VENEZUELAN REFERENDUM UPDATE: AUGUST 13

C O N F I D E N T I A L CARACAS 002607 SIPDIS NSC FOR CBARTON USCINCSO ALSO FOR POLAD STATE PASS USAID FOR DCHA/OTI E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/03/2014 TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM KDEM VE OAS SUBJECT: VENEZUELAN REFERENDUM UPDATE: AUGUST 13 Classified By: Abelardo A. Arias, Political Counselor, for Reason 1.4(d) -------------- Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) As the campaigns for the Presidential recall referendum closed August 12, supporters and opponents of President Hugo Chavez celebrated, each claiming future victory. Chavez said he would extend dialog invitations to opposition leaders who accepted his victory and said he would step down if he lost. The National Electoral Council (CNE) will audit one percent of the voting machines chosen at random August 15 and limit observers' access to the vote tallying room. Patria Para Todos (PPT) Secretary General Jose Albornoz, who supports Chavez, told poloff August 13 that Chavez would win the referendum by 10 percentage points. Miranda State Governor Enrique Mendoza and Primero Justica President and assemblyman Julio Borges told the Ambassador they were confident the "Si" would win the referendum. With the referendum just a couple of days away, Chavez criticized the U.S. August 12, alleging a plot against him/Venezuela. He told reporters that the battle was between the Bush administration and the Venezuelan people. End Summary. -------------- Campaigns Close -------------- ¶2. (U) Hundreds of thousands of opponents of President Hugo Chavez marched down Caracas highways to attend the opposition Coordinadora Democratica campaign closing August 12. Smaller opposition gatherings occurred in four other states outside the capital. Chavez supporters also gathered to celebrate the end of the "No" campaign throughout Venezuela on August ¶12. In Caracas, President Hugo Chavez told supporters during his campaign closing remarks that he was confident he would win. He stated that on August 16, he would begin discussions with opposition leaders who were willing to acknowledge his victory. Vice-president Jose Vincente Rangel also told reporters that a dialog was possible beginning August 16 but noted that a dialog did not mean an agreement. Rangel made clear that while he was willing to listen to the opposition leaders' concerns, the dialog would not include any discussions about sharing power. President Chavez swore during his closing remarks that if he were to somehow lose the referendum, he would hand over the reins to VP Rangel, take a small vacation, and return to work after he was elected in the presidential election that would occur 30 days later. -------------- Private Media Faces Inspections -------------- ¶3. (U) The National Telecommunications Commission (Conatel) inspected four private television without warning August 13. Minister of Information Jesse Chacon, speaking from Miraflores Palace to reporters as the inspections were concluding, claimed the "routine and legal" inspections were intended to confirm satellite and microwave transmission frequencies because of the high demand for such frequencies expected during election weekend. When the inspections began, the Conatel personnel told reporters they were there only on a routine inspection. CNE director told Globovision that "only a fool (pendejo)" would believe that the inspections were not related to the referendum. ¶4. (U) Chacon said Conatel would monitor media transmissions during the election to ensure they stayed within their assigned frequencies. Globovision director Alberto Federico Ravell said the inspections were unusual coming only 48 hours before the referendum. Ravell also said it was a surprise for the visits to be unannounced since the media stations have been in contact with Conatel all week. The inspections were suspended, and the officials left abruptly without executing the proper legal paperwork. -------------- Information Minister Releases Polls -------------- ¶5. (U) Minister of Information Jesse Chacon told reporters August 13 that two polls showed Chavez winning the referendum. Chacon said a poll from McDonough firm in Washington showed an eight percent lead. A Seijas poll, he added, also gave the GoV reasons for celebration. Chacon noted it is against electoral law after the end of the campaign to release poll data, a detail he skirted with a grin by not giving exact figures. -------------- CNE Action -------------- ¶6. (U) The National Electoral Council (CNE) clarified the rules for the post-referendum audit, the role of the armed force's "Plan Republica", and the role of observers in the vote tallying room on August 12. The CNE agreed that a CNE auditing commission would audit 1% of the voting machines, to be chosen at random at 1 p.m. on August 15. After an Army General reportedly announced that military personnel would watch closely how people voted August 12, CNE vice-president Ezequiel Zamora reminded reporters the military working "Plan Republica" was not in charge of directing the voting process for the referendum and asked General Julio Quintero Viloria to distribute the electronic voting machines that were still located on military bases to legitimate voting centers. Zamora said "Plan Republica" was subject to the