OPPOSITION LAUNCHES "NATIONAL CONSENSUS PLAN"

C O N F I D E N T I A L CARACAS 002248 SIPDIS NSC FOR CBARTON USCINCSO ALSO FOR POLAD STATE PASS USAID FOR DCHA/OTI E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/15/2014 TAGS: PGOV KDEM VE SUBJECT: OPPOSITION LAUNCHES "NATIONAL CONSENSUS PLAN" REF: CARACAS 2707 Classified By: Abelardo A. Arias, Acting Deputy Chief of Mission, for R eason 1.4 (d). -------------- Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) On June 9, the Coordinadora Democratica (CD) launched "Plan Consenso Pais" (National Consensus Plan),a set of proposals that address the key social problems in Venezuela. The four major points of the plan are employment, security, health, and education. The plan serves as a guide for reconciliation and reconstruction for a potential unified opposition government. The official unveiling of this plan is a positive, pro-active step for the opposition. President Chavez and other GoV officials strongly attacked the Plan, calling it a Consenso Pa' Bush (Consensus for Bush) financed by the U.S. government. Chavez supported his criticism by referring to the work of Venezuelan think tank CEDICE, which influenced the Coordinadora's plan, but was more neoliberal and capitalist in scope. End summary. -------------- Rally for the "Yes" Vote -------------- ¶2. (C) Poloff attended the launching of Plan Consenso Pais on June 9 by the Coordinadora Democratica (CD) in Caracas. The CD distributed color pamphlets describing the four main points of the Plan (employment, security, health, and education) and 117-page white booklets that outline the ideas, proposals, and mechanics of the Plan. To begin the event, the CD played ominous music while showing a short video depicting violence, poverty, and the social problems of Venezuela. Diego Bautista Urbaneja, director of Plan Consenso Pais, then officially unveiled the Plan and its major points. Behind Urbaneja, civil society leaders sat in bleachers. In an organized manner, the leaders stood up and described the current social problems and the Plan's response. To conclude, the CD played upbeat Venezuelan music and a video depicting hopeful Venezuelans and beautiful places around the country. The civil society leaders stood in unison, raised their Plan booklets, and shouted "Claro que Si!" (Yes of course!). While key CD political leaders sat in the first two rows of the audience (i.e. Juan Fernandez, Pompeyo Marquez, Enrique Mendoza),no prominent leader spoke during the event. -------------- The Plan of Plans �0A; -------------- ¶3. (U) The main pillars of the Plan, featured in a one-page pamphlet, are employment, security, health, and education. The pamphlet describes each problem and then offers a concise opposition response and action plan. The CD considers this Plan as a guide for a transition government, "a proposal for a better Venezuela." After an introduction describing the overall vision and leadership of this Plan, seven chapters provide action plans on the following specific issues: employment, security, social issues (i.e. health, education), decentralization, reconciliation, foreign relations, and petroleum. ¶4. (U) Along with the "governance pact," Plan Consenso Pais is designed to ensure a smooth transition process and an effective governance strategy. Within the seven chapters, there are twelve themes that outline the economic, social, and political transition plans. Economic themes -- employment: proposals to create and promote jobs in all sectors -- telecommunications: increase global access; keep current Organic Law of Telecommunications -- petroleum: promote investment; reform policies to improve production -- debt reduction: reduce internal and external debt -- economic security: fiscal reform; improve tax collection; reduce tax evasion Social themes -- education: create a decentralized educational system that promotes school autonomy -- social development: create new ministry of social development; decentralize efforts -- physical security: increase police forces Political themes -- reconciliation: promote an inclusive political process -- decentralization: give money and power to states and municipalities -- transition and continuity: maintain public policies and works through the transition period -- rule of law: respect institutions, ensure the integrity of the judicial system The entire Plan is at http://www.consensopais.com. ¶5. (U) Urbaneja described the year-long process to create this Plan, saying the CD organized town meetings and met with numerous political parties, civil society groups, and experts. The introduction of the booklet describes the Plan as a combination of many plans, providing a unified plan for an opposition-led government. The booklet lists the members of the CD commission who organized the Plan, but it does not name the organizations or parties involved in the Plan's creation. -------------- A Positive Step for the Opposition -------------- ¶6. (C) After the event, Enrique Mendoza, Miranda state governor and CD leader, asserted