COPEI ON THE ROPES

C O N F I D E N T I A L CARACAS 003855 SIPDIS NSC FOR CBARTON HQSOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/22/2014 TAGS: PGOV KDEM VE SUBJECT: COPEI ON THE ROPES Classified By: A/DCM ABELARDO A. ARIAS FOR 1.4 (D) -------------- Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) Venezuela's Christian Democratic party (Copei) agreed to restructure during party federal council and general assembly meetings December 8-9. Frustrated with Copei's refusal to cede leadership space at the national level and failure to share funds, the leadership of the Copei youth wing offered resignations and asked that the party executive follow suit. Copei president Eduardo Fernandez offered his resignation (refused by the party) in solidarity with the movement. The agreement to reorganize appeased Copei youth wing national secretary Raul Chirinos, although Chirinos described the process as too slow. The youth movement is prudent to worry about the future viability of Copei, but neither its proposals nor the party leadership's hand-wringing and foot-dragging will serve to prepare the declining party for next year's legislative elections. End summary. ¶2. (C) During party federal council and general assembly meetings during December 8-9, Venezuela's Christian Democrats (Copei) agreed to begin to reorganize the party and its leadership. Copei announced that an executive board headed by party president Eduardo Fernandez, secretary general Cesar Perez Vivas, and nine other members would oversee the restructuring. The party also agreed to name committees charged with internal dialog, statutory reform, platform revision, and political alliances. According to Copei officials, the party will meet again in January-February to discuss proposed changes. Copei national coordinator of organization Luis Ignacio Planas told poloff the party is also considering scrapping its dual president/secretary general leadership structure in favor of a single, more clearly defined leader. He mentioned that Fernandez enjoyed the support of over 90 percent of the party, while less than half the party backed Perez Vivas. -------------- Angry Youth -------------- ¶3. (C) Copei called the meetings partly at the behest of the party's youth wing, whose leadership offered its resignations as an example to the party executive to surrender positions to those who better reflect the party "base." A visibly angry Raul Chirinos, the national secretary of the Copei youth, told poloff before the meetings SIPDIS that the party leadership benefited from his movement politically but refused to reciprocate with either positions or resources. Chirinos singled out former Miranda governor and Coordinadora Democratica leader Enrique Mendoza for failing to provide one million bolivars (approximately USD 500) that he had promised the youth wing. (NOTE: Mendoza maintains distance from the Copei party structure.) ¶4. (C) Chirinos was not optimistic about his ability to promote leadership change, saying the old guard probably would not be willing to step down until after the 2005 legislative elections. He said the about 30,000 Copei youth would consider walking if the party leadership was not accommodating, although he downplayed the influence of the youth movement in the party. Fernandez also offered his resignation (rejected by the party) as an effort to promote party restructuring, but Perez Vivas told the press that he would not resign as secretary general because the party "base" already trusted him. He added that he did not view the "33- or 34-year old" Chirinos as the leader of Copei youth. -------------- New Urgency Confronts Old Apathy -------------- ¶5. (C) Chirinos told poloff on December 13 he remained dissatisfied with the pace of change. According to press, Chirinos advocates realignment with parties of similar ideology, and he told poloff he hoped to bring former President Rafael Caldera's family and former Governors Henrique Salas Feo (Proyecto Venezuela) and Eduardo Lapi (Convergencia) back into the Christian Democratic fold. The youth leader avowed that an alternative to President Hugo Chavez would emerge one way or another and would "run over" the current opposition if it refused to change. During a December 14 meeting with poloff, party executives--more concerned with recounting the administration's abuses--seemed unfazed about the prospect of being "overrun." Asked if they had been talking with other opposition parties, the Copei officials merely mentioned eating lunch recently with old friends from Primero Justicia. -------------- Comment -------------- ¶6. (C) For the near term, an agreement to restructure and to discuss proposed changes in February appears to have appeased Chirinos, but the youth movement's concerns about the party's uncertain future are warranted. With legislative elections that could relegate Copei to Venezuelan electoral history less than a year away, Copei can ill afford a lengthy period of self-reflection. Now scrapping for funds, Copei is a network of friends and families whose politicians lack public support and whose political base has been gradually emigrating from Venezuela. Digging up discredited fossils such as former President Caldera and figures like Salas Feo, however, would hardly offer life support to a party that needs above all to shed its "oligarchic" image, which Chavez so successfully exploits. Brownfield NNNN 2004CARACA03855 - CONFIDENTIAL