VENEZUELAN REFERENDUM UPDATE: AUGUST 9

C O N F I D E N T I A L CARACAS 002547 SIPDIS NSC FOR CBARTON USCINCSO ALSO FOR POLAD STATE PASS USAID FOR DCHA/OTI E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/03/2014 TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM KDEM VE SUBJECT: VENEZUELAN REFERENDUM UPDATE: AUGUST 9 Classified By: Abelardo A. Arias, Political Counselor, for Reason 1.5(d) -------------- Summary -------------- ¶1. (U) National Electoral Council (CNE) director Jorge Rodriguez and Valter Pecly Moreira, head of the Organization of American States (OAS) observation mission in Venezuela, told reporters the audit of 150 electronic voting machines on August 8 was a success. Also on August 8, Chavez supporters and opponents held large and peaceful campaign rallies in Caracas. Miranda State Governor Enrique Mendoza said the opposition Coordinadora Democratica would begin publicizing referendum result trends at 3 pm on August 15 and would continue with hourly updates. CNE director Rodriguez filed a criminal complaint charging that the opposition committed fraud in the November signature drive. The opposition primary to select an opposition presidential candidate now appears to be slated for September 5, according to Sumate. End Summary. -------------- Audit Declared Successful -------------- ¶2. (U) Jorge Rodriguez of the National Electoral Council (CNE) announced that the technical audit performed August 8 on 150 electronic voting machines was a success and had a zero percent error rate. Rodriguez declared the data transmission through the phone lines was also successful and had no inconsistencies. Valter Pecly Moreira, head of the Organization of American States (OAS) observation mission in Venezuela, told reporters that he was satisfied with the results of the audit. The technical teams from the opposition's Coordinadora Democratica and President Hugo Chavez's Comando Maisanta both withheld judgment, saying only that the process was not yet complete. -------------- Rally Sunday -------------- ¶3. (U) Chavez supporters and opponents held large and peaceful campaign rallies on August 8 in Caracas. Speaking at the "No" rally, President Chavez urged everyone to vote, and vote early, on August 15 regardless inconveniences like bad weather and lack of public transportation. Chavez denied there was any fear factor leading up to the referendum vote, saying that for the first time no one was afraid to say what he thought. Chavez said that the opposition had created the appearance of fear with the help of the media. Vice-president Jose Vincente Rangel declared the pro-GOV event a success, challenging the opposition to produce even one third as many supporters for a public gathering. The opposition held a concert/rally also attended by thousands at three points in the eastern part of Caracas. Speaking at the opposition's event, governor of Miranda state Enrique Mendoza, assured voters that a "Si" win was inevitable and urged voters to vote early to avoid any sabotage attempts by Chavistas. The Chavista University student federation sent 100 people to demonstrate peacefully outside the US. Embassy August 8. The leader accused the US of sending troops to Venezuela. The DCM rejected this claim and stressed the US supported the referendum process. -------------- Announcing Results -------------- ¶4. (U) During the opposition rally on August 8, Miranda State Governor Enrique Mendoza announced the Coordinadora Democratica would begin publicizing referendum result trends at 3 pm on August 15 and would continue with hourly updates. He assured those at the event the decision did not violate the CNE agreement that only prohibits announcing numbers to the media. Mendoza said that the opposition would find a way of legally informing the people early so Chavez and his supporters could not steal the vote. Rodriguez leveled personal attacks against Coordinadora Democratica leader Enrique Mendoza and Accion Democratica (AD) leader Henry Ramos for comments the two made questioning the objectivity of Rodriguez and the CNE. Vice-president Rangel told the assembled diplomatic corps on August 9 that the GOV would disrupt any television channel that would broadcast Mendoza's 3 pm update. The law, Rangel said, is clear. The election results may not be commented upon before the polls close. -------------- Accusations -------------- ¶5. (U) CNE Director Rodriguez presented a criminal complaint to the Attorney General's office alleging the opposition perpetrated fraud during the November 2003 signature drives to petition for the recall of President Chavez. Rodriguez claimed that the fingerprints of more than 10,000 people appear multiple times in the petition forms. Rodriguez claimed that the immigration office (ONIDEX) had matched some of the fingerprints with their records. A Chavez supporter appearing with Rodriguez at the Attorney General's office claimed the alleged fraud amounted to 250,000 - 300,000 bogus signatures. ¶6. (U) Rodriguez further suggested that a car fire in his sister's parking garage August 6 was purposefully set to intimidate him and his family. Coincidentally, authorities discovered a Smartmatic voting machine in the vehicle next to the one that burned. Smartmatic officials told the press the machine was in the rightful possession of Smartmatic's training coordinator for Caracas and that the machine carried only test software. -------------- Missed Opportunities -------------- ¶7. (C) A political consultant advising the Coordinadora Democratica told the Ambassador the opposition missed several opportunities in its campaign. The consultant said the Coordinadora convinced itself that is was sufficient to have Chavez run against Chavez despite the polling data to the contrary. The opposition never campaigned to the undecided voters, for example, only to those already committed. Meanwhile, the economy is improving, Chavez's "missions" are very popular, and Chavez is running a good campaign. The opposition, according to the consultant, could win, but the vote would be close. So close, in fact, that it is within the margin that Chavez and the CNE could steal. -------------- Sumate Moderately Optimistic -------------- ¶8. (C) Sumate representative Maria Corina Machado told PolCouns August 8 she is moderately optimistic that the opposition will succeed in recalling President Chavez August 15, but is concerned that opposition political leaders may bungle the victory a la the Carmona debacle. Machado said the problems with persons being relocated from one voting center to another without their knowledge was of minor proportions. Of greater concern, she said, was the intimidation factor, especially related to the unresolved issue of the use of fingerprinting machines. Sumate found that among voters in the lower economic strata there is fear "based on the myth of the machines' capabilities" that the government will indeed learn how people voted, according to Machado. ¶9. (C) Machado said the opposition may have the rules for a primary to choose its presidential candidate before August ¶15. She said four former electoral council presidents had agreed to form a pseudo electoral council that would oversee the process. The opposition is now looking at September 5 as the date for the primary. Machado recognized that the date would theoretically leave a candidate almost no time to campaign if the CNE stuck to the 30-day post referendum vote timeframe. -------------- Possible Outcome Has Violence Under Control -------------- ¶10. (C) Movimiento Quinto Republica (MVR) Deputy Roberto Quintero from Zulia state told PolOff on August 9 that President Chavez would accept the results of the Presidential recall referendum. He said many people had advised Chavez to claim fraud and reject the referendum after the signature affirmation process, but that Chavez had rejected this advice. Quintero said that there were elements in the MVR that were not democratic, ranging from communist to fascist in his view, but that Chavez himself was committed to a democratic project. ¶11. (C) Quintero said the organizational weakness of the MVR in Zulia had allowed radical elements to take a leading role. The violence in Maracaibo on August 5, he said, was an attack by Chavista radicals against the local Maisanta offices. Quintero insisted that violent groups were a small minority in Chavismo, and that they would not be able to act during the referendum, due to the presence of the army in the streets. Shapiro NNNN 2004CARACA02547 - CONFIDENTIAL