VENEZUELA POLITICAL UPDATE: 2/13/2004

C O N F I D E N T I A L CARACAS 000552 SIPDIS NSC FOR TSHANNON AND CBARTON USCINSO ALSO FOR POLAD STATE PASS USAID FOR DCHA/OTI E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/13/2014 TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM VE SUBJECT: VENEZUELA POLITICAL UPDATE: 2/13/2004 REF: CARACAS 00535 AND PREVIOUS Classified By: Acting PolCouns Mark Wells for Reasons 1.5(b) and (d) -------------- SUMMARY: -------------- ¶1. Carter Center: -- (U) In a February 13 statement the Carter Center called on the National Electoral Council (CNE) to publish a firm schedule to finish their verification of signature sheets by February 28. ¶2. OAS: -- (C) OAS observers told poloff that a February 28 deadline would most likely be impossible to meet logistically. ¶3. CNE: -- (U) CNE Director Jorge Rodriguez said February 12 that the CNE's Superior Technical Committee (CTS) will be increased from 39 to 78 members to accelerate the review of the signature forms. -- (C) OAS observer Marcelo Alvarez told poloff February 13 that the CNE's computer check of the signature sheets has begun. The CTS expects to receive instructions on February ¶16. -- (C) Amado Dounia, an opposition statistics manager, told poloff February 13 that the new review of signature forms does not bode well for the chances of a getting a recall referendum. ¶4. Opposition: -- (C) Salas Romer called Ambassador February 13 to say he tried call off the February 14 march without success. Romer's people will not participate. -- (C) Various opposition leaders were threatened, pushed, and otherwise deterred from entering the area when approached the CNE headquarters on February 13. -- (C) DCC operative Amado Dounia told poloff February 13 that Enrique Naime, chief CNE monitor for the DCC, has received a death threat against his 17-year-old daughter if he continues his work at the CNE. -- (U) Television coverage showing pro-Chavez activists pushing and ripping the clothes of opposition leaders was interrupted on February 13 by a "cadena" broadcast by Chavez, in which the GoV instituted a mandatory broadcast on all media outlets. -- (U) Enrique Naime, spokesman for the broad opposition Democratic Coordinating Committee (DCC) said February 13 the opposition would continue to protest until the CNE declared a recall referendum and published norms for its decisions. -- (C) Opposition deputy Leopoldo Martinez told poloff February 13 that he doubted the success of the February 14 march due to fears of violence. ¶5. Violent Protests: (U) Various opposition street protests broke out on the evening of February 12 in cities across the country in the wake of the CNE's announcement postponing a decision to schedule a recall referendum. ¶6. GoV: -- (U) Vice-President Rangel dismissed the February 12 demonstrations as staged events, perpetrated by the opposition-controlled media. -- (U) The Avila Heliport, the principal launching site for helicopters run by private media organizations in Caracas, was ordered closed February 14 by the GoV's Ministry of Infrastructure. End Summary. -------------- - Carter Center Calls on CNE to Finish the Count -------------- - ¶7. (U) In a February 13 statement issued after a meeting with officials of the National Electoral Council (CNE),Carter Center representative Fernando Jaramillo and Jennifer McCoy called on the CNE to publish a firm schedule of events through which they could finish their verification of signature sheets no later than February 28. (Note: a copy of the Carter Center statement has been forwarded to WHA/AND). The statement reviewed the integral involvement of the OAS and Carter Center as observers in the signature collection and verification process, and noted "technical obstacles" that kept the CNE's Superior Technical Committee (CTS) from fully reviewing all the signature forms submitted. These obstacles, the statement said, were due to the immense volume of forms referred to the committee and the "new character" of the process. ¶8. (U) The statement said the Carter Center and the OAS are encouraged that the CNE announced February 12 that it would finish the verification process by end of the month, and encouraged the CNE to publish the results by that time. In addition, the Carter Center and OAS encouraged the CNE to publish a schedule and comply with it, and urged transparency in all control mechanisms to guard against fraud. ¶9. (U) Quoting former President Jimmy Carter, the statement said the expression of the people must take precedence over any legal technicality in counting the signatures. Lastly, the statement said the CNE must be allowed to develop the process without political pressures, and urged all parties to express their concerns through peaceful means, without intimidating the CNE or its facilities. -------------- OAS Privately Skeptical of New Deadline -------------- ¶10. (C) In a February 13 meeting, OAS observer Marcelo Alvarez confided to poloff that a February 28 deadline would most likely be impossible to meet logistically. Alvarez said that setting another date effectively kicks the ball down the field, taking pressure off this weekend. -------------- CNE Director Hints at New Schedule -------------- ¶11. (U) When he arrived for a February 13 meeting with OAS and Carter Center representatives, CNE Director Jorge Rodriguez told the media that the signature results woudl be know by the end of the month. Rodriguez also said security had been reinforced around the CNE building. Additionally, Rodriguez announced on February 12 that the CNE's Superior Technical Committee (CTS) will be increased from 39 to 78 members to accelerate the review of the signature forms. ¶12. (C) OAS observer Julio Alvarez told poloff February 13 that the CNE's computer check of the signature sheets has begun. The CTS expects to receive instructions on February ¶16. They have not yet implemented the quality control step, in which a CNE supervisor reviews signatures that do not match the electoral registry. Alvarez estimates it will take ten days per drive to perform the quality control step, but could be shortened by adding more staff. The results of that step must be re-submitted for transcription to fix any error. -------------- -------------- Opposition Leaders Abused, Chavez Blocks Broadcast -------------- -------------- ¶13. (C) Pro-Chavez activists ("chavistas") in battle dress camping out in front of the CNE building make good on their pledge to physically keep the opposition away from the CNE. As various opposition leaders approached the CNE headquarters on February 13, they were threatened, pushed, and otherwise ejected from the area. National Assembly deputy Leopoldo Martinez (Causa R) told poloff February 13 that deputy Andres Velazquez