VENEZUELAN REFERENDUM UPDATE: AUGUST 6

C O N F I D E N T I A L CARACAS 002540 SIPDIS LIMA ALSO FOR A/S NORIEGA NSC FOR CBARTON USCINCSO ALSO FOR POLAD STATE PASS USAID FOR DCHA/OTI E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/03/2014 TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM KDEM VE SUBJECT: VENEZUELAN REFERENDUM UPDATE: AUGUST 6 Classified By: Abelardo A. Arias, Political Counselor for Reason 1.4(d) -------------- Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) The National Electoral Council (CNE) unanimously agreed to go to a manual vote if the electronic voting machines fail August 15. The CNE also finalized plans to audit the electronic voting machines on August 8. Unidentified persons attacked a pro-Chavez campaign office in Maracaibo August 5, and in Caracas Chavez supporters attacked government opponents as they attempted to set up a campaign point in a square in the capital. Venezuelans who petitioned the CNE between July 24 and August 4 to correct the change of their voting location done without their consent by the electoral authorities will be allowed to vote manually August 15, according to CNE Director Jorge Rodriguez. The Coordinadora Democratica urged the CNE reconsider how to use fingerprint machines at voting centers because, among other things, the machines have an error rate of more than 2% and thus would disenfranchise hundreds of thousands of voters outright. The ex-president of the Venezuelan Workers Confederation (CTV) Carlos Ortega said he returned from Costa Rica where he enjoyed political asylum to Venezuela because he is concerned about the August 15 referendum and wanted to join opposition efforts to oust President Hugo Chavez. Despite worries about Chavez performing small acts of fraud that are undetected, opposition leaders still feel confident that the "Si" will win on August 15. End Summary. -------------- Contingency Plan -------------- ¶2. (U) The National Electoral Council (CNE) unanimously agreed August 5 that if electronic voting machines failed August 15 and could not be repaired or substituted, the CNE would decide if voting center would go to a manual vote. Under the rules, the CNE technicians will have half an hour to fix failed machines. If the machines cannot be fixed, the CNE has one hour to substitute the failed machine with one that works. If after one hour and a half, the electronic voting machines are still not working, the CNE directors must decide if voting at the center will proceed manually. CNE director Jorge Rodriguez reporters that on August 15, the CNE directorate will be in permanent session to attend to problems that arise immediately. If any problems arise with the transmission of data or audit after the election, the removable memory drives of the machine will be transported to CNE headquarters with the escort of the armed force's Plan Republica. -------------- Agreeing to the Audit -------------- ¶3. (U) Rodriguez also announced August 5 that the CNE will audit 200 electronic voting machines on August 8 to ensure there is nothing inside the program that could modify the results of the August 15 referendum. Technical experts from the opposition's Coordinadora Democratica and President Hugo Chavez's Comando Maisanta will participate. If the CNE discovers inconsistencies between the preset number of votes for each machine and the audit results, it will announce a manual vote for referendum. -------------- Violence -------------- ¶4. (U) Violence broke out in Caracas and Maracaibo on August 5, according to press reports. In Caracas' Plaza Candelaria, opposition supporters who were putting up a "Si" campaign booth said they were attacked by Chavez supports who reportedly were not from their neighborhood. Four people were injured, but no one was killed. The opposition supporters accused the National Guard of siding with the attackers and launching tear gas at the opposition booth while allowing Chavez supporters to fire upon the booth with guns. A National Guard tank was installed and the military took over control of the plaza. ¶5. (U) In Maracaibo, unidentified persons attacked a pro-Chavez campaign office while Minister of Labor Maria Cristina Iglesias worked inside with other high-ranking Chavez supporters on the referendum campaign. The government claims the attackers were opposition supporters, but local journalists report that the incident was a conflict between rival groups of Chavez supporters. Iglesias dismissed the possibility that Chavez supporters were involved. Four people where injured, one with a bullet wound in the chest, but no one was killed. Amateur video footage