VENEZUELA MACROECONOMIC UPDATE

UNCLAS CARACAS 002728 SIPDIS STATE FOR WHA/AND, WHA/EPSC, EB TREASURY FOR OASIA - GIANLUCA SIGNORELLI USCINCSO FOR POLAD E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: ECON EFIN PGOV VE SUBJECT: VENEZUELA MACROECONOMIC UPDATE -------------- OVERVIEW -------------- ¶1. (U) Venezuela's most recently published economic indicators illustrate an economic rebound based on increasing government expenditures. Levels of new foreign direct investment remain low. A strong international reserves position and high average oil prices have contributed to reduce the country risk and facilitated the partial public external debt refinancing. -------------- ECONOMIC GROWTH -------------- ¶2. (U) Total GDP increased by 23.1 percent in real terms during the period January-June of 2004 compared with the levels of economic activity registered during the same period of the previous year. This is explained by depressed activity during the first quarter of 2003 because of the general strike that took place during December 2002-January ¶2003. Nonetheless, GDP growth for 2004 could be more than 10 percent, driven by the increase in 2004 public expenditures. The Ministry of Finance is now predicting 2004 GDP growth of 12 percent. REAL GDP GROWTH RATE (PERCENTAGE) -------------- OIL NON-OIL TOTAL 1994 4.6 (4.5) (2.8) 1995 7.1 2.5 4.0 1996 7.7 (2.5) (0.2) 1997 9.4 4.2 6.4 1998 2.0 (0.9) 0.2 1999 (7.4) (5.4) (6.1) 2000 3.2 3.0 3.2 2001 (0.9) 4.0 2.8 2002 (14.2) (6.0) (8.9) 2003 (2.1) (8.1) (7.6) 2004 (JAN-JUN) (1) 28.5 20.7 23.1 (1) Preliminary figures SOURCE: Central Bank of Venezuela. -------------- UNEMPLOYMENT -------------- ¶3. (U) First semester 2004 figures from the National Institute of Statistics (INE) indicate an average unemployment rate of 16.6 percent. This figure represents 2.00 million unemployed out of a labor force of 12.04 million, and a total population of 25.86 million. INE's figures are disputed by the private sector. According to Consecomercio (National Retail and Services Council, representing the trade and services sector),the real unemployment rate in Venezuela exceeds 20 percent and affects some 2.4 million. Shifts in the work force from the formal to the informal sector of the economy, which accounts for more than a half of the occupied working labor force, have mitigated unemployment to some extent. UNEMPLOYMENT (percentage in second semester) -------------- 1996 12.4 1997 10.6 1998 11.0 1999 14.5 2000 13.2 2001 12.8 2002 16.2 2003 16.8 2004 (first semester) 16.6 SOURCE: GOV National Institute of Statistics (INE). -------------- OIL PRODUCTION AND EXPORTS -------------- ¶4. (U) The total value of oil exports reached USD 15.05 billion during the first semester of 2004 with an average export price of USD 30.43 per barrel. Venezuela's OPEC production quota has been 2.99 million barrels a day since August 1, 2004. Venezuela's oil production has been below the quota, according to OPEC figures. Oil prices (Venezuelan basket) have been increasing during 2004, reaching a record high of USD 39.52 per barrel during the third week of August. OIL PRODUCTION AND EXPORTS (THOUSAND B/D) -------------- AVERAGE EXPORT PRICE EXPORTS PRODUCTION(2) EXPORTS (USD/B) (USD MILLION) 1996 2,984 2,752 18.4 18,523 1997 3,248 3,052 16.3 18,180 1998 3,279 3,116 10.6 12,111 1999 2,950 2,785 16.0 16,419 2000 3,060 2,791 25.9 27,884 2001 3,044 2,711 20.2 21,574 2002 2,567 2,432 22.0 21,530 2003 (3) 2,330 1,963 25.7 