RED MAP IN VENEZUELA: WHAT CHAVEZ WON IN THE

C O N F I D E N T I A L CARACAS 003432 SIPDIS NSC FOR CBARTON USCINCSO ALSO FOR POLAD STATE PASS USAID FOR DCHA/OTI E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/04/2014 TAGS: PGOV KDEM PHUM VE SUBJECT: RED MAP IN VENEZUELA: WHAT CHAVEZ WON IN THE REGIONALS REF: CARACAS 03382 Classified By: Abelardo A. Arias, Political Counselor, for Reasons 1.4(b). -------------- Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) Pro-Chavez mayors won 270 of 337 municipalities in the October 31 regional elections, up from the previously held ¶115. The National Electoral Council settled the one remaining dispute in the governors' races November 4, giving the victory to the pro-Chavez challenger in Carabobo State. International observers, largely from electoral authorities in the region, issued a statement calling the elections transparent and trustworthy and praising the automated voting system. The GOV called its win "a consolidation of democracy," while opponents warned that President Hugo Chavez now controls most political institutions in Venezuela. Zulia State Governor Manuel Rosales, one of two opposition Governors elected, is likely to increase his visibility as a principal opposition leader. End Summary. -------------- Chavismo Takes Lion's Share of Mayoralties -------------- ¶2. (U) Pro-Chavez candidates won 270 of 337 mayoralties (including the Caracas federal district) in the October 31 regional elections (ref),according to preliminary results from the National Electoral Council (CNE). The Chavista sweep is a net gain of 155 mayoralties. Accion Democratica candidates reportedly won 50 mayoralties, with Primero Justicia (PJ) finishing a very distant third with three mayoralties. PJ candidate in Sucre Municipality in Caracas Carlos Ocariz, who had rejected the preliminary CNE results, conceded to incumbent Mayor Jose Vicente Rangel Avalos, the son of Vice President Jose Vicente Rangel. Despite being declared the loser initially by the CNE, pro-Chavez Maracaibo Mayor Giancarlo DiMartino was proclaimed the winner after all the tally sheets were considered. -------------- Opposition Governors Drop Challenges -------------- ¶3. (C) Miranda State Governor Enrique Mendoza, the head of the Coordinadora Democratica, conceded his defeat to Fifth Republic Movement (MVR) candidate Diosdado Cabello November ¶3. Mendoza's aides told poloff November 2 their own tabulation of the tally sheets gave the victory to Cabello by 18,000 votes. The failure of Accion Democratica poll workers to provide copies of the tally sheets hindered their tabulation of results to present a challenge. They conceded, nonetheless, that the information indicated Mendoza had lost. ¶4. (C) For Carabobo State, the CNE proclaimed pro-Chavez challenger Luis Felipe Acosta Carles the winner November 4. Incumbent Henrique Salas Feo challenged the initial results prepared by the local electoral authorities. The dispute led to an agreement by CNE director Jorge Rodriguez to review and re-count of the tally sheets November 3. When Salas Feo complained that the CNE was not abiding by the agreement, Rodriguez and CNE President Francisco Carrasquero called him a liar, told reporters that CNE regulations do not allow for the actions Salas Feo claimed were needed to settle the dispute and refuted the incumbent's claims. Rodriguez proclaimed Acosta Carles the winner of the election. Two hours later, the Electoral Chamber of the Supreme Court rejected Salas' petition to stay the results based on alleged procedural violations. Movement to Socialism (MAS) Secretary General Leopoldo Puchi told poloff November 3 he thought some of Salas' arguments were without merit and an attempt to raise doubts about the announced results. ¶5. (C) In Yaracuy State, one of the closest of the gubernatorial races, incumbent Eduardo Lapi also conceded on November 3. Prior to his concession, the National Guard took over the Governor's Palace to ensure the change in office. Lapi had challenged the CNE's results announced November 1, saying they were based on too small a sample of returns. He conceded after the local electoral board proclaimed his rival from Chavez's Fifth Republic Movement, Carlos Jimenez, the winner. -------------- Undisclosed International Observers Back CNE -------------- ¶6. (C) A group of international observers convoked by the CNE November 1 praised the transparency and pacific nature of the elections. The statement purports to be the consensus view of electoral officials from the region, the Andean Parliament, and local diplomats. The statement specifically notes that the automated voting system, attacked by the opposition for fraud after the August 15 presidential recall referendum, is an "important advance in the level of confidence and control of the results." The CNE invited the observers just days before the election. In Caracas, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs circulated a note to all embassies and diplomatic missions inviting Ambassadors to participate. We did not respond. The EU ambassadors discussed the invitation, according to an official at the British Embassy, but declined due to the late hour of the invitation and lack of minimum conditions to mount a credible observation mission. The Mexican DCM participated in the observation but refused to join the statement due to concerns that the observers did not have sufficient access to truly pass judgment on the elections. (Note: It was for similar reasons that the EU did not observe the presidential recall referendum.) -------------- Comment -------------- ¶7. (C) In addition to the five branches of the GOV, President Hugo Chavez now has control of nearly all state and 80% of local governments. GOV domination of the regions raises questions about the future health of decentralized and pluralistic government in Venezuela. This is a devastating loss of political space for Chavez opponents, who make up at least 40 percent of the Venezuelan electorate. Rosales appears to be the last man standing in the opposition, but he is a regional star with baggage from his AD roots as well as from his apparent support of the short-lived administration of Pedro Carmona during the April 2002 coup. He may, in fact, be the perfect candidate for Chavez to beat in the 2006 elections. For the MVR, with overwhelming control of the government will come increased responsibility and the need to satisfy voters. 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