CODEL BALLENGER: MEETING WITH OAS REPRESENTATIVE

C O N F I D E N T I A L CARACAS 002516 SIPDIS BOGOTA AND LIMA ALSO FOR A/S NORIEGA NSC FOR CBARTON USCINCSO ALSO FOR POLAD STATE PASS USAID FOR DCHA/OTI E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/03/2014 TAGS: PREL PHUM KDEM VE OAS SUBJECT: CODEL BALLENGER: MEETING WITH OAS REPRESENTATIVE Classified By: Abelardo A. Arias, Political Counselor, for Reason 1.5(d ) -------------- Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) Representatives Cass Ballenger, Gregory Meeks, Bill Delahunt and Butch Otter, accompanied by the Ambassador, met with Organization of American States (OAS) representative Patricio Carbacho at the Ambassador's residence August 3. Carbacho said he believed the OAS observer mission could do its job under current conditions. He was concerned Chavez might find a way to delay the referendum until after August 19, possibly using electronic voting machine failures as a pretext since no contingency plan currently exists. End Summary. -------------- OAS Advantage Point -------------- ¶2. (C) Representatives Cass Ballenger (R-NC),Gregory Meeks (D-NY),Bill Delahunt (D-MA) and Butch Otter (R-ID) met Organization of American States (OAS) representative Patricio Carbacho at the Ambassador's residence August 3. Carbacho contrasted the process by which the OAS received its invitation to observe with the European Union (EU) attempts to do the same. He asserted that the lack of EU observers is beneficial to the democratic process in Venezuela because it heightens the reliance of the GOV on the OAS and Carter Center (CC) as the only technically experienced observers of the election. ¶3. (C) Carbacho lauded OAS Secretary General Cesar Gaviria's appointment of Brazilian Ambassador to the OAS, Valter Pecly Moreira, to lead the OAS observer mission. According to Carbacho, Chavez's well-publicized respect for Brazil will make it difficult for him to dismiss Ambassador Pecly, and therefore, any statements made on behalf of the OAS observation mission. Carbacho said that the OAS believes it has several advantages and will be able to adequately perform its duties as an international observer. -------------- Quick Count -------------- ¶4. (C) Carbacho told the Congressmen that the OAS quick count could accurately predict, with a 3% margin of error, the outcome of the referendum and reveal inconsistencies if they existed. He indicated that in 61 previous electoral observations, including the signature collection in November 
2003 and the appeals in May, the OAS was accurate. For the August 15 referendum, the CNE surveys and chooses the tables for the quick counts, he said, and the OAS will then select their quick count tables from among the CNE's choices. Jessica Lewis, democratic staffer for the Western Hemisphere sub-committee of the House International Relations Committee, reiterated Sumate's concerns about CNE involvement in the quick count to Carbacho. Carbacho said he was not concerned, and the process would be statistically reliable. He said that the major difference between the August 15 referendum and previous processes would be that the OAS would make no announcements as the process develops. ¶5. (C) The Ambassador and Congressmen asked if software problems and the 200 electronic voting machines that no one appears to know the location of could cause problems during the referendum. Carbacho said that the OAS quick count would be valid and indicate inconsistencies if any tricks were used. Carbacho remarked there would be 45 OAS observers present. The Ambassador noted that the Carter Center would have a similar number. When Representative Delahunt asked if the OAS and Carter Center would be working together, Carbacho said that while there might be coordination, each organization was separate. The Ambassador pointed out that when former President Jimmy Carter came to Venezuela, Carter insisted upon his independence from the Embassy, as it should be. Carbacho pointed out that the OAS observer mission was also independent of the permanent OAS mission in Venezuela. -------------- Predictions -------------- ¶6. (C) Carbacho predicted 5.9 million people would vote for the "Si" on August 15 while only around 3 million people would vote for the "No". The range should be wide enough to make GOV accusations for fraud unbelievable. The Ambassador pointed out that both sides were absolutely convinced they would win the referendum. He thought that the voter turn out would be unprecedented for Venezuela, perhaps higher than Carbacho was predicting. Carbacho concurred with the Ambassador, citing Venezuelans high turn out on August 1 to sign the opposition's Governance Agreement without much political organization. The Ambassador compared it to 20% of the United States population turning out to sign the Democratic or Republican platform. -------------- To Be or Not To Be Concerned -------------- ¶7. (C) Responding to questions, Carbacho said he was concerned that Chavez knew what the numbers were and would find a method to make the CNE fail for the August 15 referendum. He said that the OAS still had not received any indication there was a contingency plan for machine failure, and that could be a possible glitch. He said a possible solution to the concern about fingerprint machine failures is to have people fingerprinted after they voted, but he expressed doubt that the CNE would accept that solution. When asked if a higher-than-expected turnout could produce logistical problems, Carbacho was confident that there would be more than enough time for anyone interested to vote. He said that the voting centers would open at 7 am and be open at least 10 hours. Since each center should have no more than 600 voters per machine, he did not foresee a problem. 8.(C) Carbacho implied that the neutrality of the CNE was questionable. He noted that Francisco Carrasquero, the President of the CNE, was applying for one of the 10 new positions at the expanding Supreme Court (TSJ). Carbacho said that since the National Assembly was going to choose the additional judges, and Chavez's Quinta Republica party (MVR) had a majority, it was likely they would choose Carrasquero for a plum 12-year appointment to the TSJ. -------------- Comment -------------- ¶9. (C) Carbacho was confident the OAS's observation team would be able to do its job adequately under the present conditions. He expressed some concern about August 15 delays, but did not appear overly worried. He agreed with the Ambassador that there might be a higher-than-expected voter turnout. ¶10. (U) Codel Ballenger did not have the opportunity to clear this message before its departure. Shapiro NNNN 2004CARACA02516 - CONFIDENTIAL