VENEZUELAN GOVERNMENT AND NGOS UNLIKELY TO SUPPORT

C O N F I D E N T I A L CARACAS 002455 SIPDIS NSC FOR CBARTON USCINCSO ALSO FOR POLAD STATE PASS USAID FOR DCHA/OTI WHA/CCA E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/27/2014 TAGS: PREL PHUM CU VE SUBJECT: VENEZUELAN GOVERNMENT AND NGOS UNLIKELY TO SUPPORT CUBAN DEMOCRACY REF: SECSTATE 152813 Classified By: Abelardo A. Arias, Political Counselor, for Reasons 1.5 (d) ¶1. (C) President Hugo Chavez's support for Fidel Castro and antagonism towards the United States is well documentd and makes GOV support for a democratic transition in Cuba unfeasible. The cooperation that exists between Castro and Chavez is extensive, as evidenced by the over 10,000 Cuban doctors and teachers working in Venezuela and the amount of subsidized oil flowing from Venezuela into Cuba. Chavez,s regard for Castro is deeply rooted and unlikely to change in the foreseeable future. ¶2. (C) Chavez and his supporters, as well as those who oppose his presidency, are furiously campaigning for the August 15 presidential referendum to determine if Chavez is to finish out the last 2 years of his presidency. Venezuelan civil society and NGOs, who might otherwise be supportive of efforts to hasten democracy in Cuba, are concentrating their efforts on a democratic resolution to the political tensions in Venezuela. While the political situation remains unstable in Venezuela, local NGOs are unlikely to divert resources to Cuba. -------------- Comment -------------- ¶3. (C) Chavez,s relationship to Castro and political tensions in Venezuela rule out GOV and NGO participation to hasten democratic reform in Cuba. The August 15 referendum and possible presidential election a month afterwards are the focal point of Venezuela,s political energy. In the aftermath, Venezuela will likely face some degree of political uncertainty or instability. The GOV and local NGOs are unlikely to participate in any democratic efforts in Cuba through the end of 2004 regardless of the outcome of the referendum and possible elections. Shapiro NNNN 2004CARACA02455 - CONFIDENTIAL