COORDINADORA LOSES SOME LESSER LIGHTS

C O N F I D E N T I A L CARACAS 003013 SIPDIS NSC FOR CBARTON USCINCSO ALSO FOR POLAD STATE PASS USAID FOR DCHA/OTI E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/24/2014 TAGS: PGOV KDEM PHUM VE SUBJECT: COORDINADORA LOSES SOME LESSER LIGHTS Classified By: Abelardo A. Arias, Political Counselor, for Reasons 1.4(d). -------------- Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) Five groups nominally associated with the Venezuelan opposition -- including political parties Alianza Bravo Pueblo and Causa R -- announced their separation from the Coordinadora Democratica on September 21. The groups criticized the Coordinadora's handling of the referendum campaign and its apparent willingness to participate in the October 31 regional elections without changes to the electoral process. Separately, opposition governors and mayors formed a new committee to take over management of the regional elections campaign. These are natural, tactical moves based on opposition groups' relative readiness for the elections. End summary. -------------- Minor Groups Leave The Coordinadora -------------- ¶2. (U) Several opposition political parties, NGOs, and individuals announced on September 21 their separation from the Coordinadora Democratica. They asserted the Coordinadora is sending the mixed message that opponents of President Hugo Chavez should proceed to the October 31 regional elections even though the National Electoral Council (CNE) has not made changes to the electoral process that the Coordinadora denounced as fraudulent. Alianza Bravo Pueblo (ABP),Causa R, Un Solo Pueblo (headed by William Ojeda),Vision Emergente (an NGO led by Cipriano Heredia),Fuerza Liberal (an NGO headed by Haydee Deutsch),Rafael Alfonso (an opposition businessman),Oswaldo Alvarez_ Paz (former foreign minister),and Carlos Blanco (a political analyst) all withdrew their support from the Coordinadora, according to press reports. ABP President Antonio Ledezma said the opposition should not participate in the regional elections without guarantees of the transparency of the process. ¶3. (C) Causa R leader Andres Velazquez said the time of the Coordinadora had passed with the August 15 recall referendum. Velazquez said the Coordinadora failed to catch the CNE's fraud during the referendum and has done nothing to improve conditions for the next elections. He told poloff September 22 he is in discussion with several parties about a new movement to be formed after the regional elections "that will offer Venezuelans a new alternative" from the current political context. Velazquez predicted a crippling defeat for the opposition in the regional elections. -------------- Governors and Mayors Pick Up The Baton -------------- ¶4. (U) Opposition governors and mayors announced September 22 the formation of an electoral committee to manage the regional elections and negotiate conditions with the CNE. Yaracuy state Governor Eduardo Lapi described the opposition governors and mayors as "generals with the troops for this battle" and boasted of a decisive win for opposition candidates. Lapi announced that he will coordinate the committee, joined by Zulia state Governor Manuel Rosales and Metropolitan Caracas Mayor Alfredo Pena. Lapi, a former COPEI member now with Convergencia, said the major opposition parties support the formation of the committee. ¶5. (U) Notably absent from the group was Carabobo state Governor Henrique Salas Feo (Proyecto Venezuela) and Anzoategui Governor David de Lima (formerly with the Movement to Socialism, MAS),the latter of whom is embroiled in a high profile dispute over public finances in his state. Coordinadora leader and Miranda state Governor Enrique Mendoza was present for the announcement and made brief remarks in support of the new committee. Lapi said the committee will take over CNE negotiations from the Coordinadora, which will focus on documenting the fraud allegations surrounding the recall referendum. -------------- Comment -------------- ¶6. (C) These developments are tactical responses to the opposition's basic dilemma: How can Venezuelans participate in elections they know to be unfair in the light of the August 15 "fraud?" Ledezma and company are minor political groups with no real prospects in the elections. Ledezma had, in fact, left the Coordinadora prior to the signature appeals process in May and was not invited back. Velazquez has only nominally associated himself with the Coordinadora, depending on the political winds. Regarding the new campaign committee, it is reasonable that the opposition governors and mayors take center stage in managing their own elections. These elected leaders have been meeting regularly for several months to discuss common issues and seem to work well together. The new committee, at least, will spell the opposition's battle-worn leadership. The committee faces a tall task, however, in beating the well organized and relatively more unified forces of Chavismo. Brownfield NNNN 2004CARACA03013 - CONFIDENTIAL