WHERE THE OPPOSITION STANDS ON CNE TALKS

C O N F I D E N T I A L CARACAS 000740 SIPDIS NSC FOR CBARTON USCINCSO ALSO FOR POLAD STATE PASS USAID FOR DCHA/OTI E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/10/2014 TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM VE SUBJECT: WHERE THE OPPOSITION STANDS ON CNE TALKS REF: A. CARACAS 730 (NOTAL) ¶B. CARACAS 728 CLASSIFIED BY: ABELARDO A. ARIAS, POLITICAL COUNSELOR, FOR REASONS 1.4 (D). -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) OPPOSITION LEADERS BEGAN DISCUSSIONS WITH NATIONAL ELECTORAL COUNCIL (CNE) JORGE RODRIGUEZ ON MARCH 3 TO WORK OUT A FORMULA FOR THE REFERENDUM SIGNATURES APPEALS PROCESS. IN ADDITION TO NEGOTIATING WITH THE CNE, THE OPPOSITION LEADERS FACE FUNDAMENTAL INTERNAL DIVISIONS AS TO WHETHER TO PURSUE THE APPEALS PROCESS AT ALL. WE HAVE EMPHASIZED TO THEM THE IMPORTANCE OF PURSUING THE REFERENDUM PROCESS TO THE END, INCLUDING NEGOTIATING A VIABLE APPEALS PROCESS. GENERALLY, TRADITIONAL PARTIES FAVOR NEGOTIATIONS WITH THE CNE WHILE NEWER PARTIES AND NGOS BELIEVE THAT NEGOTIATIONS VALIDATE THE UNFAIR, ILLEGAL CNE DECISION KNOCKING OUT MORE THAN HALF OF THE SIGNATURES OF THE OPPOSITION SUBMITTED IN DECEMBER 2003 IN SUPPORT OF A RECALL OF PRESIDENT HUGO CHAVEZ. THIS MESSAGE PROVIDES OUR ASSESSMENT, BASED ON DIRECT CONVERSATIONS AND OTHER IMPRESSIONS, OF WHERE OPPOSITION LEADERS STAND REGARDING THE APPEALS PROCESS. END SUMMARY. -------------- -------------- ENRIQUE MENDOZA: NEGOTIATING THE "REPARO" PROCESS -------------- -------------- ¶2. (C) AIDES TO DEMOCRATIC COORDINATING COMMITTEE (DCC) CHIEF ENRIQUE MENDOZA SAY HE IS FULLY DEDICATED TO NEGOTIATING WITH THE NATIONAL ELECTORAL COUNCIL (CNE) TO DESIGN A WORKABLE APPEALS PROCESS FOR THE PRESIDENTIAL REFERENDUM SIGNATURES. MENDOZA, THE DCC CHIEF NEGOTIATOR IN THE TALKS WITH THE CNE, IS PUSHING AGREEMENT WITHIN THE DCC TO GO TO THE APPEALS PROCESS, HIS AIDES SAY, THOUGH MUCH DEPENDS ON HIS ABILITY TO GARNER CONCESSIONS FROM THE CNE (REF). -------------- MAS ON BOARD: MUJICA NEGOTIATING -------------- ¶3. (C) MOVEMENT TO SOCIALISM (MAS) PRESIDENT FELIPE MUJICA TOLD POLOFF MARCH 4 THAT HE IS NEGOTIATING ALONG WITH MENDOZA AT THE CNE. HE IS OPTIMISTIC THAT A WORKABLE SOLUTION WILL BE REACHED. HE ASKED US FOR HELP IN CONVINCING OPPOSITION HOLDOUTS THAT THE APPEALS PROCESS IS THE ONLY VIABLE ALTERNATIVE. -------------- -------------- CTV: NEGOTIATIONS WITH OAS GUARANTEES, STREET ACTION -------------- -------------- ¶4. (C) CONFEDERATION OF WORKERS (CTV) OF VENEZUELA SECRETARY GENERAL MANUEL COVA SAID HIS ORGANIZATION SUPPORTS THE NEGOTIATIONS, THOUGH HE DOUBTS THE APPEALS PROCESS WILL BE HANDLED FAIRLY. HE SAID THEY HOPE THE