VENEZUELA'S COORDINADORA DEMOCRATICA AT A

C O N F I D E N T I A L CARACAS 002817 SIPDIS NSC FOR CBARTON USCINCSO ALSO FOR POLAD STATE PASS USAID FOR DCHA/OTI E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/06/2014 TAGS: PGOV KDEM PHUM VE SUBJECT: VENEZUELA'S COORDINADORA DEMOCRATICA AT A CROSSROADS Classified By: Abelardo A. Arias, Political Counselor, for Reasons 1.4 (d). -------------- Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) Venezuela's Coordinadora Democratica is hobbling after its defeat in the presidential recall referendum August 15. Some Chavez opponents blame the Coordinadora's leadership for either losing the referendum via an inept campaign or for not preventing the alleged fraud. The dozens of opposition political parties and NGOs are split also over the fraud allegations and on how to proceed to the regional elections scheduled for October 31. Another immediate concern is how to keep disillusioned anti-Chavez voters interested in electoral politics. Further along, the Coordinadora faces the challenges of restructuring and maintaining unity among political parties and NGOs, a situation which will be greatly affected by how the regional elections play out. End summary. -------------- Coordinadora Turns On Itself -------------- ¶2. (C) Since the victory of President Hugo Chavez in the August 15 recall referendum, the opposition Coordinadora Democratica has suffered from lack of leadership and internal squabbling. Union Party Secretary General Luis Manuel Esculpi September 1 described the Coordinadora as representative of the Venezuelan opposition, with some believing Chavez beat them legitimately and others believing he used massive fraud to steal the election. Either way, said Esculpi, the effect is a political defeat for the opposition and, thus, the Coordinadora. Noticeably absent has been Miranda State Governor Enrique Mendoza, head of the Coordinadora, who is reportedly dedicating much of his time to his own re-election campaign. The Coordinadora continues to operate, Esculpi said, but with few important meetings. The campaign committee, for example, has not met since just after the referendum. ¶3. (C) Leonardo Carvajal, leader of the NGO Education Assembly, told poloff September 2 he had resigned from the political committee (though his organization remains a Coordinadora member) in protest of Mendoza's leadership. Carvajal said senior Coordinadora representatives in the run up to the election had ceased to consult with the political committee. Both Carvajal and Esculpi asserted that Mendoza had become increasingly closed off before the referendum, putting his people in charge of key areas and not disseminating information. Jose Luis Mejias, Secretary General of Primero Justicia, told poloff September 3 that Mendoza "collapsed" psychologically when he learned that Chavez had won. Carvajal said Mendoza offered his resignation to the political committee on August 16, which the majority of the committee rejected. Carvajal, believing Mendoza's continued leadership to be an error, withdrew from the political committee. ¶4. (C) Carvajal, among others, also complained that the Coordinadora's negotiators at the National Electoral Council (CNE) accepted the terms of the CNE's first audit of voting machines that later proved to be fundamentally flawed. Movement to Socialism (MAS) Secretary General Felipe Mujica, one of the negotiators, contradicted Carvajal to poloff August 31, noting the opposition's only leverage in its dealings with the CNE was to withdraw from the referendum, which was not a politically viable option. -------------- GOV Kicks 'Em When They're Down -------------- ¶5. (C) The GOV has also circled in on the wounded opposition. President Chavez declared on August 22 he no longer recognizes the Coordinadora as the legitimate representatives of the opposition, adding that it is past time the Coordinadora "disappear from the face of the earth." Vice President Jose Vicente Rangel reiterated this line on September 6, saying that the Coordinadora is dead and deserves a "good Christian burial." Numerous pro-Chavez politicians have conditioned negotiations between Chavez opponents and the GOV on the unconditional acceptance of the referendum results. Mujica told poloff the GoV's non-recognition policy is nothing more than a ploy to keep the opposition from negotiating acceptable terms for the October 31 regional elections. -------------- Fraud and Elections Loom Large -------------- ¶6. (C) Though shaken, the Coordinadora focused on making its case that the GOV rigged the referendum and pressing for acceptable conditions with the CNE for the regional elections. A Coordinadora committee headed by constitutional lawyer Tulio Alvarez will formally contest the CNE's certification of the referendum results, using comprehensive documentation of allegations of irregularities, bias and fraud. Esculpi said the Alvarez report would be useful for highlighting vulnerabilities of the electoral process that the CNE should resolve before the opposition agrees to participate. Mejias said the report would be convincing, but he said he was not sure where it would lead the opposition politically. Mejias complained there were too many "heads with no bodies" within the Coordinadora, making decisions difficult. Both Carvajal and Mejias are wary of the opposition's chances in the elections, warning that abstention among anti-Chavez voters will be high due to suspicions about the CNE's handling of the electoral process. -------------- Whither the Opposition? -------------- ¶7. (C) Mejias said opposition groups would have to wait until after the regional elections to determine the fate of the Coordinadora. Fresh from elections, Mejias said, the political parties will have a better sense of their relative strengths and, therefore, of the possible makeup of a new opposition coordinating entity. Esculpi said he had consulted with center-left parties on the possibility of forming a new political alliance for the 2006 presidential race. ¶8. (C) Juan Fernandez, leader of the NGO Gente de Petroleo, told poloff September 3 he had been holding town hall meetings with his membership throughout Venezuela to discuss his organization's post-referendum strategy. Fernandez, a member of the Coordinadora's campaign committee, said he had received harsh criticism from some members over the Coordinadora's handling of the referendum and its aftermath. Fernandez noted that opposition parties are not clearing the air with their supporters as he is doing, and predicted that it will cause parties to lose in the regional elections. -------------- Comment -------------- ¶9. (C) The Coordinadora is effectively rudderless and in need of re-invention. Rather than attempting to salvage what grew to be a defined organization that took diverse opponents of Chavez through 18 months of electoral hurdles, Coordinadora members are choosing to shoot their own wounded. The upcoming regional elections serve to intensify each party's focus on its own fortunes. The GOV has also done its best to ease the passing of the Coordinadora into the political afterlife. But it may be too soon to write it off the Coordinadora. The fraud report is an important step by the opposition to buck up supporters and, though more difficult, to prove to them and to others that Chavez stole the election. The Coordinadora's future depends on its member groups, and on whether they can come back from their political defeat, and to the extent to which they can find common purpose. A key test will be whether opposition parties can agree on unified candidacies in the regional elections so as to increase the opposition's ability to defeat Chavista opponents. Brownfield NNNN 2004CARACA02817 - CONFIDENTIAL