22,052 2004 (J-J) 2,516 2,149 30.4 15,049 (2) Crude oil, including condensates. (3) Preliminary figures. SOURCE: Central Bank of Venezuela, Ministry of Energy and Mines, OPEC, and private sector estimates. -------------- MONEY SUPPLY/M2 -------------- ¶5. (U) Monetary liquidity increased 57.5 percent during 2003, largely as a result of exchange controls. This is the highest annual increase of the money supply in the last six years. Most of the excess liquidity accumulated in the economy during these months was withdrawn by the BCV by allocating government bonds and certificates of deposits to domestic banks. Liquidity continued growing during the first half of 2004 as government expenditures increased. MONEY SUPPLY/M2 (4) MONETARY BASE -------------- -------------- End of: (million Bs.) Pct.Chg. (million Bs.) Pct.Chg. 1996 5,493,813 55.4 1,675,799 92.1 1997 8,956,161 63.0 3,004,685 79.3 1998 10,621,645 18.6 3,717,323 23.7 1999 12,740,836 20.0 4,909,822 32.1 2000 16,284,578 27.8 5,790,841 17.9 2001 16,976,364 4.2 6,478,295 11.9 2002 19,573,369 15.3 7,701,120 18.9 2003 30,835,975 57.5 11,274,439 46.4 2004 (5) JAN 30,279,535 (1.8) 10,752,425 (4.6) FEB 31,815,818 5.1 10,762,152 0.1 MAR 32,311,341 1.6 13,219,845 22.8 APR 31,934,539 (1.2) 11,049,744 (16.4) MAY 32,962,043 3.2 11,291,538 2.2 JUN 34,237,954 3.9 11,994,271 6.2 (4) M2 includes currency, demand deposits, savings and certificates of deposit. (5) Preliminary figures. SOURCE: Central Bank of Venezuela. -------------- CONSUMER PRICE INDEX -------------- ¶6. (U) The Central Bank of Venezuela (BCV) reported that consumer prices for the Caracas metropolitan area rose 21.8 percent from July 2003 to July 2004. Consumer prices lagged producer prices, however, as wholesale prices increased by 30.6 percent during the same period. (Note: The GOV imposed price controls February 11, 2003 on some primary food items, pharmaceuticals, and personal care products as a complement to the exchange control regime.) Core inflation removes the most volatile categories from the CPI. CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (1997 AVG 100) and CORE INFLATION -------------- -------------- END OF PERIOD PCT CHANGE CORE INFLATION ( change) 1996 84.6 103.2 N/A 1997 116.5 37.6 N/A 1998 151.3 29.9 N/A 1999 181.6 20.0 N/A 2000 206.0 13.4 12.8 2001 231.3 12.3 11.3 2002 303.5 31.2 31.2 2003 385.7 27.1 37.9 2004 JAN 395.4 2.5 1.7 FEB 401.6 1.6 2.6 MAR 410.2 2.1 3.6 APR 415.6 1.3 2.0 MAY 420.5 1.2 1.5 JUN 428.3 1.9 1.5 JUL 434.2 1.4 1.2 SOURCE: Central Bank of Venezuela. -------------- INTEREST RATES -------------- ¶7. (U) Interest rates reported by the Central Bank in 2004 continue the downward trend of 2003. Excess liquidity arising from the strict application of exchange controls was the most important cause of this trend. However, credit card consumption, mortgages, and car loan rates have been kept at levels that are more than double the average loan rate for most consumers. The spread between lending and deposit rates decreased from 6.59 percent in January 2004 to 5.55 percent in July 2004. AVERAGE INTEREST RATES OF THE SIX MOST IMPORTANT COMMERCIAL AND UNIVERSAL BANKS -------------- --- Loans Deposits -------------- -------------- Savings 90 days 1996 37.22 18.36 26.85 1997 22.16 6.84 14.62 1998 45.21 10.25 38.02 1999 31.89 7.05 18.90 2000 23.91 3.35 14.80 2001 25.64 2.40 14.13 2002 37.08 3.90 28.29 2003 24.05 6.17 17.58 2004 JAN 18.38 5.19 11.79 FEB 18.08 4.54 10.84 MAR 17.56 4.56 