VENEZUELA REFERENDUM UPDATE, AUGUST 12

C O N F I D E N T I A L CARACAS 002597

SIPDIS


NSC FOR CBARTON
USCINCSO ALSO FOR POLAD
STATE PASS USAID FOR DCHA/OTI

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/03/2014
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM KDEM VE OAS
SUBJECT: VENEZUELA REFERENDUM UPDATE, AUGUST 12

Classified By: Abelardo A. Arias, Political Counselor,
for Reason 1.5(d)

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Summary
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1. (C) National Electoral Council (CNE) director Jorge
Rodriguez made clear that the referendum campaign officially
closes at midnight August 12, as was initially decided by the
CNE, despite Chavez's Comando Maisanta's request to extend
the deadline so its campaign closing event could be held
August 13. The CNE approved the preliminary announcement on
August 15 of the results based on the automatic transmission
of the votes. Organization of American States (OAS) mission
leader Valter Pecly Moreira reiterated his confidence in the
secrecy of the vote and in the referendum preparation to the
Venezuelan press and separately to the Ambassador. The
Carter Center Director Jennifer McCoy also told reporters its
observation team was pleased with the process so far. CNE
director Rodriguez said that the second fingerprint machine
test finished August 11 had once again proven successful, but
opposition experts continue being doubtful. Venezuelan
religious leaders (Catholic, Jewish, and Protestant) issued a
joint call for Venezuelans to maintain the peace, vote and
respect the results of the August 15 referendum. President
Hugo Chavez's advisor for North America and an MVR deputy
told Poloffs the outlook for the election and afterwards was
good for Chavez. End summary.

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Campaign Closes
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2. (U) National Electoral Council (CNE) director Jorge
Rodriguez made clear that the referendum campaign officially
closes at midnight August 12, as was initially decided by the
CNE, despite Chavez's Comando Maisanta's request to extend
the deadline so its campaign closing event could be held
August 13. Instead, Comando Maisanta will hold various
closing events in every state throughout Venezuela consisting
of caravans and public gatherings. In Caracas, the "No"
caravan is scheduled to end with a public gathering in front
of Miraflores August 12 in the afternoon. The opposition
campaign closing event is also culminating in a march that
will gather on the public highway in Caracas. In the 48 hours
before the referendum, political parties are prohibited from
campaigning through the media, in the streets or by
distributing campaign material.

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Results to be Announced
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3. (U) The CNE approved the preliminary announcement on
August 15 of the results based on the automatic transmission
of the votes. CNE director Rodriguez explained that the
official results should be issued around August 19, after
12,351 voting acts are certified by the CNE. The results of
the voting acts signed by the president of the voting tables
will be compared to the electronically transmitted results
before being certified.

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OAS Representative Statements
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4. (U) Organization of American States (OAS) mission leader
Valter Pecly Moreira issued a statement reiterating his
confidence in the referendum preparation process until now
August 11. Pecly praised the technical audits, especially
those involving CANTV, calling them well done and
trustworthy. He noted that the OAS will not implement its
own quick count system nor announce results, but working
within the CNE regulations, OAS observers will make their own
evaluations hoping that the OAS results coincide with those

of the CNE. Pecly told reporters that he and the OAS mission
were convinced that the referendum vote was secret and would
remain so.


5. (C) Pecly told the Ambassador he was pleased with the
National Electoral Council's (CNE) performance, expressing
confidence in the technological systems on August 12. Pecly
described the environment as peaceful, mostly because both
sides are sure they are going to win. Pecly said the
opposition and pro-GOV CNE directors are working well
together in private, though are conflictive when speaking
publicly to please their constituencies. Pecly believed he
gained the trust of the CNE, and has been successful in a
number of areas, including pumping up the number of OAS
observers and getting the Carter Center observers all of
their credentials. The Ambassador noted the importance of
international observers to be ready when the polls closed to
support transparency in the process, lest delays in the vote
count lead to violence.