CNE's rules and decisions and could not interfere in the voting process. Zamora said "the CNE has the ultimate authority in electoral material" and "they (Plan Republica) should maintain sufficient distance from the voting machines". ¶7. (C) CNE director Oscar Battaglini said the role of the referendum observers had its limits, and the observers would not be allowed into the rooms where the votes were tallied during a meeting with 150 international observers on August ¶12. Organization of American States (OAS) mission leader Edgardo Ries told poloff August 10 the OAS had insisted in their written agreement on access to the totalization room, but the CNE demurred. Ries changed the text of the agreement to include access to "the totalization process." Ries said he expected to have observers in or around the totalization room when necessary. ¶8. (U) CNE President Francisco Carrasquero took time from his referendum work August 13 to participate in the presentation of an academic book he had written. Carrasquero told reporters he would address the nation (in "cadena") on Saturday night to assure Venezuelans the vote would take place without incident. Speaking to reporters afterwards, Carrasquero said that if the vote is close, results may not be ready to announce on August 15 and speculated that voting may continue until after midnight. -------------- Chavez Supporter Predicts Victory -------------- ¶9. (C) Patria Para Todos (PPT) Secretary General Jose Albornoz told poloff August 13 that Chavez would win the referendum by 10 percentage points. Albornoz said the opposition had committed several errors, especially on the regional level, during the campaign, and had changed focus three times. He said the first priority for the government would be to build "bridges of money" ("puentes de plata") to the defeated opposition. Albornoz hopes that AD would come to an understanding with the GoV to re-energize the National Assembly. -------------- Pollster's Viewpoint -------------- ¶10. (C) Consultant and pollster Alfredo Keller told poloff he was concerned about the high level of undecided voters that were showing up so close to voting day on August 12. While he admitted that most of the undecided voters favor the opposition, he was not sure that they would turn out to vote. He also pointed out that another way people hid their votes, in addition to saying they are undecided, is to lie altogether about their preferences. Keller was sanguine about the opposition's prospects in Zulia and Carabobo States, where there is only a nine percent difference between the opposition and government. -------------- Opposition Exudes Confidence -------------- ¶11. (C) The Ambassador had lunch with Enrique Mendoza, Alberto Quiros Corradi, Enrique Naime, Humberto Calderon Berti, Hiram Gaviria, Francisco Diez, Rabbi Pynchas Brener and various ambassadors August 13. The purpose of the Coordinadora Democratica event was to give the ambassadors an opportunity to talk to Mendoza. All opposition attendees were pleased with the campaign march August 12, saying that between 660,000 and 1 million people attended making it the largest march ever, even larger than April 11. Mendoza cited polls and tracking data on the rise at the expense of the "No" vote. Mendoza also asserted the vote is now 45.2% for "Si" and 42% for "No" with the rest undecided. ¶12. (C) Primero Justica (PJ) President and Deputy Julio Borges told the Ambassador August 13 he was confident Chavez would be recalled. Borges was concerned, however, that there was no understanding between the government and the opposition in the event there are technical difficulties or violence breaks out on August 15, which Borges feared was a possibility. The lack of dialog between the Chavez supporters and opposition leaders, Borges said, made Venezuelans more dependent on former President Jimmy Carter and the OAS to mediate and do so quickly if problems arise. Borges also said he was surprised by how close the polls say the votes are because it is not a reflection of what Primero Justicia has observed during their extensive campaigns throughout the country where they saw an overwhelming "Si" majority. Borges said that a higher voter turnout would favor Chavez and increase the risk of a technical system failure or violence. He noted that regardless of who wins the referendum, the country must be reunited, which means the winner must acknowledge the right of the losing side to exist and begin discussions. -------------- Chavez Criticizes the U.S. -------------- ¶13. (U) With the referendum just a couple of days away, Chavez criticized the U.S., its plot against him/Venezuela, and told reporters at a Miraflores Palace press conference on August 12 that the battle was between the Bush administration and the Venezuelan people. Chavez again accused the Bush administration of financing the opposition and intervening in Venezuela. Chavez criticized Secretary Powell saying that Powell had no right to lay conditions for the recognition of the results of the referendum. Chavez told his audience during the 4 hour press conference, "We do not expect much from Washington, and it doesn't really matter just to us, but rather the whole world, because that government (U.S.) has become the number one enemy of the world, number one." Shapiro NNNN 2004CARACA02607 - CONFIDENTIAL