12.84 APR 17.97 4.56 12.46 MAY 17.68 4.43 13.11 JUN 17.08 4.33 12.75 JUL 17.22 4.17 11.67 SOURCE: Central Bank of Venezuela. -------------- EXCHANGE RATES AND BCV LIQUIDATIONS -------------- ¶8. (U) The exchange control system pegged the bolivar at 1,600/USD on February 5, 2003. One year later, on February 7, 2004, the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank devalued the Bolivar 20 percent, to 1,920.00. The National Exchange Control Administration (CADIVI) oversees all official foreign exchange transactions. With CADIVI not supplying enough foreign exchange to fully meet demand, and the exchange rate remaining fixed despite internal inflation, a parallel market, in which dollars are traded at a substantial premium, has developed. Official forex transaction, however, have increased dramatically in recent months. The parallel market exchange rate closed at around 2,800/USD by the middle of August 2004. END OF PERIOD EXCHANGE RATES (BS/USD) AND BCV LIQUIDATIONS -------------- -------------- OFFICIAL FOREX OFFICIAL MARKET PARALLEL MARKET LIQUIDATIONS (MILLIONS USD) -------------- -------------- -------------- 1996 476.50 1997 504.25 1998 564.50 1999 648.25 2000 699.75 2001 763.00 2002 1,401.25 2003 1,600.00 2,875.00 4,594.52 2004 JAN 1,600.00 3,076.11 943.36 FEB 1,920.00 3,240.04 779.36 MAR 1,920.00 3,083.54 891.95 APR 1,920.00 2,981.48 643.39 MAY 1,920.00 2,913.59 811.02 JUN 1,920.00 2,622.83 1,265.83 JUL 1,920.00 2,645.78 1,297.00 SOURCE: Central Bank of Venezuela, Metroeconomica, and Banco Provincial -------------- MERCHANDISE TRADE BALANCE -------------- ¶9. (U) Non-oil exports increased 45.8 percent during January-June 2004 compared with the same period of last year. (There were no exports during the general strike in January 2003.) According to the INE, exports of base metals (aluminum, steel, and others) accounted for 34.6 percent of total non-oil exports for the period January-May 2004, followed by mineral products (29.2 percent),and chemicals (14.7 percent). The United States was the largest recipient of Venezuela's non-oil exports (38.0 percent),followed by Colombia (12.1 percent),and Mexico (5.2 percent). Imports increased by 67.8 percent during January-June 2004 compared with the same period of last year. 2003 figures reflect the general strike of December 2002 - February 2003, and the fact that the approvals of foreign exchange during the first months of 2003, when exchange controls were put into place, were very slow. MERCHANDISE TRADE BALANCE (USD MILLION) -------------- January-June 2003 2003 2004(6) OIL EXPORTS (A) 22,052 9,353 15,049 NON-OIL EXPORTS (B) 4,809 2,068 3,016 TOTAL EXPORTS (C) 26,861 11,421 18,065 TOTAL IMPORTS (D) (10,341) (4,271) (7,168) MERCHANDISE TRADE BALANCE (C)-(D) 16,520 7,150 10,897 (6) Preliminary figures. SOURCE: Central Bank of Venezuela. -------------- BALANCE OF PAYMENTS -------------- ¶10. (U) Venezuela's balance of payments registered a surplus of USD 1.90 billion during the first semester of 2004, compared with a surplus of USD 2.65 billion during the same period of last year. Higher oil prices, exchange controls, and the resulting fall in imports and capital flights contributed to these results. BCV Director Armando Leon, in comments to the press on August 2, projected a balance of payments surplus of USD 6-7 billion for the whole year 2004 if oil prices do not decrease during the rest of the year. BALANCE OF PAYMENTS SUMMARY (USD MILLION) -------------- --- January-June 