OAS WILL ACT AS GUARANTORS OF THE APPEALS PROCESS. COVA COMMENTED THAT THIS WOULD BE THE LAST TIME THE OPPOSITION CAN BE EXPECTED TO GO BACK TO THE REFERENDUM PROCESS. HE SAID THE CTV IS CALLING FOR PEACEFUL PROTESTS AND UNION MEETINGS TO DISCUSS THE POLITICAL SITUATION. -------------- AD: TEETERING TOWARD NEGOTIATIONS -------------- ¶5. (C) ACCION DEMOCRATICA (AD) REPORTEDLY HAS BEEN LESS WILLING TO NEGOTIATE, PREFERRING TO LET THE DCC NEGOTIATE. DCC REPRESENTATIVES HAVE TOLD US THAT AD SECRETARY GENERAL HENRY RAMOS TOLD THEM THAT AD WOULD SUPPORT A "FEASIBLE" APPEALS PROCESS. THE KILLING AN AD PARTY MEMBER DURING A PROTEST IN ZULIA ON MARCH 4 MAY EFFECT AD'S POSITION. -------------- PRIMERO JUSTICIA: GOV HAS CROSSED THE LINE -------------- ¶6. (C) PRIMERO JUSTICIA (JUSTICE FIRST, PJ) SECRETARY GENERAL JOSE LUIS MEJIAS TOLD POLOFF MARCH 4 THAT HIS PARTY BELIEVES THE CNE DECISION ESSENTIALLY STOLE THE REFERENDUM AND THAT THE OAS MUST ACT UNDER THE INTER-AMERICAN CHARTER. MEJIAS OPINED THAT THE TRADITIONAL PARTIES THAT ARE NEGOTIATING WITH THE CNE ARE SEEKING TO PRESERVE REMNANTS OF THE "FOURTH REPUBLIC," THAT IS, THE PRE-CHAVEZ POWER SHARING STRUCTURE. HE SAID THE APPEALS PROCESS IS NOT WINNABLE AND NOT WORTH PURSUING. HE CONCEDED THAT PJ MIGHT SUPPORT AN APPEALS PROCESS IF IT SEEMED POSSIBLE TO SUCCEED. -------------- PROYECTO VENEZUELA: SITTING IT OUT -------------- ¶8. (C) PROYECTO VENEZUELA (VENEZUELA PROJECT) FOUNDER HENRIQUE SALAS ROMER ANNOUNCED MARCH 3 HE WOULD NOT SUPPORT NEGOTIATING WITH THE GOV "ON PRINCIPLE." SALAS TOLD AMBASSADOR MARCH 2 HE BELIEVED THE DCC'S DECISION TO NEGOTIATE WOULD SPELL ITS POLITICAL DEATH. (COMMENT: SALAS IS LIKELY GAMING THE SITUATION TO BE THE EMERGING OPPOSITION LEADER ONCE THE APPEALS PROCESS FAILS. END COMMENT.) -------------- ALIANZA BRAVO PUEBLO: LIKELY SUPPORT -------------- ¶9. (C) ALIANZA BRAVO PUEBLO (BRAVE PEOPLE'S ALLIANCE, ABP) PRESIDENT ANTONIO LEDEZMA TOLD POLOFF MARCH 2 HE WOULD SUPPORT THE APPEALS PROCESS. HIS SUBSEQUENT PRESS STATEMENTS HAVE SUGGESTED OTHERWISE. NATIONAL ASSEMBLY DEPUTY TIMOTEO ZAMBRANO, CO-FOUNDER WITH LEDEZMA OF ABP AND NOW AT ODDS WITH HIS COLLEAGUE, HAS SAID HE SUPPORTS THE NEGOTIATIONS AND GETTING TO THE APPEALS PROCESS. (COMMENT: DESPITE LEDEZMA'S PUBLIC STATEMENTS URGING CONTINUED PROTESTS TO "DEFEND THE SIGNATURES," WE EXPECT HE WILL GO ALONG WITH THE CONSENSUS AND SUPPORT THE APPEALS PROCESS. END COMMENT.) -------------- FEDECAMARAS: WILLING TO GO ALONG -------------- ¶10. (C) FEDECAMARAS PRESIDENT ALBIS MUNOZ TOLD ECONCOUNS MARCH 4 SHE HAS TAKEN A TOUGH LINE AGAINST THE CNE ON THE ILLEGALITY OF ITS DECISION. HOWEVER, SHE BELIEVES THE OPPOSITION MUST FOLLOW THROUGH WITH THE