was threatened by a man who pointed a pistol at his head when he tried to get near the CNE building. According to Martinez, nearby National Guard troops refused to protect Velasquez, and instead told him to go away before more trouble erupts. ¶14. (C) Threats are not limited to oppositon leaders approaching the CNE building. DCC operative Amado Dounia told poloff February 13 that Enrique Naime, a long-time Copei activists and chief CNE monitor for the DCC, has received a death threat against his 17-year-old daughter if he continues his work at the CNE. ¶15. (U) Private television coverage showing crowds of pro-Chavez activists pushing and ripping the clothes of opposition leaders was interrupted on the afternoon of February 13 by a "cadena" broadcast by Chavez, in which the GoV instituted a mandatory broadcast on all media outlets. Chavez showed samples of the opposition's alleged "megafraud," drawn from copies of signature forms. -------------- Opposition Figures Not Encouraging -------------- ¶16. (C) Regardless of the deadline, Amado Dounia, a statistics manager for the DCC, told poloff February 13 that the new review of signature forms does not bode well for the chances of a getting a recall referendum. With 93,000 forms currently in the CTS, Dounia calculates that, assuming a successful review rate of 25 percent, they could still trigger the referendum. If 180,000-200,000 forms goes to the CTS for review via the new physical inspection, Dounia said the referendum will be lost. All depends on how many criteria the CNE decides to apply, he concluded. -------------- Opposition Defiant; Nervously Planning March -------------- ¶17. (U) Enrique Naime, spokesman for the broad opposition Democratic Coordinating Committee (DCC) told the press early February 13 that the opposition would continue to protest until the CNE declared a recall referendum, scheduled an election, and published norms for its decisions. Naime noted that the GoV was making the most noise because they "have defeat painted on their face." ¶18. (C) During a February 13 meeting with poloff, Lisette Behrens, legal adviser of the Democratic Coordinating Committee (DCC),said the DCC is still planning to press their march on February 14 to protest the continued shift in the CNE's verification rules. Behrens expects over 600,000 demonstrators. Behrens said she and other DCC leaders met February 12 with officials of the Ministry of Interior and Justice to discuss security for the march. The ministry officials not only refused to guarantee security, but also tried to convince the opposition to send the marchers to other areas the opposition regards as unsafe or too small for their numbers. The GOV has already made the most direct route to the CNE difficult by scheduling a meat market on the same route. To avoid attacks, opposition leaders plan to decided the actual march route on the night of February 13. Behrens said opposition marchers have been instructed not to carry weapons of any sort, to deny Chavez the ability to blame them for any outbreaks of violence. Behrens spoke with concern about the Democratic Bloc, a small opposition fringe group who does not believe in the referendum. ¶19. (C) Opposition National Assembly deputy Leopoldo Martinez is less sure. Martinez told poloff February 13 that he doubted the success of the February 14 march. People might go to Plaza Venezuela to get their signature, but not toward the CNE for fear of violence. He said the Avenida Bolivar meat market spoils their plans. Alternate routes are also dangerous and all empty out at Plaza Caracas, where pro-Chavez activists are waiting. -------------- Sporadic Protests Turn Violent -------------- ¶20. (U) Various opposition street protests broke out on the evening of February 12 in cities across the country in the wake of the announcement of the National Electoral Council (CNE) to postpone a decision to schedule a recall referendum on the rule of President Hugo Chavez (reftel). Several protests were directed specifically against regional offices of the CNE. A national student coordinating group is apparently organizing protests against the CNE, with protests fueled by student groups launched in Anzoategui, Trujillo, Merida and Valencia. In some cases, confrontations between protesters and security forces turned violent. In Merida, a protest near the University of Los Andes sparked confrontations with local police that shut down businesses and blocked traffic throughout the day. A truce was reached between student leaders and police late in the afternoon, but street violence erupted again by the evening, eventually broken up by police with tear gas and rubber pellets. Twenty-five protesters were reported injured, among them a journalist. In Valencia, protesters near the Technical University confronted police in response to the arrest of eight student leaders. Several buses were set ablaze and university buildings were ransacked over the course of the evening. ¶21. (U) Unrest broke out in several state capitals February 12, resulting in injuries and detentions, but no deaths. The most heated protest occurred in Merida, where three student demonstrators and one press photographer, Victor Serra, were injured by rubber bullets or tear gas. In Valencia, Carabobo state, students briefly held hostages and seized two vehicles. A standoff between opposition and GOV supporters in Anzoategui state occurred outside the local CNE branch office. GOV supporters also allegedly attacked the Social Christian (COPEI) headquarters in Aragua state. ¶22. (U) The original purpose for most of the marches was to celebrate the Day of Youth, when students joined in a battle against colonial Spain. Some students were protesting arrest of student leaders accused of rebellion for the evenets in April 2002. However, the marches took on political significance following the CNE's decision to review signature forms. A majority of the demonstrators were students, joined by political parties and civic groups. -------------- GoV Denies Violent Demonstrations Took Place -------------- ¶23. (U) Vice-President Rangel dismissed the February 12 demonstrations as staged events, perpetrated by the opposition-controlled media. He claimed the opposition was panicking because it realizes it doesn't have enough signatures to convoke a presidential recall referendum. -------------- GoV Orders Heliport Closed -------------- ¶24. (U) The Avila Heliport, the principal launching site for helicopters run by private media organizations in Caracas, was ordered closed February 14 by the GoV's Ministry of Infrastructure. The last time the GoV closed the heliport was during the opposition's exercise to collect signatures seeking a recall referendum. SHAPIRO NNNN 2004CARACA00552 - CONFIDENTIAL