2003 2003 2004(7) CURRENT ACCOUNT (A) 11,524 4,581 7,086 EXPORTS, FOB 26,861 11,421 18,065 IMPORTS, FOB (10,341) (4,271) (7,168) TRADE BALANCE 16,520 7,150 10,897 NET SERVICES AND RENT (5,003) (2,557) (3,694) NET TRANSFERS 7 (12) (117) CAPITAL AND FINANCIAL ACCOUNT (B) (5,135) (936) (4,171) DIRECT INVESTMENT 1,338 1,490 640 PORTFOLIO INVESTMENT (1,348) (68) (41) OTHER INVESTMENT (5,125) (2,358) (4,770) NET ERRORS AND OMISSIONS (C) (946) (994) (1,013) OVERALL BALANCE (A)(B)(C) 5,443 2,651 1,902 (7) Preliminary figures. SOURCE: Central Bank of Venezuela. -------------- INTERNATIONAL RESERVES -------------- ¶11. (U) BCV-held international reserves increased nearly continuously after exchange controls were imposed in February 2003 until May 2004. PDVSA's sales of dollars to the Central Bank were suspended in order to direct oil revenues to a USD 2.0 billion Social Development Fund, the creation of which has been very controversial. The reserves dropped USD 2,509 million on August 2, after PDVSA completed the buyback of part of its external debt. INTERNATIONAL RESERVES (USD MILLIONS) -------------- BCV FIEM TOTAL 1996 DEC 15,229 - 15,229 1997 DEC 17,818 - 17,818 1998 DEC 14,849 - 14,849 1999 DEC 15,164 215 15,379 2000 DEC 15,883 4,588 20,471 2001 DEC 12,296 6,227 18,523 2002 DEC 12,003 2,857 14,860 2003 DEC 20,666 700 21,366 2004 JAN 21,623 701 22,324 FEB 21,929 702 22,631 MAR 22,560 702 23,262 APR 23,591 703 24,294 MAY 23,453 703 24,156 JUN 22,522 704 23,226 JUL 23,297 705 24,002 SOURCE: Central Bank of Venezuela. -------------- CENTRAL GOVERNMENT FINANCIAL RESULTS -------------- ¶12. (U) Total ordinary expenditures increased by 81.3 percent during the period January-May 2004 in comparison with the same period of last year. Increased spending during 2004 has continued the same trend of expansion initiated in mid-2003. This has been possible because of stronger oil prices, as well as higher collection of internal taxes. CENTRAL GOVERNMENT FINANCIAL RESULTS (TRILLIONS OF BOLIVARS) -------------- January-May 2002 2003 2004 TOTAL ORDINARY REVENUES 27.0 6.9 14.9 Oil income 15.5 3.1 6.8 Non-oil income 11.5 3.8 8.1 TOTAL ORDINARY EXPENDITURES 31.5 9.1 16.5 FISCAL DEFICIT (4.5) (2.2) (1.6) Sources: BCV and Metroeconomica -------------- PUBLIC SECTOR DEBT -------------- ¶13. (U) The government actively refinanced its domestic and external debts during 2003. Domestic bonds and treasury promissory notes dramatically increased both in the share of domestic banks' portfolio holdings and in the share of the GOV's debt. During March 2004, the Ministry of Finance allocated bonds for the equivalent of USD 3.0 billion, of which one third were USD denominated with maturity in six months, while the rest were in local currency with maturities in 2008, 2009, and 2010. PUBLIC SECTOR DEBT (USD BILLION) -------------- 2003 2004(8) FOREIGN DEBT 33.2 30.1 CENTRAL GOVERNMENT 23.0 22.8 RESTRUCTURED DEBT 5.8 5.7 NON-RESTRUCTURED DEBT 17.2 17.1 AGENCIES 1.2 1.2 PDVSA 9.0 6.1 DOMESTIC DEBT (9) 17.9 21.5 -------------- -------------- TOTAL PUBLIC SECTOR DEBT 51.1 51.6 (8) Projection. (9) Includes Central Bank debt. SOURCES: Ministry of Finance, Metroeconomica, and Santander Investment. -------------- BANKING SYSTEM -------------- ¶14. (U) Credit demand increased during the first semester of 2004 as a result of the rebound of the economy, although at a lower level than 2002. The percentage of past due loans decreased from December 2003 to June 