APPEALS PROCESS. THEY MUST TRUST NEGOTIATORS MENDOZA AND MUJICA TO MAKE THE BEST DEAL POSSIBLE FROM THE CNE, SHE SAID. -------------- SUMATE: DUBIOUS BUT ON BOARD -------------- ¶11. (C) LEADERS OF THE NGO SUMATE TOLD US THEY DOUBT THE APPEALS PROCESS WILL WORK ON TECHNICAL GROUNDS. IDENTIFYING THE POOL OF PERSONS WHOSE SIGNATURES WERE NOT ACCEPTED, AND GETTING THEM TO A CNE-RUN CENTER DURING THE APPEALS PERIOD, ARE SIMPLY NOT POSSIBLE UNDER CURRENT CONDITIONS, THEY SAY. -------------- GENTE DE PETROLEO: WRESTLING WITH PRINCIPLE -------------- ¶12. (C) JUAN FERNANDEZ, LEADER OF GENTE DE PETROLEO ("PETROLEUM PEOPLE," COMPOSED OF FIRED PDVSA WORKERS AND THEIR FAMILIES),TOLD POLCOUNS MARCH 4 HE BELIEVES IT IS IMPORTANT TO PURSUE THE REFERENDUM PROCESS TO THE END. HE NOTED, HOWEVER, THAT THE DCC MUST COME UP WITH A FORMULA THAT TAKES INTO ACCOUNT THE STRONG FEELING THAT MANY VENEZUELANS HAVE ABOUT BEING DEFRAUDED BY THE CNE DECISION. HE ACKNOWLEDGED THAT THERE IS NO EASY SOLUTION TO THAT DILEMMA. AS OF MARCH 4, FERNANDEZ WAS UNCERTAIN THAT HE COULD FULLY SUPPORT THE NEGOTIATIONS ON THE APPEALS PROCESS, BUT HE WOULD NOT BLOCK THEM. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶13. (C) WE HAVE STRESSED TO OPPOSITION REPRESENTATIVES THE IMPORTANCE OF PURSUING THE REFERENDUM PROCESS TO THE END, INCLUDING COMING TO THE TABLE WITH THE GOVERNMENT TO NEGOTIATE ON THE SIGNATURE APPEALS PROCESS (REPAROS). WE HAVE NOTED THAT WE ARE NOT MERELY ADVISING THAT THE OPPOSITION STICK WITH THE PROCESS AND NEGOTIATE ON THE APPEALS PROCESS BECAUSE IT IS JUST ONE MORE BOX TO CHECK OFF. ANOTHER POINT WE HAVE MADE IS THAT THE GOV HAS THE UPPER HAND BECAUSE THE CNE HAS CREATED THE APPEARANCE OF HAVING MADE A PROPER DECISION, WITHIN ITS AUTHORITY, AND THE OPPOSITION IS NOT WITHOUT LEGAL RECOURSE. WE HAVE ALSO ACKNOWLEDGED THAT WHILE THE OPPOSITION FACES THE DILEMMA OF "NEGOTIATING AWAY" THE SIGNATURES, OR OF VIOLATING PRINCIPLES BY "VALIDATING" THE WRONGS COMMITTED BY THE CNE TO DATE, BEING MADE RESPONSIBLE FOR ABORTING THE REFERENDUM PROCESS WOULD HURT THE OPPOSITION AND HAND CHAVEZ A JUICIER VICTORY. ¶14. (C) THE ACCEPTANCE OF THE APPEALS PROCESS BY THE OPPOSITION AT-LARGE WILL DEPEND ON THE TERMS OF THE DEAL BROKERED WITH THE CNE. WE BELIEVE THAT IF A REASONABLE AGREEMENT IS REACHED, MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE OPPOSITION GROUPS WILL GO ALONG. SALAS MAY EVEN PARTICIPATE IF HE IS ABLE TO DO SO WHILE RETAINING HIS PURIST IMAGE. MAINTAINING OPPOSITION UNITY DEPENDS ON THE SUCCESS OF THE NEGOTIATIONS, MAKING THE ROLE OF THE OAS AND CARTER CENTER AS FACILITATORS BETWEEN THE OPPOSITION AND THE CNE CRITICAL. SHAPIRO NNNN 2004CARACA00740 - CONFIDENTIAL