broadcast on all-news channel Globovision showed a man coming out of the campaign offices armed with a sub-machine and minutes later another man interceding between two groups of people standing near the damaged cars parked outside the building. The unknown attackers were heavily armed with machine guns. -------------- Voters Go Manual -------------- ¶6. (U) Venezuelans who petitioned the CNE between July 24 and August 4 to correct the change of their voting location done without their consent by the electoral authorities will be allowed to vote manually August 15, according to Jorge Rodriguez of the CNE. These voters will be allowed to vote at their original voting location, with their information will be included in supplementary notebooks provided to each voting centers on August 15. Military personnel assigned to voting centers as part of Plan Republica will also vote by paper ballot, according to press reports. The CNE estimates that about 30 people per voting table will vote manually because of the limits on the capacity of the voting machines. To accommodate manual voting, the CNE ordered 30% of the electoral registry, approximately 4.5 million, paper ballots printed for August 15. -------------- Fingerprint Machines -------------- ¶7. (U) The Coordinadora Democratica (CD) urged international observers to address with the CNE the issue of possible irregularities with the use of fingerprint machines. CD representative Carlos Quiroz told reporters that taking at face value the statements by the purveyors of machines that they count a two percent error rate, using the machines would mean hundreds of thousands of Venezuelans would be disenfranchised randomly. The CD used a legal study prepared by university rectors to back its position. -------------- Union Leader Returns -------------- ¶8. (C) Venezuelan Workers Confederation (CTV) President Carlos Ortega told reporters via telephone that he returned to Venezuela because he is concerned about the August 15 referendum and wanted to join opposition efforts to oust President Hugo Chavez. Ortega, who did not disclose his location, faces charges of treason for his role in the two-month national strike from December 2002 to January 2003. He was given political asylum in Costa Rica in 2003, but Costa Rican officials asked him to leave in March 2004 after he reportedly said he would return to Venezuela to work clandestinely to oust Chavez. Costa Rican officials, according to press reports, confirmed Ortega departed the country July 30 but could not confirm his destination. Manuel Cova, the current Secretary General of CTV, told reporters that he had spoken with Ortega and could confirm that he was in Venezuela. (Comment: We are convinced the Coordinadora Democratica did not approve of Ortega's move; his return only serves to remind voters of the failed 2002-2003 strike. End Comment.) -------------- It's the Little Things -------------- ¶9. (C) Fernando Martinez Mottola, member of Coordinadora Democratica, told Poloffs August 2 he is concerned that Chavez is committing small acts of fraud that are hard to criticize, but when aggregated amount to major irregularities. His examples included the continuing incidents of threats against government employees, last minute changes in voting stations, the rumor that the fingerprint machines will allow the government to track votes, efforts to stymie international observer missions and the CNE's refusal to conduct an immediate audit. Mottola said he is not very worried bout the voting machines themselves because he felt it would be hard to interfere with the data trnsmission, a sentiment Juan Fernandez of the oppsitions Petroleum People echoed in a conversation ith PolOff August 4. -------------- Opposition Leaders Confident -------------- ¶10. (C) In meetings with the Ambassador August 4, former Carabobo State Governor Henrique Salas Roemer and Juan Fernandez were optimistic about the referendum. Salas and Fernandez said Chavez's support peaked with the barrage of propaganda and will fall off some before the recall vote. Meanwhile, because of limited funds, the "Si" campaign has held back and has just begun to ramp up their efforts, which will result in a noticeable push as August 15 approaches. Second, the two opposition leaders questioned the validity of Venezuelan polls, asserting that some people are afraid to speak honestly for fear that the government or their neighbors might find out. They feel that there are people on both sides who fall into this category, but that the majority are those who tell pollsters "No" but plan to vote "Yes." Shapiro NNNN 2004CARACA02540 - CONFIDENTIAL