2004. This figure has been decreasing since 2002 as banks have been cleaning up their credit portfolios, declaring more of the past due loans as outright losses. BANKING SYSTEM KEY INDICATORS (percentages) DEC 02 DEC 03 JUN 04 Past due loans/ gross loans 6.76 4.47 2.81 Credit portfolio allowance/ past due loans 132.64 179.50 206.39 Equity/total assets 16.08 14.44 14.45 Net financial margin/ average asset 5.32 6.19 7.01 Net financial margin/ average equity 35.65 43.95 52.87 Net loans/ total deposits 54.46 36.33 42.41 Source: SUDEBAN -------------- DIRECT FOREIGN INVESTMENT -------------- ¶15. (U) The Superintendency of Foreign Investments (SIEX) registered new direct foreign investment in the amount of USD 170.5 million during the period January-April 2004. Although the overall investment climate remains uncertain, there are sectors (particularly oil, gas, and communications) in which new investments are contemplated. DIRECT FOREIGN INVESTMENT (MILLIONS OF USD) -------------- 1996 1,114.4 1997 690.1 1998 1,583.8 (10) 1999 985.4 2000 642.9 2001 948.1 2002 297.0 2003 1,174.2 (11) 2004 JAN 55.2 FEB 47.0 MAR 24.4 APR 43.9 (10) Privatization of state steel company (SIDOR). (11) This high figure consists largely of investments in former state-owned telecoms giant CANTV, made in 1996, but for technical reasons only registered by the GOV in 2003. SOURCES: SIEX, CONAPRI, and Metroeconomica. -------------- CARACAS STOCK EXCHANGE INDEX -------------- ¶16. (U) The Caracas Stock Exchange (CSE) index closed at a record high of 28,595.46 on August 13, 2004, which was the working day just before the Presidential Referendum, increasing 28.8 percent from its close in December. A primary catalyst in this rise is the use of CSE shares to acquire American Depositary Receipts on the New York Stock Exchange that are then used as foreign exchange vehicles. However, the CSE has also benefited from the lack of other investment opportunities in the broader economy. CARACAS STOCK EXCHANGE CAPITALIZATION INDEX (DECEMBER 1993 = 1,000) -------------- 2002 2003 2004 JANUARY 6,293.89 8,286.65 27,956.14 FEBRUARY 6,958.39 8,509.56 27,484.76 MARCH 6,828.04 8,506.59 26,579.69 APRIL 6,712.57 8,631.60 25,879.34 MAY 7,422.64 12,799.62 25,405.73 JUNE 7,452.09 13,666.40 25,285.17 JULY 7,134.00 14,052.35 25,611.20 AUGUST 6,793.30 14,497.20 SEPTEMBER 7,447.71 16,956.29 OCTOBER 7,741.81 20,413.00 NOVEMBER 8,015.17 21,397.36 DECEMBER (12) 22,203.95 (12) The CSE was closed during December 2002 because of the general strike. SOURCE: Caracas Stock Exchange and Metroeconomica. -------------- INTERNET RESOURCES -------------- ¶17. INTERNET RESOURCES: AMEMBASSY CARACAS WEBSITE: www.embajadausa.org.ve - EXCHANGE RATES AND INTERNATIONAL RESERVES: www.bcv.org.ve - STOCK EXCHANGE: www.caracasstock.com - TRADE AND LABOR FORCE STATISTICS: www.ine.gov.ve - BUSINESS INFORMATION: www.venamcham.org - INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES: www.conapri.org - PETROLEUM INFORMATION: www.pdvsa.com, www.mem.gov.ve - PUBLIC FINANCE INFORMATION: www.mf.gov.ve - FINANCIAL INDICATORS: www.sudeban.gov.ve - ECONOMIC PUBLICATIONS: www.metroeconomica.com.ve, www.veneconomy.com, www.bancomercantil.com, www.provincial.com - NEWSPAPERS: www.eluniversal.com, www.el-nacional.com - LEGAL PUBLICATIONS: www.datalegis.com.ve, www.bpmaw.com, www.traviesoevans.com, www.tpa.com.ve - VENEZUELAN GOVERNMENT: www.venezuela.gov.ve, www.platino.gov.ve McFarland NNNN 2004CARACA02728 - UNCLASSIFIED