WEEKEND OF CONFLICT IN CARACAS; NO CNE DECISION YET

C O N F I D E N T I A L CARACAS 000700

SIPDIS


NSC FOR CBARTON
USCINCSO ALSO FOR POLAD
STATE PASS USAID FOR DCHA/OTI

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/10/2014
TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM VE
SUBJECT: WEEKEND OF CONFLICT IN CARACAS; NO CNE DECISION YET


Classified By: Abelardo A. Arias, Political Counselor,
for Reasons 1.4(d).

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Summary
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1. (C) Opposition groups staged two days of protests in the
wake of the February 27 march that left one dead and dozens
injured. The GOV staged its own march of hundreds of
thousands on February 28 to protest U.S. intervention in
Venezuelan affairs. Speaking to the crowd, President Chavez
delivered an unusually ferocious attack against the USG, in
which he repeatedly attacked President Bush, claiming he had
evidence of U.S. invasion plans. The President promised to
meet any blockade or invasion by cutting off oil to the U.S.;
any actions against Venezuelan companies in the U.S. would be
reciprocated against U.S. companies in Venezuela. The
National Electoral Council (CNE) did not/not report the
preliminary results of the presidential recall signature
drive on February 29 as planned and plans to meet on March 1
to come to an agreement. The CNE approved instructions for
the five-day challenge period for the referendum petition
signatures and asked for comments from the parties. End
summary.

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Three Days of Conflict
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2. (U) In the wake of the GOV's quelling of the opposition's
march on February 27, small opposition groups staged protests
throughout Venezuela on February 28 and 29. Protesters
blocked roads, burning tires and trash day and night,
throughout the eastern part of Caracas. GOV security forces
made little effort to clear protests and open roads. Similar
incidents were reported in the states of Zulia, Carabobo,
Lara, Anzoategui, and Tachira. Some protesters claimed to be
acting under Article 350 of the constitution, which obligates
citizens to reject a government that strays from democratic
rule or violates human rights. Graffiti around Caracas says:
"RR or 350" (Recall Referendum or Article 350 of the
Constitution).


3. (U) In Caracas, the main conflict February 29 occurred at
Plaza Francia in the pro-opposition area of Altamira, where
dozens of National Guard clashed with more than a hundred
protesters. Eight protesters were wounded by gunshots and
more than 100 suffered from tear gas, according to Chacao
Mayor Leopoldo Lopez.


4. (U) An opposition group of about 120 people demonstrated
support for the USG at the Embassy on February 29. The
demonstration was peaceful and without incident.

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GOV Rallies March Against Imperialism
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5. (C) The GOV organized a mass march on February 29 with
participants from all over the country. The theme was
rejection of U.S. intervention in Venezuela and of electoral
fraud by the opposition. Foreign press reports said more
than 100,000 people attended the march, which ended on the
Francisco Fajardo highway. Private media reports showed more
than a hundred buses used to transport many march
participants from outside Caracas. Poloff observed about 300
pro-government marchers heading toward the march's beginning
point under escort by five armed men in plain clothes on
motorcycle. The marchers appeared to be from the states of
Cojedes and Anzoategui and carried anti-U.S. signs. DCM
observed marchers arriving from eastern Caracas. The class
and racial differences between these marchers and the
anti-GOV marchers were striking. Most marchers were
organized (e.g., by participation in Plan Ribas, Plan
Robinson, Diosdado Cabello supporters) and identified by
T-shirts. The demonstrations were enthusiastic.

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Chavez Alleges U.S. Invasion Plans
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6. (U) During his two-and-a-half-hour speech to march
participants, obligatorily broadcast on all Venezuelan
television and radio stations, President Chavez railed
against the United States for alleged imperialism and
intervention throughout the world. He claimed to have radio
intercepts from February 28 proving that U.S. warships were
preparing to invade Venezuela. Chavez threatened to cut off
oil shipments to the U.S. if the USG moved to blockade or
invade Venezuela. Chavez also vowed to reciprocate any
actions against Venezuelan assets in the United States with
actions against U.S. investments in Venezuela. Chavez
offered a bet to President Bush that he, Chavez, would remain
in officer longer. He also made a racially-charged reference
to Secretary Powell's decision not to run for president in
1996 for fear of being assassinated. He insulted the
President, twice calling him a "pendejo" (literally a pubic
hair, colloquially a derogatory term for idiot).

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CNE Puts Off Decision One More Day
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7. (U) National Electoral Council (CNE) director Jorge
Rodriguez (pro-GOV) announced late on February 29 that the
CNE board would release preliminary results of the
verification of signatures collected in support of a recall
referendum against President Chavez 24 hours later on March

1. The CNE worked over the weekend without the two
opposition directors, Ezequiel Zamora and Sobella Mejias. In
their absence, the CNE board approved instructions for the
five-day challenge process to affirm or contest signatures
tossed out during the verification process. Rodriguez said
the parties to the signature drive could "evaluate the
appropriateness" of the instructions before the preliminary
results are released. Zamora said publicly that the
instructions as approved would make the referendum not
feasible.

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Comment
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8. (C) Having reached the boiling point, the political
situation is only going to be made more tense by the CNE's
decision. It is doubtful the CNE is going to reach a
mutually favorable decision on the five-day challenge process
and the number of signatures subject to it. Though he was
clearly playing it up for the occasion, Chavez's speech was
the most severe anti-American rhetoric in the past two years.
He has marked the United States as the intellectual masters
of the opposition, equating an electoral solution with a coup
and, now, with an invasion. While Chavez's charges against
us are laughable, the capacity for his supporters to listen
to him crying wolf, and believe him, seems infinite.

SHAPIRO


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2004CARACA00700 - CONFIDENTIAL