that employment will be the major goal of the plan as well as decentralization and reconciliation. Juan Fernandez, opposition leader and President of Gente de Petroleo, told poloff on June 8 that the Plan and its launch are meant to satisfy the middle and upper-class voters who want to see a concrete plan. He recognized, however, that the CD expects the Plan to be an ineffective tool to reach poorer voters. -------------- Other Plans of the Opposition -------------- ¶7. (C) Plan Consenso Pais was first published in March 2004. Other plans, developed by opposition-aligned groups and organizations, existed before Plan Consenso Pais. Most notably, a group of researchers from private and public universities presented the "Social Agreement for Development and the Elimination of Poverty" in August 2003 (reftel). Social scientists from Andres Bello Catholic University, Simon Bolivar University, Central University of Venezuela, and the Institute for Graduate Studies in Management produced a 138-page report that addressed policy reforms in economics, social programs, and institutions. The Social Agreement's coordinator described the plan as "a post-referendum governance plan centered on job creation as the focus of eliminating poverty." While this document shares common themes with Plan Consenso Pais, it received little publicity. -------------- Immediate GoV Reaction - Consenso Pa' Bush -------------- ¶8. (U) Dario Vivas, MVR Deputy and Comando Maisanta leader, talked with a reporter from state-run Venezolana de Television on July 9 after the launching of Plan Consenso Pais. While he applauded the opposition's move away from its alleged violent past of coups and strikes, he warned that this plan is a return to the past, particularly economic reforms highlighted in the Plan. Beyond attacking the plan, Vivas made several ad hominem attacks on opposition figures, including billionaire Gustavo Cisneros. The pro-government tabloid Diario Vea asserted that the Plan will eliminate the Missions (GoV social programs),reinstate coup-plotting military leaders, and privatize PDVSA (the state-run oil company). ¶9. (U) President Hugo Chavez attacked the Plan Consenso Pais on June 10 and 11, calling it the "Consenso Pa' Bush" (The Consensus for Bush). He said the plan was anti-Christian and from the devil. On June 11, he devoted close to an hour of his weekly national radio-television address, Alo Presidente, to criticism of the Plan. Chavez claimed that the Center for International Private Enterprise (CIPE),one of the National Endowment for Democracy's (NED) core institutes, gave $316,000 to the Venezuelan Center for Dissemination of Economic Information (CEDICE) to work on this plan in 2003. He asserted that CEDICE directly worked with the CD to create the "interventionist" Plan Consenso Pais. Chavez read to his audience from a 2003 report to CIPE by CEDICE, titled "Project Consensus to Build a National Agenda," and claimed that this was evidence of US hands in the current Plan Consenso Pais. Diego Bautista Urbaneja, the Plan Consenso Pais director, denied Chavez's allegations and said that Chavez confused Plan Consenso Pais with Construyendo Consensos Para Una Venezuela Libre (Building Consensus for a Free Venezuela). ¶10. (C) CEDICE reports, made public through a FOIA request by Chavez supporters in the U.S., show that Diego Bautista Urbaneja met with CEDICE leaders. In addition, CEDICE asserts that the CD Commission did use the consensus document as a "basis" for its Plan Consenso Pais. However, the CEDICE and Coordinadora documents differ in scope and recommendations. There are common themes, such as reconciliation, reconstruction, and decentralization, but the timeframe of Plan Consenso Pais is the transition period while Construyendo Consensos is a longer-term vision. Also, Construyendo Consensos outwardly supports more neoliberal, capitalist policies, such as privatization and fiscal austerity measures, than the proposals in Plan Consenso Pais. While some opposition political parties and civil society organizations participated in both Construyendo Consensos and Plan Consenso Pais, there appears to be no money used by CEDICE to fund Coordinadora efforts to create Plan Consenso Pais. -------------- Comment -------------- ¶11. (C) The opposition has provided a concrete set of proposals in Plan Consenso Pais. The Plan provides over 200 goals for a unified opposition transition government, which cover a comprehensive list of political, social, and economic issues. The opposition is improving its organizational capacity and beginning its mobilization for the August 15 referendum. President Chavez's attacks and attempts to discredit the Plan indicate concern about the opposition's focus on issues such as security, health care, and jobs. Rather than rebut the points on substantive grounds, Chavez instead resorted to his favorite whipping boy, the U.S., a formula that works with his core constituency, and possibly with some uncommitted voters. McFarland NNNN 2004CARACA02248 - CONFIDENTIAL