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Carter Center Observations
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6. (U) Seated with former Presidents Alfonsin and Carazo,
Carter Center Director Jennifer McCoy told reporters August
12 that the Carter Center mission has received the support
and access from the National Electoral Council (CNE) it needs
and that it has been satisfied with the process so far. She
said the Carter Center will deploy its observers in teams of
two to various Venezuelan states August 13 and will use
various mechanisms as they observer everything from the
opening to the closing of the polls and the transmitting of
results. McCoy said the Carter Center agrees with the CNE
rule not to announce any preliminary results or projections
before the first CNE bulletin is released. Likely, she said,
former Presidents Carter would give a press conference with
OAS Secretary General Gaviria August 16. Asked by a reporter
if the Carter Center believes the referendum will proceed in
a fair and transparent manner, McCoy said no one can give
guarantees, but that based on what the Carter Center has
observed thus far, it has confidence in the process.

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Worries Put to Rest
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7. (U) CNE director Rodriguez said that the second
fingerprint machine test finished August 11 had once again
proven successful. He announced that all the voting machines
are now programmed and should be delivered to the voting
centers August 12-13. Rodriguez reported a 40 second delay
between the time the first documents are presented for voting
and fingerprints are taken until the results are returned.
He told reporters this meant that more than 8 million people
could vote (8 million possible voters constitutes under 60%
of the total registered voters). The opposition's
Coordinadora Democratica telecommunication experts were not
present at the fingerprint machine tests August 11.
Coordinadora expert Luis Baez Duarte quarreled with
Rodriguez's conclusion, saying the test sample was too small.
Baez said the Coordinadora also objected to the millions
spend for the system.

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Religious Influence
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8. (U) Venezuelan religious leaders (Catholic, Jewish, and
Protestant) issued a joint call for Venezuelans to maintain
the peace, vote and respect the results of the August 15
referendum. They also called upon political leaders, both
Chavista and opposition, to prevent any actions that might
generate violence from their supporters. Although they
maintain good relations, the joint statement by Archbishop
Baltazar Porras, President of the Catholic Episcopal

Conference of Venezuela; Pynchas Brener, principal rabbi of
the Ashkenazi Caracas; and Reverend Samuel Olsen, President
of the Evangelical Council, is unusual. At the same time,
Pope John Paul II mentioned Venezuela in his weekly audience
from the Vatican expressing his hopes, "that a climate of
peace, serenity and reconciliation reign" in Venezuela.

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Chavez Advisor on Possibilities and Post-Referendum Plans
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9. (C) Chavez's advisor on North American issues in the
Office of the Presidency (and U.S./French/British citizen)
Alexander Main told Poloff August 11 that everyone in the
GOV, including himself, has been focused on the "No"
campaign, but that once Chavez wins, the GOV will be able to
focus more on their jobs and governing the country. Main
asserted that there would be no violence because the
Venezuelans are tired of it. Main said one of his principle
responsibilities now is to advise Chavez on how to achieve
better relations with the U.S.



10. (C) Main said if the GOV won, it would continue with the
"misiones" but would deepen their initiatives for poverty
reduction, infrastructure, and fighting corruption. Asked if
these plans included peace and reconciliation efforts, he
said sure but didn't elaborate. Main said Chavez thrives on
the crisis but has plans for the country that he would like
to carry out. Main said the hoped that when Chavez wins the
referendum, the opposition will finally allow him to govern.


11. (C) Asked what the GOV will do post referendum if Chavez
loses, Main said Chavez won't lose. Main questioned if Poloff
had seen the number of people at the pro-government march
August 8. Pressed, he said Chavez would accept the results
from the National Electoral Council (CNE) as he had after the
signature repairs in May 2004 (which he said was a "real
psychological blow") and immediately begin campaigning, which
Chavez is good at.

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MVR Deputy Offers Outlook
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12. (C) Fifth Republic Movement (MVR) National Assembly
Deputy Luis Acuna told Poloff August 11 that whoever wins the
referendum needs to win by a large margin to establish
legitimacy. Acuna said the polls indicated Chavez was going
to win; however, he did not appear confident. If Chavez were
to win the referendum, Acuna believes, the President would
choose a policy of reconciliation and not retaliation. Acuna
complained that the opposition abandoned the National
Assembly as the legitimate forum for settling political
disagreements and attacked the 2003 OAS talks as usurpation.
The referendum would establish the real balance of forces in
the country and, if Chavez won, allow the political debate to
return to the Assembly.
Shapiro


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2004CARACA02597 - CONFIDENTIAL