VENEZUELAN REGIONAL ELECTIONS: WHAT SHOULD BE AND

C O N F I D E N T I A L CARACAS 002885 SIPDIS NSC FOR CBARTON USCINCSO ALSO FOR POLAD STATE PASS USAID FOR DCHA/OTI E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/10/2014 TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM KDEM VE SUBJECT: VENEZUELAN REGIONAL ELECTIONS: WHAT SHOULD BE AND WHAT IS Classified By: Abelardo A. Arias, Political Counselor, for Reason 1.5(d) -------------- Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) Venezuela's gubernatorial, mayoral, and regional deputy elections, scheduled for October 31, are cloaked in uncertainty with little more than six weeks before the date. Procedurally, there are questions regarding who the members of the regional and municipal electoral boards will be, if these local boards will tally and announce the results as the law provides, how many new members of voting tables will be assigned, and if the Electoral Registry will be opened to the voters for changes and corrections. With allegations of fraud and irregularities involving the August 15 referendum still in the open, opposition participation remains uncertain. End Summary. -------------- The Timeline and the Reality -------------- ¶2. (C) The National Electoral Council (CNE) announced gubernatorial, mayoral, and regional deputy elections are scheduled for October 31 and released a timeline leading up to the elections. The CNE is currently discussing where, how, and by whom the votes will be tallied, according to Diego Acevedo, an assistant in the office of CNE Director Sobella Mejias. There is no guarantee, he said, that the tally will be done by the regional and municipal boards as the law provides. These local boards are also to check and certify the electronic voting machines. However, there has been controversy surrounding the local boards since the CNE removed some of their members for having signed the petitions for the recall of President Hugo Chavez. The CNE replaced them with "unbiased" representatives before the August 15 referendum, effectively giving Chavez supporters control of the regional boards. While opposition candidates are calling for the reinstitution of equitable regional and municipal boards before the regional elections, Acevedo said it was unlikely the CNE would remove the most recently appointed board members. ¶3. (U) Between September 20-21, the CNE also is to appoint poll workers. On September 2, CNE Director Jorge Rodriguez said the CNE would consider doubling the number of electoral tables from 12,000 to 24,000. Rodriguez also noted that the creation of new voting centers was under discussion. Doubling the voting tables would mean appointing 60,000 new poll workers (5 members per voting table) before the regional elections. ¶4. (C) The CNE is scheduled to publish the electoral register between September 14-16. According to Diego Acevedo, the CNE has not determined if the electoral register will be opened for registered voters to correct or update their information, including the disputed additions to the electoral registry and voting center transfers before the August 15 referendum. The Register, however, was open from September 4-8 for persons who recently became of voting age (18) to register and for voters who were unintentionally eliminated to file a complaint. -------------- Testing, Testing -------------- ¶5. (U) On October 3, a voting simulation is scheduled to test the automatic voting machines and the transmission of data from the voting centers to the totalization centers. There also is to be a test of the totalization and telecommunications programs from October 8-12. The CNE already conducted a voting simulation September 3 to determine the amount of time it would take each voter to vote with the automatic touch screens. According to the Minister of Communication and Information, Andres Izarra, the delay time is up to eight minutes because of the complexity of the voting and the number of possible candidates. -------------- Unanswered Questions For The Opposition -------------- ¶6. (C) With allegations of fraud and irregularities involving the August 15 referendum still in the open and significant changes to the electoral process unlikely, opposition participation remains uncertain. Acevedo also said the Coordinadora's inability to unite and form one list of demands for the CNE was a weakness the CNE would take advantage of by acquiescing to the most inconsequential proposals from the "laundry list". Some of the various demands from the political parties and NGOs that form the Coordinadora are a complete audit of the Electoral Registry, a total manual count, the elimination of blank voting notebooks, equally constituted regional and electoral boards, the reinstitution of the voting table members who were removed (up to 18,000),the auditing of software and hardware for the electronic voting machines, and a public audit of the voting results. -------------- Chavista Outlook -------------- ¶7. (C) Chavez's Movimiento Quinta Repulica (MVR) has objected to the October 31 regional election date, proposing regional elections for October 10 instead. According to Acevedo, this minor disagreement is being used as a smokescreen to show CNE decisions are not always partial to Chavez. MVR Deputy William Lara said if the date was not changed to October 10, the MVR candidates would still win on October 31. Lara also said the MVR was closer to achieving unity for the regional elections and that sustained efforts and dialogue would produce visible results within a month. He noted, however, that in some municipalities the MVR would not be able to achieve complete unity, but reiterated that alternate "revolutionary" candidates would be "self-excluding" themselves by challenging Chavez's chosen candidate. Lara was referring to MVR Deputy Desiree Santos' statements to the press that the candidates Chavez supported were chosen by the electoral base, and not simply appointed, so candidates running against them would be "self-excluded." -------------- Comment -------------- ¶8. (C) The National Electoral Council (CNE) has demonstrated that strict adherence to the electoral laws is not the norm in Venezuela. Improvization on rules and regulations will likely continue to mark the preparations for the regional elections. The opposition is facing unfavorable terms like biased regional and municipal boards with little hope of achieving significant changes in the electoral process before the regional elections. The traditional opposition voters are disillusioned and many are not likely to vote under current electoral conditions. To stay alive in the regional elections, the opposition needs to unify competing candidates and motivate its electoral base. Brownfield NNNN 2004CARACA02885 - CONFIDENTIAL