OPPOSITION UNITES BEHIND GOVERNANCE ACCORD

C O N F I D E N T I A L CARACAS 002432 SIPDIS NSC FOR CBARTON USCINCSO ALSO FOR POLAD STATE PASS USAID FOR DCHA/OTI E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/30/2014 TAGS: PGOV KDEM PHUM VE SUBJECT: OPPOSITION UNITES BEHIND GOVERNANCE ACCORD REF: CARACAS 2248 Classified By: A/DCM Abelardo A. Arias for Reason 1.5 (d). -------------- Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) The Coordinadora Democratica is calling on Venezuelans to sign its National Accord for Social Justice and Democratic Peace August 1. Coordinadora leaders publicly signed the document, which establishes a broad framework for an opposition-led transition government, should President Chavez be recalled, on July 25. The concise document outlines principles of unity, reconstruction, reconciliation, and peace and recommends broad political, economic, and social reforms. The Accord formally recommends a primary election to determine the unified opposition candidate in a follow-on presidential election, who would promise not to seek immediate re-election in 2006. End summary. -------------- A United Accord -------------- ¶2. (U) Coordinadora Democratica leaders from 60 political parties and civil society organizations signed the National Accord for Social Justice and Democratic Peace, also called the Governance Accord or Pact, on July 25. The opposition leaders sat on the stage as actress Eva Gutierrez read the four-page document, which outlines broad themes and goals for an opposition-led transition government. Unity is the overall theme, while reconstruction, reconciliation, and peace are core principles of the Accord. The Coordinadora leaders then called upon all supporters to sign the Accord on August 1 at any of the 8,330 voting centers around the country. Beyond signing the Accord, this opposition event will allow people to verify where they are to vote August 15. (Note: This verification is a major opposition concern since it was learned that the National Electoral Council (CNE) had changed the location where more than one million voters are to go.) ¶3. (U) The Accord, designed to "establish the foundation to the solutions of the significant problems of Venezuela," outlines broad goals in five major areas: social issues, economic recovery, political and constitutional reforms, the judicial system, and international relations. The Accord proposes immediate social programs to relieve hunger and unemployment, an improvement in health and education systems, and an emergency plan to protect citizens' security. The economic goals focus on the recovery of the petroleum sector, but avoid direct mention of privatization or foreign investment. ¶4. (U) The Accord's proposed political reforms focus on constitutional reform, such as the reduction in presidential power, the focus on decentralization, and the reform of the military. In addition, the proposed political reforms call for the re-establishment of a bicameral legislature and the creation of a run-off presidential election. The judicial goals include a declaration of emergency on the judicial system, a referendum on the Supreme Court law, and a reassessment of the appointment process for judges. The Accord also recommends a foreign policy strategy that advances the strategic interests of the country and respects international conventions. The Accord and Plan Consenso cover many common themes (reftel). However, the Accord makes broad recommendations and sets out guiding principles for an opposition-led transition government compared to the more specific, action-oriented Plan Consenso Pais. -------------- Opposition Primary Implications -------------- ¶5. (C) The Accord states that the opposition will hold a primary election to choose a unified, opposition candidate for a follow-on presidential election. It requires that the chosen candidate commit to not seek immediate re-election in ¶2006. Alfredo Larrazabal, Sumate leader in charge of the primaries, told poloff on July 28 that this re-election commitment is a "moral obligation" and that it will have little effect on who is a candidate for the opposition primary. The Accord, however, does not specify whether the primary will be open or closed, nor when it will take place. (Note: An open primary would permit all registered voters to participate while a closed primary would only allow persons who signed to recall the President to participate.) Larrazabal said the group organizing the primary has maintained their recommendation of August 29 as the date of the referendum. -------------- The Opposition Unites -------------- ¶6. (U) At the Accord's unveiling, opposition leaders joined and raised hands in a symbolic show of unity after the official release of the Accord. Media reports portray a unified opposition, determined to address the issues and present a viable alternative to the Chavez administration. Henrique Salas Roemer, Carabobo State governor and possible primary candidate, said that this Accord unites the country and creates a legitimate process to choose an opposition unified candidate. Julio Borges, President of Primero Justicia, said the Accord focuses the referendum campaign on the problems of Venezuela and provides solutions. ¶7. (C) Aurelio Concheso, President of the libertarian think tank Center for the Dissemination of Economic Information (CEDICE),told poloff on June 29 that the Governance Accord is a tangible sign of the opposition's unity. He asserted that the Accord is a political strategy that unites the opposition. More important than the Mendoza-Borges-Salas embrace, Concheso believes that the unity demonstrated by leaders from Bandera Roja (a left-wing, former guerrilla party),Fedecamaras (Venezuela's umbrella business organization),and the CTV (the Venezuelan Workers' Confederation) is essential to opposition success. Concheso prognosticated that the left-leaning parties would be given socially-sensitive ministries (i.e. health and education), the center-based parties would control national security and international relations ministries (i.e. Defense, Foreign Relations),and the right-aligned parties would lead fiscal and monetary institutions (i.e. Finance Ministry). -------------- Comment -------------- ¶8. (C) The Governance Accord is a tangible demonstration of unity by a politically diverse opposition. The broad scope of the Accord provides a framework and a set of principles to guide an opposition-led transition government. The most controversial point in the Accord will be the statement that an opposition transition president must commit to not run for re-election in 2006. This small clause, if honored, would influence the electoral primary landscape, most likely eliminating Henrique Salas Roemer (who wants to run also in 2006) and further elevating Enrique Mendoza's candidacy. McFarland NNNN 2004CARACA02432 - CONFIDENTIAL