRESERVE REMNANTS OF THE "FOURTH
REPUBLIC," THAT IS, THE PRE-CHAVEZ POWER SHARING STRUCTURE.
HE SAID THE APPEALS PROCESS IS NOT WINNABLE AND NOT WORTH
PURSUING. HE CONCEDED THAT PJ MIGHT SUPPORT AN APPEALS
PROCESS IF IT SEEMED POSSIBLE TO SUCCEED.

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PROYECTO VENEZUELA: SITTING IT OUT
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8. (C) PROYECTO VENEZUELA (VENEZUELA PROJECT) FOUNDER
HENRIQUE SALAS ROMER ANNOUNCED MARCH 3 HE WOULD NOT SUPPORT
NEGOTIATING WITH THE GOV "ON PRINCIPLE." SALAS TOLD
AMBASSADOR MARCH 2 HE BELIEVED THE DCC'S DECISION TO
NEGOTIATE WOULD SPELL ITS POLITICAL DEATH. (COMMENT: SALAS
IS LIKELY GAMING THE SITUATION TO BE THE EMERGING OPPOSITION
LEADER ONCE THE APPEALS PROCESS FAILS. END COMMENT.)

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ALIANZA BRAVO PUEBLO: LIKELY SUPPORT
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9. (C) ALIANZA BRAVO PUEBLO (BRAVE PEOPLE'S ALLIANCE, ABP)
PRESIDENT ANTONIO LEDEZMA TOLD POLOFF MARCH 2 HE WOULD
SUPPORT THE APPEALS PROCESS. HIS SUBSEQUENT PRESS STATEMENTS
HAVE SUGGESTED OTHERWISE. NATIONAL ASSEMBLY DEPUTY TIMOTEO
ZAMBRANO, CO-FOUNDER WITH LEDEZMA OF ABP AND NOW AT ODDS WITH
HIS COLLEAGUE, HAS SAID HE SUPPORTS THE NEGOTIATIONS AND
GETTING TO THE APPEALS PROCESS. (COMMENT: DESPITE LEDEZMA'S
PUBLIC STATEMENTS URGING CONTINUED PROTESTS TO "DEFEND THE
SIGNATURES," WE EXPECT HE WILL GO ALONG WITH THE CONSENSUS
AND SUPPORT THE APPEALS PROCESS. END COMMENT.)

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FEDECAMARAS: WILLING TO GO ALONG
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10. (C) FEDECAMARAS PRESIDENT ALBIS MUNOZ TOLD ECONCOUNS
MARCH 4 SHE HAS TAKEN A TOUGH LINE AGAINST THE CNE ON THE
ILLEGALITY OF ITS DECISION. HOWEVER, SHE BELIEVES THE
OPPOSITION MUST FOLLOW THROUGH WITH THE APPEALS PROCESS.
THEY MUST TRUST NEGOTIATORS MENDOZA AND MUJICA TO MAKE THE
BEST DEAL POSSIBLE FROM THE CNE, SHE SAID.

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SUMATE: DUBIOUS BUT ON BOARD
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11. (C) LEADERS OF THE NGO SUMATE TOLD US THEY DOUBT THE
APPEALS PROCESS WILL WORK ON TECHNICAL GROUNDS. IDENTIFYING
THE POOL OF PERSONS WHOSE SIGNATURES WERE NOT ACCEPTED, AND
GETTING THEM TO A CNE-RUN CENTER DURING THE APPEALS PERIOD,
ARE SIMPLY NOT POSSIBLE UNDER CURRENT CONDITIONS, THEY SAY.

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GENTE DE PETROLEO: WRESTLING WITH PRINCIPLE
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12. (C) JUAN FERNANDEZ, LEADER OF GENTE DE PETROLEO
("PETROLEUM PEOPLE," COMPOSED OF FIRED PDVSA WORKERS AND
THEIR FAMILIES),TOLD POLCOUNS MARCH 4 HE BELIEVES IT IS
IMPORTANT TO PURSUE THE REFERENDUM PROCESS TO THE END. HE
NOTED, HOWEVER, THAT THE DCC MUST COME UP WITH A FORMULA THAT
TAKES INTO ACCOUNT THE STRONG FEELING THAT MANY VENEZUELANS
HAVE ABOUT BEING DEFRAUDED BY THE CNE DECISION. HE
ACKNOWLEDGED THAT THERE IS NO EASY SOLUTION TO THAT DILEMMA.
AS OF MARCH 4, FERNANDEZ WAS UNCERTAIN THAT HE COULD FULLY
SUPPORT THE NEGOTIATIONS ON THE APPEALS PROCESS, BUT HE WOULD
NOT BLOCK THEM.

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COMMENT

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13. (C) WE HAVE STRESSED TO OPPOSITION REPRESENTATIVES THE
IMPORTANCE OF PURSUING THE REFERENDUM PROCESS TO THE END,
INCLUDING COMING TO THE TABLE WITH THE GOVERNMENT TO
NEGOTIATE ON THE SIGNATURE APPEALS PROCESS (REPAROS). WE
HAVE NOTED THAT WE ARE NOT MERELY ADVISING THAT THE
OPPOSITION STICK WITH THE PROCESS AND NEGOTIATE ON THE
APPEALS PROCESS BECAUSE IT IS JUST ONE MORE BOX TO CHECK OFF.
ANOTHER POINT WE HAVE MADE IS THAT THE GOV HAS THE UPPER
HAND BECAUSE THE CNE HAS CREATED THE APPEARANCE OF HAVING
MADE A PROPER DECISION, WITHIN ITS AUTHORITY, AND THE
OPPOSITION IS NOT WITHOUT LEGAL RECOURSE. WE HAVE ALSO
ACKNOWLEDGED THAT WHILE THE OPPOSITION FACES THE DILEMMA OF
"NEGOTIATING AWAY" THE SIGNATURES, OR OF VIOLATING PRINCIPLES
BY "VALIDATING" THE WRONGS COMMITTED BY THE CNE TO DATE,
BEING MADE RESPONSIBLE FOR ABORTING THE REFERENDUM PROCESS
WOULD HURT THE OPPOSITION AND HAND CHAVEZ A JUICIER VICTORY.



14. (C) THE ACCEPTANCE OF THE APPEALS PROCESS BY THE
OPPOSITION AT-LARGE WILL DEPEND ON THE TERMS OF THE DEAL
BROKERED WITH THE CNE. WE BELIEVE THAT IF A REASONABLE
AGREEMENT IS REACHED, MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE OPPOSITION
GROUPS WILL GO ALONG. SALAS MAY EVEN PARTICIPATE IF HE IS
ABLE TO DO SO WHILE RETAINING HIS PURIST IMAGE. MAINTAINING
OPPOSITION UNITY DEPENDS ON THE SUCCESS OF THE NEGOTIATIONS,
MAKING THE ROLE OF THE OAS AND CARTER CENTER AS FACILITATORS
BETWEEN THE OPPOSITION AND THE CNE CRITICAL.

SHAPIRO

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2004CARACA00740 - CONFIDENTIAL